What is the story about?
What do you assign as primary blame for the Horned Frogs’ collapse vs. ASU last Friday?
- Anthony: Just as Daniel Plainview abandons his boy, when the Horned Frogs need it most, this offense abandons its run game. TCU is unable to run these games out with solid leads and unable to sustain lengthy drives, so when the turnovers and penalties inevitably arrive, the momentum snowball builds up enough strength to barrel over the Frogs. In the 3rd Quarter, TCU ran just three times for exactly zero yards. In the decisive 4th Quarter, TCU ran just two true rushing attempts, paired with four sacks for a total of negative-23 rushing yards for the quarter. With a lead at halftime, the 2nd Half gameplan had the Horned Frogs log nine rush attempts for negative-23 rush yards; a truly hideous display. It’s not like the pass game was working so well either to cause the Frogs to lock away the ground game: in the 4th Quarter, TCU was just 3-7 passing for 26 yards, four sacks, and two turnovers. Perhaps this can be blamed on the injury to lead rusher Kevorian Barnes, but all of the other named co-starters in the backfield have been productive this season. Perhaps it’s due to an offensive line that had already mentally teleported to Tempe’s Mill Avenue, allowing run plays to get blown up in the backfield and surrendering an abundance of sacks and pressure on Josh Hoover. Or perhaps that’s just a coaching staff with no answers for what the Sun Devils cooked up down the stretch.
- Austin: It’s gotta be the offensive line. TCU couldn’t run the ball, and when the stakes were raised, couldn’t keep Josh Hoover upright as the Sun Devils tee’d off in the second half. The Horned Frogs mustered 10 rushing yards on 25 attempts—that’s abysmal. Of course, Hoover’s nine rushes for minus-38 yards should be accounted for, but it shouldn’t dissuade from the fact that TCU’s offensive line hasn’t run-blocked well in back-to-back seasons. Trent Battle and Jeremy Payne averaged merely 3.3 yards per carry. It’s not sustainable. Tackle play has been downright bad, which also isn’t sustainable for a pocket-passer. TCU must figure out a combination that works, and if not, the Frogs may have to resort to a TE chipping, or a running back helping pass protect on nearly every play, especially as the game winds down.
- Caleb: The inability to field a solid offensive line has been the difference between the 2022 CFP team and the team of the past 2 years. When NFLers stepped out like Andrew Coker, Brandon Coleman, and Steve Avila, there was no depth to replace them. Even for Fiesta Bowl team, Wes Harris, John Lanz, and Alan Ali weren’t NFL guys but they were serviceable Power 5 o-linemen. I don’t really see that in this group based on 247 Sports ratings over the past 4 years. The group was thrown together largely through the portal, showing that the staff is value shopping on the line. The ones that were HS recruits are the ones struggling the most, the offensive tackles. The NIL collective doesn’t seem to have a problem spending on the shiny toys like skill positions, but teams are built in the trenches. When you don’t build your team from the ground up, you lose games you shouldn’t. This game was essentially a rerun of last year’s UCF game, hopefully the Frogs don’t flounder for weeks afterward like they did last year.
- Drew: The offensive line is the clear answer for me. While Arizona State was able to rack up plenty of yards on the defense, the Frogs played very solid redzone defense and held the Sun Devils under 30 points despite having to deal with three turnovers from the offense. The offensive line on the other hand struggled to create holes in the running game and let up six sacks in pass protection. There were issues in communication and in execution as the Arizona State defensive front dominated the TCU offensive line. This game felt similar to multiple games in 2024 where TCU was unable to close out a win despite creating an early lead, in large part due to a failure to run the ball and poor offensive line play.
- Russ: For full disclosure — I had work Friday night so I was only able to watch highlights of the game and follow along on my phone. But from what I could tell, the offense struggled mightily in the second half and the three turnovers ultimately did the Horned Frogs in. Defensively, TCU gave up nearly 500 yards, but the Sun Devils missed two field goals, failed to convert an onside kick and had a fumble of its own.
