Entering the playoffs, the Yankees knew they’d have to win their share of tight, low-scoring games if they wanted to advance deep into the playoffs. You know, the type of games that became their trademark during the second half of the season, as the offense floundered without Aaron Judge but the team still surged in the standings thanks to a fistful of 3-2 and 2-1 victories.
That was the kind of the game the Yankees had to win last night. Instead, the Rays staff executed just a hair better, and New
York will turn to their ace in Game 2 hoping to stabilize in this series rather than take a commanding lead, having missed a massive opportunity to put Tampa on the backfoot.
It’s the kind of missed chance that will sting so much because of how well the Yankees’ pitching strategy for this game worked out. Gerrit Cole wasn’t at his sharpest, but he wasn’t bad either, managing to hold the Rays to just one run over five innings. Aaron Boone then did good work leveraging his bullpen (as he’s done for much of this season), tabbing Ryan Weathers for his postseason debut, and bringing in Paul Blackburn and Brent Headrick at opportune moments, getting three no-hit innings from the trio.
It wasn’t enough, in large part thanks to a superlative performance from Rays right-hander Drew Rasmussen. Though the Yankees’ bats showed poorly in this game and made a couple key mistakes (more on that later), the story of this game is Rasmussen. The right-hander carried a no-hitter into the eighth, ultimately shutting the Yankees out over eight innings while allowing one hit, two walks, and striking out ten.
Rasmussen adjusted adeptly facing the lefty-heavy Yankee lineup, ramping up the usage of his cutter and changeup. The cambio in particular devastated the Yankees, the Bombers swinging 18 times at the change and whiffing ten times. Rasmussen’s changeup is a power one, diving beneath hitters’ bats at 89-90 mph, and the Yankees had no chance when he located it well:
He also showed deft control of his heaters, painting the corner to generate a number of called strikes with his cutter and sinker:
The Yankees didn’t do enough to make Rasmussen uncomfortable, only occasionally working deep counts and finding trouble squaring up the ball when they did make contact. But ultimately, Rasmussen is a very good pitcher who turned in the game of his life when the lights were brightest. The Yankees needed someone to break through and make a play, on a night where stringing together a rally against the opposing pitcher was a tall task. Austin Wells tried to be that someone when he roped the line drive down the right-field line that broke up Rasmussen’s no-no, attempting to stretch a double into a triple with two outs in the eighth:
It was an inexplicable decision regardless of the result. Using some back-of-the-napkin win probability math, Wells advancing to third there would’ve raised the Yankees’ chances of winning by roughly one percentage point, while getting thrown out reduced their odds by something like seven or eight percent. To justify going for it, Wells needed to feel he had a nearly 90 percent chance of advancing, something he very clearly didn’t have as Victor Mesa Jr. gathered to throw from right.
This series is far from over after one game, but the Yankees had a real chance to put the Rays in a bind here. They limited the Rays to one run on five hits, a scenario they surely would’ve taken before the game had it been presented to them. Any sort of offense would have resulted in New York taking a 1-0 lead in Tampa Bay, with the presumptive AL Cy Young winner ready to take the ball and bury the Rays in Game 2. Instead, Cam Schlittler will need to shove just to keep his team from falling into a 2-0 ALDS hole for the second consecutive season.
Schlittler will be up for the job, and the Yankees may very well find themselves back in the series come Monday night. But this is a tough, solid Rays squad, one that will be to hard to crack. The Yankees could’ve given themselves a chance to break them, but Rasmussen had other plans.
On the site today, Kevin discusses the (Yankees) player of the game from Game 1, Gerrit Cole. Also, Madison recaps the rest of the action from a busy day of playoff baseball yesterday, and John spins through the week in Yankees social media, while Matt’s entry in our Yankees Birthday series highlights Frankie Crosetti.
Today’s Matchup:
Offday.
