UFC Vegas 112 is in the books, and now, winter has come.
Manel Kape ran over Brandon Royval, shaking up the flyweight title picture, and we’ll have plenty of time to think about it, as there are no UFC events for six weeks. So, let’s chat about all that, and some other stuff, too.
Manel Kape and the flyweight title picture
Did Manel Kape do enough to potentially steal a flyweight title shot from Tatsuro Taira, or is it currently up in the air as to who’s next for Joshua Van?
I don’t think he stole a title shot from Taira because Taira never
had a title shot to begin with. Taira was simply in the mix and now Kape is right there with him. That being said, I believe Kape did put himself at the front of the line at 125 pounds, but that only means so much. Right now, the flyweight title picture is as clear as mud.
Ostensibly, Alexandre Pantoja is the fighter who actually is first in line for the new champion, Joshua Van, not just because their fight had an unsatisfactory ending, but also because he’s earned that right. Pantoja is the second-greatest flyweight ever and was the longest-reigning active champion. That earns you first right of refusal for the next title shot.
But the question is, when will Pantoja be ready to fight? I’m not a physician, but I’m fairly certain that flamingo-ing your elbow isn’t all that good for you. It’s possible he sustained minimal long-term damage, but it’s also possible he tore a bunch of ligaments in there, which means he’ll be non-contact for a while. Either way, personally, I would prefer he take some time off to heal properly, because what we don’t want is a T.J. Dillashaw situation where he feels pressured to come back but can’t reasonably compete.
So, assuming all of that, the flyweight title picture then basically boils down to Taira vs. Kape, and I believe Kape has the edge right now. Aside from the fact that Brandon Royval was more highly ranked than Brandon Moreno was at the time of Kape and Taira’s respective victories, Taira also recently lost to Royval. MMAth is silly, but it does make things like this simple, and so Kape is the (second) front-runner.
But, if we’re being honest, the answer is probably “Whoever says yes for the timeline the UFC wants.” If there’s one thing the UFC 324 and UFC 325 main events should have made abundantly clear by now, it’s that the UFC is not about merit; it’s about keeping the machine moving along as smoothly as possible at all times. So, if I were Kape, I wouldn’t try to negotiate anything extra for a title fight, or else he’ll be back in the pile again soon.
Long Break
No UFC events for 6 weeks, it’s been so long since they’ve taken such a long break that I don’t even recall the last time it happened. It seems odd to me considering the schedule the UFC normally keeps, and the big shows they typically put on closer to the end of the year. What do you think the reasons are for the long break right now?
I think this one is pretty simple: it’s mostly timing, and a little bit the new TV rights deal.
Basically, every year, the UFC takes four weeks off from mid-December to mid-January. It’s been that way since 2020. But this time, the winter break coincides with the UFC’s shift over to Paramount. Now, that doesn’t necessarily mean they couldn’t just hold an event in mid-January, but look at the calendar, that would only be one week earlier.
Historically, the UFC would ease into a new year with a warm-up Fight Night card on that week, before diving into a PPV at the end of the month, but I’m guessing Paramount didn’t want to do that. Instead, they want to make a big splash with their first event, hence a PPV, and so we added one week to the break.
Building stars in MMA
Hi Jed,
I’d like to know what you think is more valuable in elevating a fighter’s profile on the come up:
- Firing out social media and mic work despite weak promo ability
- Taking on as many fights as possible regardless of win/loss level of risk
I’ve been banging this drum for many years at this point, but the answer is obvious: fighting. Fighting is how you become a star. Fighting is how you get noticed in this sport. Fight. All. The. Time.
Conor McGregor is the biggest star in the history of MMA, and his career arc isn’t really replicable. He was a perfect storm of everything. He was talented, charismatic, came with a built-in fan base, won spectacularly, and certainly got lucky as well. But the thing that tied it all up together was the frequency with which he competed. McGregor fought seven times in his first 32 months in the UFC. Every four and a half months, he was in there, demolishing someone. Had he taken a year off at a time *cough* Arnold Allen *cough* it would’ve taken him twice as long to blow up.
A look at recent history also confirms this. Khamzat Chimaev became an overnight sensation because he fought three times in six weeks. Baisangur Susurkaev was one of the breakout fighters of 2025 because he fought twice in four days. Waldo Cortes-Acosta might end up winning Breakout Fighter of the Year because he fought five times! It doesn’t matter that he lost one of them; every other month, WCA was on television, hitting somebody. That sticks with people.