With injuries piling up, a lack of depth at key positions is having a major impact for TCU. Which player can the Frogs least afford to miss time?
- Anthony: There is a strong argument for defensive tackle Ansel Din-Mbuh, the Washington State transfer has quietly made a major impact up front to start the season, logging 9 tackles, 3.5 TFL, and 1.5 sacks. Din-Mbuh left Friday’s game with an injury and the Sun Devils suddenly found a lot more offensive success. He’s listed out for Saturday’s game vs. Colorado and may be just the medicine needed for a struggling Colorado run game to get rolling. While the offense has taken the most impactful injuries so far this season, I think TCU’s defensive depth chart is hanging on by a thread, if any of the productive top-line starters miss significant time, we could see that side of the ball take a major step back.
- Austin: Somehow, running back feels like the answer. Coming into the season, TCU looked stocked with reliable options in the backfield. But once Kevorian Barnes went down, the run game collapsed—138 yards on 37 attempts against SMU, followed by just 10 yards on 25 carries versus Arizona State. The Horned Frogs need their bruiser back to take pressure off Josh Hoover.
- Caleb: Seeing as TCU is 0-1 in games that didn’t feature Eric McAllister, I’d say he’s the straw that stirs the drink. If Hoover doesn’t have McAllister to throw to on 3rd down, it’s a safe bet that the ball is going to DJ Rogers on some sort of intermediate option route. Just ask ASU, who stopped it about 5 times in a row. Exhibit B: Dwyer has a tough time creating space as the feature receiver, he has only shined when McAllister commands more attention from the defense.
- Drew: TCU needs Kevorian Barnes back for multiple reasons. TCU has struggled to run the ball in two straight games, in part because the Frogs have missed his downhill, physical running style. Feeding a physical running back like Barnes early in games can wear down a defense and slow down the opposing defensive front and TCU does not have another back who has shown the ability to do that consistently. Barnes is also very solid in pass protection and the pass protection unit has struggled in his absence.
- Russ: Eric McAlister’s injury could prove to be very troublesome if he’s forced to miss extended time. Coming off a 250-yard, three-touchdown effort against SMU, McAlister reminded everyone that he’s the No. 1 wide receiver on the TCU offense. While Jordan Dwyer and Joseph Manjack IV have delivered solid results, Dwyer struggled with drops against Arizona State. Other than true freshman Ed Small, I haven’t seen many other receivers step up outside of the top-3 veteran duo of McAlister, Dwyer and Manjack IV.
@frogsowar took some heat on Twitter for suggesting TCU would now have “a long hill to climb” to return to conference title contention following the loss. Should the Frogs still be a good bet to reach Arlington in December?
- Anthony: Hand up, that was my in-the-moment opinion, but I stand behind it. I see it like the phenomenon in like the NBA Playoffs where a team is on the road in Game 1 of a series and takes the favored team to overtime or has a big late lead and then falls just short, perhaps controversially and it’s like “now they have to essentially beat the Warriors 5 times to win this series.” Yes it’s feasible and yes there are positive takeaways, but you have dug yourself into an unfortunate hole that feels daunting. Arizona State is sure to be one of the teams competing atop the standings all season and you’ve fallen 1.5 games behind them. TCU does not play other top contenders Texas Tech & Utah, which sounds good in that perhaps you avoid that potential loss, but you also have no way to gain the upper hand on them. While the Big 12 is sure to deliver some chaos along the way, shaking up whatever prediction anyone may make today, but the Horned Frogs now have no room for error and will likely need help from the conference standings tiebreakers to earn a spot in the Big 12 Title Game.
- Austin: It really was a crushing defeat, no matter how strong an opponent Arizona State proved to be. As a Frog fan, I felt almost untouchable after the onslaught against North Carolina and the commanding win over the Mustangs. That’s why calling this setback a “long climb” doesn’t feel like an exaggeration. A victory over the Sun Devils could have fueled even more confidence, but instead it feels like TCU is back at square one, staring down a tough remaining schedule. I wouldn’t call the Horned Frogs a safe bet, but the path forward still holds plenty of opportunity.
