After a season where the Mets missed the playoffs by as narrow a margin as they did, “what if” questions inevitably abound in the post mortem analysis. Of all of those “what if” questions, one that looms
surprisingly large is, “What if Griffin Canning hadn’t ruptured his Achilles?” It feels strange typing those words because when the Mets signed Canning to a one-year, $4.25 million deal last offseason, no one envisioned he would play as large of a role on the team as he did.
After leading the league in earned runs in 2024 and getting traded by the Angels and then non-tendered by the Braves, Canning found himself with a job in the Mets’ rotation to begin the season because of injuries to Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas. Canning looked like an entirely different pitcher in spring training, posting a 1.88 ERA and striking out 22 batters in 14 1/3 innings—a far higher rate than his career norms and a higher rate than anyone else on the team in Grapefruit League action. At the time when Canning was in the running for the 2025 King of Spring Training contest, I wrote:
The Mets have refined Canning’s pitch mix, adding a two-seam sinker and bringing back a cutter he used to throw to serve as a weapon against lefties. Canning’s changeup ranked in the top 20 in run value among starters last season and the Mets hope that some tweaks in sequencing can improve his results. The results in spring training speak for themselves. Hopefully Canning is another David Stearns success story: not a sexy acquisition, but one that will help the Mets weather a 162-game season with inevitable pitching injuries.
A David Stearns success story is exactly what Canning turned out to be. Though he didn’t maintain quite the prolific strikeout rate of his small spring sample size, Canning did maintain his momentum overall to begin the season, putting up a 2.47 ERA through his first nine starts. He did that mostly on the back of that changeup, which hitters batted just .188 against in 2025, and via a 55.2% ground ball rate over those first nine starts. Metrics like SIERA, FIP, and xERA are less kind to Canning’s impressive start because of the amount of contact he gave up, but he gave the Mets exactly what they needed from him: the ability to weather the storm.
Canning’s early luck caught up with him a bit in the second half of May and into June, over which he put up a 5.50 ERA in 34 1/3 innings, seeing his walk rate spike. Canning never got the chance to right the ship. On June 26, he suffered a non-contact injury, crumpling to the ground after stepping off the mound. It didn’t look good at the time and eventually testing confirmed the worst: a ruptured Achilles tendon that would require surgery and cost him the rest of the season.
It was truly a shame for both the Mets and for Canning. Canning lost out on the chance to parlay what was shaping up to be a renaissance season into a possible multi-year deal. As of this writing, Canning is still a free agent, though he has drawn interest from multiple teams, including the Mets. However, given the injury, the chances that Canning’s next contract is richer than the one earned in 2025 are slim. Meanwhile, the Mets lost what turned out to be, on balance, an above average starting pitcher from their rotation. All told, Canning ended up with a 3.77 ERA and a 107 ERA+ in 76 1/3 innings across 16 starts. Given the amount the Mets signed Canning for and the expectations of him entering the season, even this injury-shortened campaign was absolutely a bargain. But when one looks at what happened to the Mets from June 26 onward, the “what if” question inevitably creeps in. The starting rotation was the chief area of the team that failed down the stretch. Because of injuries and ineffectiveness, the Mets were forced to rely upon their young arms to mixed success. One can’t help but wonder if Canning simply xeroxing his first half output in the second half would have been enough to eke out that one extra win the Mets needed to make the playoffs in 2025. In that alternate universe, the resurgence of Griffin Canning and the successful transition of Clay Holmes to the starting rotation are heralded as victories by David Stearns and the Mets’ pitching apparatus that inspire confidence for 2026.
C’est la vie. Instead, we live in a universe where the outcome of the Frankie Montas signing and uncertainty surrounding Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga leave some lingering apprehension, despite the morale boost that was the Freddy Peralta trade. However, Canning’s story—injury-shortened or not—is reason for optimism; it is likely he did enough in 2025 to be given a chance by someone to prove it was not a fluke, despite the warning signs of regression. But it is unlikely that team will be the Mets unless a trade that subtracts from the current group of big league starters is still in the works.