And, aside from the frequency of things being its own reward, the more you fight, the more you have an opportunity to deliver that breakthrough performance. It’s the same with media; you post every day, because all it takes is one thing to blow up, and suddenly you’ve made it. But that’s true of life in general; the more you try, the luckier you get.
And the inverse is true as well. Just look at Shavkat Rakhmonov, who half the fan base has seemingly forgotten about entirely, because other people won fights at welterweight and he’s been injured. Francis Ngannou has tanked his MMA stock because he’s fought in a cage once in four years. This sport has the memory of a goldfish, so you’d better be fighting all the time.
As for promos, if you’re good at it, it can elevate you, but that is a rarity. Colby Covington is the example here. To be clear, he was actively bad at promos, but he was polarizing, which at least made him stand out in a sea of fighter uniforms and banal answers. But truly, promos are better at elevating a popular fighter than they are at turning a fighter popular, if that makes sense.
So, yeah, fight constantly. And if you can give the people something to attach to as well, that never hurts.
Fantasy Matchup
How good of a fight would Jose Aldo vs. Anthony Pettis in their primes have been, Jed ?
This would have been an elite-level display of MMA, but it probably wouldn’t have been that “good” to watch, because Aldo would’ve cooked Pettis.
This is why I hold champ-champ status in less esteem than many others in MMA, because plenty of fighters throughout history could easily have done it, but were never given the opportunity. Jose Aldo is one such fighter. Back when Pettis was lightweight champion, Aldo would’ve been close to a nightmare matchup for “Showtime.”
Aldo is the best defensive fighter in MMA history. The way you beat someone like that is not with single bursts of offense, but by spamming so much offense that it eventually gets through his layers of defense. Pettis was never a high-volume guy, but looked for single, spectacular shots. He would have landed, like, five strikes throughout the whole fight, and gotten jabbed to pieces.
Ranking stuff
Rank the top 5 UFC events in that took place in December since it’s inception.
(And just for kicks, what was the worst?)
(In the 90s, we only had Gracie/Severn at UFC 4, but I’m not counting tournaments).
First, you left off some events. A couple Decembers had double PPV action.
Second, here:
- UFC 269. Top to bottom, a really good card, with Charles Oliveira vs. Dustin Poirier in the main, and one of the biggest upsets of all time in the co-main event, Julianna Peña over Amanda Nunes.
- UFC 218. Max Holloway beating Jose Aldo in their main event rematch headlined, but Yancy Medeiros vs. Alex Oliveira was the No. 2 Fight of the Year in 2017, and Eddie Alvarez vs. Justin Gaethje was No. 3. Plus, KO of the year with Francis Ngannou nearly decapitating Alistair Overeem in the co-main event.
- UFC 232. Jon Jones vs. Alexander Gustafsson 2 in the main, with Nunes vs. Cris Cyborg in the co-main event. Also had five other future or former champions on the card.
- UFC 194. Arguably headlined by one of the five most important fights in MMA history, McGregor’s win over Aldo. Luke Rockhold beat the soul out of Chris Weidman in the co-main, and three other future/former champs were also on the card, which was solid from top to bottom in talent, though a lot of decisions.
- UFC 168. Chris Weidman broke Anderson Silva’s leg in the main event, an image that still haunts me. Ronda Rousey beat Miesha Tate in the co-main event, in one of the more important fights in UFC history. The rest of the card had a lot of fun finishes, though it lacked the name power.
As for the worst, give me UFC 124, Georges St-Pierre vs. Josh Koscheck 2. This was during the time period where the UFC was really comfortable putting one star at the top and filling the undercard with whatever they had lying around. Only two UFC champs on this card, including GSP (the other was Charles Oliveira losing to Jim Miller), and a whole lot of uninspiring decisions.
Thanks for reading, and thank you to everyone who sent in questions. Do you have any burning questions about things at least somewhat related to combat sports? Then you’re in luck, because you can send them to me. Every Sunday (sometimes I forget and it happens on Monday), I’ll put out a call for questions on The Feed. Doesn’t matter if they’re topical or insane; just drop your questions there, and I’ll answer the best ones. Thanks again, and see y’all next week.