- Caleb: I wouldn’t say they’re a good bet, but they’re not out of the conversation. ASU, Tech, and Iowa State have the inside track here with the games they’ve put on paper. The Big 12 is full of single-score spreads and close games where anyone can win, so I wouldn’t say a single loss to the defending champs is an elimination game. The battle is certainly uphill from here, however.
- Drew: There is still a path for the Frogs with a schedule that dodges Texas Tech and Utah and sees Iowa State have to travel to Fort Worth. That said, TCU cannot play like it did against Arizona State and expect to contend in the Big 12. Road trips to BYU and Kansas State still loom large and Cincinnati is looking like a potential contender after a win over Kansas last week. If the Frogs can get healthy quickly and fix some issues up front, TCU can reach Arlington but the schedule is by no means a cake walk.
- Russ: Starting 0-1 in the Big 12 isn’t ideal, but there’s still a path to Arlington. TCU doesn’t have to play Texas Tech or Utah, two of the better teams in the conference, so there will be added pressure to win over Iowa State, Baylor, Kansas State and BYU. The Cyclones just lost their top two corners to season-ending injuries, while the Wildcats have been all over the map to start this season. I’m not sold on BYU’s offense and Baylor has given up a lot of points on defense. If TCU takes care of business against all of the teams it should (Colorado being one of them), then there’s an avenue in which the Horned Frogs could make it.
This will be TCU’s first game against Coach Prime & the Buffs since the infamous upset to open the 2023 season. Was that the most embarrassing TCU game and does its fall out create extra motivation to avenge that performance?
- Anthony: While the point-spread was probably the worst and the negative national spotlight it shined on the Frogs was brutal, there were three games just in 2024 that were far worse. The collapse at home to a UCF team that would finish 4-8, the ugly beat down at home by a Houston team that would finish 4-8, and the shameful performance in Dallas that would allow SMU to go to the CFP as Sonny Dykes gets ejected. That said, everyone who follows or talks about college football watched that game in Deion Sanders’ FBS debut and came away believing TCU was a joke, especially it being the first game following the 65-7 National Championship loss. I would think that game would weigh heavy on the coaching staff and any players who were around for that loss, and the opportunity to get-right following last week’s collapse while delivering a loss to Coach Prime has to provide some motivation.
- Austin: I don’t think this ranks among TCU’s most embarrassing games, especially knowing the Horned Frogs were far from the same team that reached the National Championship. Their preseason ranking felt more like a reward for that run than a reflection of their current roster. After losing eight players to the NFL Draft in 2023 alone, TCU was bound to take a step back. Even then, they only lost by three points to a team that saw three players—including Heisman winner Travis Hunter—drafted. There’s still motivation to respond, but it didn’t carry the same edge heading into SMU this year, especially after the blowout in 2024.
- Caleb: While it was embarrassing to lose the opener against Colorado in a season that only held 3 more victories, losing to Houston last year was far more embarrassing. At that point, I had personally given up hope on Sonny Dykes and thought he could only win with a talent pool that he had inherited from Gary Patterson. Since then, Hoover has turned out fine as a QB and the team has won 9 of their last 11 so sometimes it helps to get pantsed.
- Drew: I think the collapse against UCF or the blow out loss to SMU or even the loss to a bad Houston team in 2024 are more embarrassing losses for the Frogs considering Colorado had multiple future NFL draft picks on that team. I do think there is extra motivation to avenge the loss, however, especially for Sonny Dykes who I’m sure would like to bury all memory of the 2023 loss to Colorado.
- Russ: TCU’s 66-42 loss at SMU in last year’s Iron Skillet was far more embarrassing than the lost to Deion and crew in 2023. I felt like that game was a genuine toss-up and TCU was forced to deal with the unknown of what the Buffaloes would look like under Sanders, similar to North Carolina and Bill Belichick. I’d expect Sonny Dykes to have his team much more prepared this time around, especially at home.
