After a massive win over San Diego State and a second blowout against No. 21 Auburn, the Michigan Wolverines find themselves in the Championship Game of the Players Era Festival. Dusty May claimed the Fort
Myers Tip-Off crown last November, but three wins over three days against this competition would be the Wolverines’ best MTE performance since the 2019 Battle 4 Atlantis run.
That event ended with an emphatic win over…the Gonzaga Bulldogs, who were ranked No. 8 at the time. Wednesday’s rematch features another strong Gonzaga squad that is coming off victories against No. 8 Alabama on Monday and Maryland on Tuesday night. No matter what, this has been a great week for — now 4th on Kenpom — Michigan, but a championship trophy and all those extra NIL dollars would sure feel great.
No. 7 Michigan (6-0) vs. No. 12 Gonzaga (7-0)
Date & Time: Wednesday, Nov. 26, 9:30 p.m. ET
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, NV
TV/Streaming: TNT
That title in Atlantis was a bit of a false dawn for the Juwan Howard era, but it still was one to remember. Three straight wins over Tyrese Haliburton’s Iowa State, No. 6 UNC, then the Zags on Black Friday ushered in the new coaching regime. Just about everything was clicking for Michigan that day, including a 12-for-23 effort from three, five of those from Franz Wagner, and another 19 points and 15 rebounds contributed by Jon Teske over Filip Petrusev, Corey Kispert, Drew Timme, and Killian Tillie.
Two Stats to Watch
Gonzaga Kenpom Ranking: 1st
Not to bury the lede here: Gonzaga is very, very good. Kenpom has both the offense and defense 4th nationally, which happens after taking down five High Major opponents already this season. There are not really any weaknesses to press into; the Zags do not take many threes nor draw many free throws, but that has not limited the offense at all. Both teams will play quickly and will lean on their powerful frontcourts.
That makes the paint the area to watch. Gonzaga is almost 300th in three-point attempt rate, meaning most of its shooting happens inside the arc. At 63.0% two-point shooting, this team is much scarier than anyone Michigan has faced previously, and do not expect Graham Ike (17.0 PPG) and Braden Huff (16.0) to back down against Aday Mara and Morez Johnson near the basket.
On the other end of the floor, the Wolverines have been just as efficient scoring themselves, though the Zags’ interior defense is equally stringy. Alabama did have some success, hitting 57.8% of its twos on Monday thanks to 17-for-26 shooting at the rim, though much of that production came from Labaron Philon. Michigan will likewise need its guards to attack the paint as well, using the bigs’ gravity to clear the way (and clean up the glass).
Michigan 3-Point Shooting: 36.8% (Players Era)
Given how both sides have been so good inside the arc, one has to wonder if the three ball is where the game is won. Neither has been exceptional this season (Gonzaga 127th, Michigan 137th) but both have been slightly better at this event. The Wolverines have taken 13 more threes across their two games, though, and have gotten contributions from basically everyone outside Mara and Jonhson.
Heading into Vegas, this area had been either lights out (Oakland) or dreadful (Wake, TCU, MTSU), so it is anyone’s guess how Wednesday will resolve. I do think that the Zags’ top-20 three-point defense is just as much of a function of the mediocre outside shooting teams they have faced as it is their own efforts, but maybe it could be argued Michigan has trended in that camp itself anyway.
I am not suggesting that the Wolverines must hit 50% of their threes to win this game. However, I do expect them to take a healthy number of them (exactly half of their shots the last two days have come from deep), meaning they must at least complete around their average to stay in the game. But given how good Gonzaga’s offense is and how difficult it might be to score down low, a special night from three-point land would bring home the cash.
