When you fall behind 34-10 at home to a previously 1-4 team, you can’t expect the reviews to be good, even when you make a desperate comeback in the final quarter to almost erase the deficit you created by stinking up the joint in the middle two quarters. The Pro Football Focus grades reflect both the rotten middle and the much better beginning and ending of this frustrating game. Let’s see who they felt the responsible parties were, both good and bad.
PFF grades: Offense
To be blunt, Sunday we got mostly Bad Jameis
and not enough of Good Jameis, as is reflected in his second lowest grade among Giants offensive players, by far his worst of the season. He did some good things early in the game, but one TD and two INTs is a poor game in anyone’s eyes. It wasn’t the pass rush – Winston was pressured on only six of his 30 dropbacks. His touchdown pass came on a play he was pressured, and his interceptions came on plays he was kept clean.
How about J.J. McCarthy? Surely his fantastic 243-yard fourth quarter, including a TD and almost another one to get the Giants to overtime, qualify as an outstanding performance? Well, not quite. McCarthy was only 11 of 21, barely above 50%, and in addition to his one TD he also had an interception. PFF grades relative to what is expected of a player. Completing passes is expected of a quarterback. Interceptions are the opposite of what is expected. So, even though his 243 yards and TD count for something, the turnover counts a lot in the opposite direction and the missed throws bring his score down as well. The result: a passing grade in the “Average” range, although his overall offense grade ranked very good because of his 28 yard run.
Malik Nabers was the highest-graded Giant on offense. His grade was just short of the “Elite” 80s, though. On the one hand, he got open a lot and caught many throws. On the other hand, all his catches were on short to intermediate throws and his 52 YAC was less than one-third of his total receiving yards. Isaiah Likely was the second highest-graded Giant on offense. He’s not spectacular, but he catches a bunch of balls every week, some of them TDs. Likely leads all NFL TEs in receiving yards (383) and TDs (5). He has graded near or in the 70s or higher in every game he has played as a Giant except for the rainy, windy Tennessee game, giving him a season receiving grade of 81.1. What a great free agent signing – his $13.3M AAV contract looks like much better value than it did to me when he was signed.
The third-highest graded Giant on offense was Charlie Jones. What? The guy whose fumble turned the game around for New Orleans? Yes, but the grade you see above is his offense grade – he caught two balls in three targets, one of them for 49 yards and one a contested catch. Jones got a very bad 41.7 special teams grade for his kickoff fumble.
Other than that, most of the offensive grades were in the 50s-60s average to slightly below average range, as befits an offense that was MIA for the middle half of the game. You will note that only one Giants running back, Tyrone Tracy, even managed to grade “Average.” Cam Skattebo got a 58.9 participation trophy because he did get on the field to block for a few plays.
We need to talk about the offensive line. Andrew Thomas continues to play injured but gallantly, managing an above average grade on 52 of the 77 offensive snaps to lead all Giants’ offensive linemen. Thomas gave up just one hurry, but he did have a penalty. J.C. Davis saw his first action, replacing Thomas for 25 snaps, compiling a very good grade as well, with no pressures surrendered.
The rest of the OL was less successful. Marcus Mbow, replacing the injured Jermaine Eluemunor, and Jon Runyan graded slightly below average. Bryan Hudson, though, followed up his successful debut as starting center with a poor John Michael Schmitz-like performance. Sisi Mauigoa, however, had his third consecutive poor game, especially in pass blocking. The defining feature of the offensive line as a whole, though, is that every single lineman except Andrew Thomas was below average in run blocking (Davis only marginally so). The Giants running backs aren’t playing well, but they’re not getting help from their blockers.
PFF grades: Defense
You wouldn’t think it for a team that allowed its opponent to jump out to a 34-10 lead, but a number of Giants played well on defense against the Saints. The clear leader was D.J. Reader with a spectacular 89.2 overall defense grade, his third time above 80.0 in his six games and the fifth time in five games that he has graded at least very good. Although he missed one tackle, he made 7 tackles, all of them “stops” (unsuccessful runs for the offense – you know, like the ones the Giants’ running backs make). Shelby Harris got an average grade for his two tackles and two assists. Darius Alexander was slightly below average and Bobby Jamison-Travis well below average in his first NFL action.
Tyler Nubin’s days as a starter, or at least a major part of the rotation, may be numbered. Ar’Darius Washington graded an elite 81.4 and Jason Pinnock a very good 78.1 at safety (despite giving up a 31-yard TD) yesterday. Jevon Holland was barely average.
The other very good grades went to the Giants primary edge rushers. No one sacked Tyler Shough, but Abdul Carter (73.6) had a hit and three hurries, while Kayvon Thibodeaux (73.5) had a hit and two hurries. Jihad Ward and Trace Ford graded below average. More on Thibodeaux later.