Offensive MVP vs. Colorado:
- Anthony: Jeremy Payne. Even if Barnes returns from his injury, it likely won’t be with a full workload and the stable of co-starters will need to get the job done as well. This is a battle between the Big 12’s worst rushing offense (133 yards per game) and the league’s second-worst run defense (197.2 yards allowed per game). After rightfully taking major criticism for the performance at Arizona State, the TCU running game bounces back with a vengeance vs. Colorado. It simply has to, because if the Frogs aren’t able to get rolling on the ground in this one it may not again this season.
- Austin: Jordan Dwyer. I considered Ryan Hughes or Ben Taylor-Whitfield after the offensive line’s disastrous showing against Arizona State, but I wouldn’t call either an MVP candidate. Dwyer, on the other hand, needs to step up after back-to-back games with just three receptions. The Idaho transfer looked like TCU’s top offensive playmaker through the first two weeks, before Eric McAlister’s breakout performance against SMU. If McAlister can’t go or is still limited, Dwyer has to be the difference-maker.
- Caleb: Kevorian Barnes. TCU needs to re-establish their running identity and the transfer back appears to be all set for a return this week. Don’t look now but Colorado gives up 197 rush yards a game. Dr. Kevorian should put the Buffaloes to sleep.
- Drew: Josh Hoover. Hoover played his worst game against Arizona State and I think he has a big bounce back game against a Colorado defense that has looked vulnerable at times this season. I think he gets better pass protection, limits the turnovers, and has no trouble moving the ball on Saturday.
- Russ: Jordan Dwyer. Eric McAlister is listed as questionable, but my gut says he and Kevorian Barnes don’t play on Saturday. Dwyer had a monster game against North Carolina, but struggled mightily with drops against Arizona State, one of which led to an interception in the end zone. Dwyer needs to get back on track and I think he could be in for a big game against the Colorado secondary.
Defensive MVP vs. Colorado:
- Anthony: Tristan Johnson is about to fully introduce himself to the national audience. The redshirt freshman defensive lineman stacked up three tackles last week and will be a fulltime contributor with Ansel Din-Mbuh sidelined with injury this weekend. He’s been active in pass rush while also stuffing the run at the line of scrimmage. Look for the number 35 jersey to be creating havoc in the backfield and flushing Colorado QB Kaidon Salter out of the pocket all night.
- Austin: This matchup has Jamel Johnson written all over it. TCU’s leading tackler will play a key role in containing Kaidon Salter and Colorado’s improved run game. Though he lines up at safety, Johnson has sharpened his run defense and become one of the Horned Frogs’ most reliable tacklers.
- Caleb: Anytime TCU faces a pass-heavy team, Jamel Johnson tends to cleanup that tackle stat column. I think he replicates his SMU performance against a similar passing attack, maybe not forcing two turnovers but he’ll still have a significant impact on their ability to produce yards after the catch.
- Drew: Kaleb Elarms-Orr. Elarms-Orr was arguably TCU’s best player on either side of the football against Arizona State and has been excellent through four games in 2025. TCU has struggled to create pressure when rushing four and Colorado has one of the better offensive tackles in the nation in Jordan Seaton. I expect Andy Avalos to dial up plenty of blitzes on Saturday to get Kaidon Salter out of rhythm and Elarms-Orr has been TCU’s best blitzer this season.
- Russ: Kaleb Elarms-Orr. TCU could be without defensive lineman Ansel Din-Mbuh on Saturday, putting more pressure on the players in the box to contain the run and pressure Kaidon Salter. Elarms-Orr has been TCU’s best defensive player this season, already notching three sacks over the team’s first four games as a linebacker. He’s a leading tackler too and I think he turns in another monster game on Saturday.
Final Score:
- Anthony: TCU 35, Colorado 24
- Austin: TCU 41, Colorado 20
- Caleb: TCU 44, Colorado 21
- Drew: TCU 28, Colorado 17
- Russ: TCU 31, Colorado 20
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