At linebacker, Arvell Reese and Tremaine Edmunds had mixed results. Reese had four tackles (all of them stops) and two assists but missed two tackles. Edmunds had six tackles (two stops) and three assists but also missed a tackle. Both played every snap.
Finally, the cornerback room did not have its best day, as befits a defense that gave up 34 points in a little more than half the game. Not a single one even graded average, although Deonte Banks (56.8) came close. Dru Phillips (49.5) and Nic Jones (44.7) played poorly, each surrendering a TD. With Paulson Adebo and Colton Hood out, and now Greg Newsome injured as well, the Giants’ cornerback room is in dire straits, getting money for nothing.
Advanced stats
Aaron Schatz’s (formerly of Football Outsiders, now FTN Fantasy) defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) metric is considered one of the best overall indicators of team quality, taking into account not just how efficiently your team is playing but how good the guys on the other side of the ball you’re playing against are. The news isn’t exactly great for the Giants:
They rank 30th in offense, 22nd in defense, and 10th in special teams. Not surprisingly, Schatz’s DAVE metric, which combines DVOA with his pre-season projection for each team with decreasing weight for the latter as the season progresses and more in-season evidence is gathered, still sees the Giants as the least likely NFC East team to make the playoffs:
The good news is that maybe the Giants’ offensive coaches are geniuses anyway, at least compared to one supposed quarterback guru:
OK, just kidding, Kevin O’Connell is a good coach. He does have his team at 5-0, even though Brian Flores deserves a lot of the credit.
Getting serious, McCarthy’s play, despite his INT, was tremendous by objective measures, as good as Winston’s was bad:
Unfortunately, the only QB better than J.J. yesterday was the one the Giants face next Sunday, C.J. Stroud. To understand just how unusual yesterday’s fourth quarter was, look at this:
More bad news about Jameis:
Winston is facing a decent amount of pressure and making a higher than average number of turnover-worthy plays. That said, he’s in company with Drake Maye, Josh Allen, and a few other successful quarterbacks.
Perhaps one reason McCarthy was successful was that, relative to other QBs, he throws fast, giving defenders less time to close on a receiver:
That stat could be biased, since it includes short throws, which are usually thrown more softly, and when McCarthy entered the game short throws were mostly out of the playbook. The Saints were in prevent defense much of the time and did not have some of their starters in by the time he entered the game. On the other hand it’s good news, because explosive plays have been sadly lacking with this offensive coaching staff:
For the record, McCarthy’s aDOT of 15.6 yards on 21 passes yesterday makes him the NFL leader; the only starting QB anywhere near that is Lamar Jackson at 10.8. Jameis is at 9.1, Jaxson Dart 8.8. This will be something to watch out for if McCarthy takes over as starter – there was some hesitation about him among draft analysts coming out of college because his reputation is that he only throws fastballs and has not learned how to layer softer passes over defenders to drop the ball into narrow windows and make it easier for his receivers to catch the ball.
And another one, also to be taken with a grain of salt for the same reason:
The good news: McCarthy was the fourth-ranked QB in QBR yesterday, grading excellent not only in EPA/play, but also in completion % over expected (CPOE), success rate (SR), average depth of target (aDOT), and YAC%. The bad news is that the quarterback just above him was Tyler Shough, a testament to the Giants’ poor defense while the Saints were taking over the game.
Some stats are only available through Week 5, but they are still worth looking at. Continuing the Isaiah Likely love from earlier: Likely this season ranks 14th in the NFL in first downs per route run, and third among tight ends, trailing only Brock Bowers and T.J. Hockenson:
More Likely stanning: He’s in good company on contested target rate and catches made on such targets. Nabers sees many fewer contested targets but is catching them at a similar rate:
Tha bad news? Nico Collins (90% contested catch rate), up next week.
Finally, one defense tidbit for you to chew on. The most maligned member of the Giants’ defense is Kayvon Thibodeaux. It comes with the territory when you’re a No. 5 pick at the edge defender position and you don’t become a great pass rusher. Thibodeaux did have a good game rushing the passer Sunday, though he didn’t get a sack. But there’s more to the position than that, especially on the Giants where good run defenders are in short supply. Consider this metric:
As you can see, Abdul Carter has been one of the league’s best edge rushers this season, while Thibodeaux has been among the lowest in impact. I get it, Job 1 for edge defenders is to disrupt the quarterback. Thibodeaux, however, is among the NFL’s best (top 10 by this metric) at impacting the opponent’s running game, while Carter ranks low in this category.
The bad news? Will Anderson, up next week as the Giants visit Houston, is almost off the charts in both categories.
