A short history of the Cowboys 12th and 20th picks in draft-day trades

As we ramp up our annual draft preparations, two terms will continually make the rounds: ‘blue chip prospects’ and ‘first-round grades’. Blue chip prospects are truly elite talents that are projected to have an immediate impact at the NFL level and are likely to become some of the best players at their position. Depending on your exact definition of the term – and the talent available in a given draft – there are roughly between five and nine of these prospects every year, and usually all of them

get picked within the top 10 picks of the draft.

With the Cowboys owning the 12th overall pick in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft, and a possible paucity of blue-chip prospects in this year’s draft class, the Cowboys could well miss out on a blue-chip prospect. And even the list of first-round graded players may be shorter this year than in years past.

Steve Palazzolo of PFF.com argues there may be as little as eight players with a first-round grade in this draft.

ESPN’s Matt Miller also suggests a low number of true “first-round talents,” and pegs 11 players as such.

Every team builds its draft board a little differently, but most teams assign grades based on player’s projected round in the draft. We know that the Cowboys usually assign close to 20 first-round grades per year, a number that will vary with the specific talent level of each draft class. We know from the Cowboys four leaked draft boards (2010, 2013, 2016, 2022) and other information that has made its way out of Valley Ranch over time, that players with first-round grades occasionally fall out of the first round.

• In 2003, the Cowboys had a first-round grade on Jason Witten but took him in the third.
• In 2009, at least two players with a first-round grade fell out of the first round: Max Unger (49) and LeSean McCoy (53).
• In 2010, the Cowboys’ draft board had 23 players with first-round grades, two of whom fell beyond the 34th pick: Sean Lee (55) and NaVorro Bowman (91).
• In 2013, the Cowboys had 18 players with first-round grades and none fell to the second round, with Cordarrelle Patterson (29th) coming closest.
• In 2016, the Cowboys gave 16 players a first-round grade. Two of those players lasted into the second round: Jaylon Smith (34) and Myles Jack (36)
• In 2017, Stephen Jones said the Cowboys had 18 first-round grades, and that one player from that list was left after Day 1, but I don’t think that player was ever identified.
• In 2022, the Cowboys only had 14 players with a first-round grade, and Lewis Cine was the last one drafted with the 32nd overall pick

With their No. 12 overall pick, the Cowboys may be right on the cusp the last few first-round graded players, and could very well find themselves in a situation where they receive some interesting trade proposals from teams eager to move up in the draft for one of those players. Similarly, if some of the first-rounders fall, teams might be looking at moving up to the 20th overall pick to catch the last of the first-round prospects.

The Cowboys have been involved in draft day trades in 32 of their 37 drafts under Jerry Jones. You may not like it, but the Cowboys are going to move around in the draft, that’s almost a given. The only years in which the Cowboys managed to keep their feet still on draft weekend were 2000, 2011, 2016, 2018, and 2022. In fairness to the Cowboys though, most of the trade activity has been concentrated in the later rounds of the draft.

To get a better feel for the value of the Cowboys’ two first-round picks, we’ll now look at the historical precedent for trade-downs involving those two picks.

The Trade Value Chart, sometimes referred to as the Jimmy Johnson draft chart, is the tool of choice for all draftniks contemplating trades, and teams are reported to use very similar versions of this chart. The chart assigns a point value to each draft pick, making it easier to compare the relative value of draft picks in different rounds. Using the logic of the value chart, the 12th pick is worth 1,200 points, the 20th is worth 850. In case of a trade, the Cowboys should – in principle – look to get an equivalent value from another team in return for the pick.

But the reality of draft-day trades is that teams don’t always get an equivalent value for their picks. There are many considerations influencing the value of a pick, from supply and demand, draft strategy, different trade value charts, available talent, competitive considerations, and many more.

Here are six trade-downs involving the 12th overall pick

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Season	Trade	Trading Down		Trading Up		Net Value for team trading down
		Team	Value	Team	Value
1994	12 = 13 + 143	Saints	1,200	Jets	1,185	-15
2000	12 = 16 + 48	49ers	1,200	Jets	1,420	220
2006	12 = 13 + 181	Browns	1,200	Ravens	1,170	-30
2012	12 = 15 + 114 + 172	Seahawks	1,200	Eagles	1,140	-60
2017	12 = 27 + 91 + next 1st*	Bills	1,200	Chiefs	1,236	36
2022	12 + 46 = 32 +34 + 66	Vikings	1,640	Lions	1,410	-230

*A pick in the following year’s draft is generally valued one round lower. In this case, I’ve valued it with 420 points, the value of the 16th pick in the second round.

Based on the small sample size of just six drafts, it looks like the 12th pick isn’t used to trade down a whole lot. The first four trades were just a short drop of between one and four spots, similar to what the Cowboys did with the Micah Parsons pick when they moved from 10th to 12th. The two most recent trade downs saw teams moving to the bottom of the first/top of the second round, which feels like too much of a drop for the Cowboys this year, especially with the looming possibility of a limited talent pool.

There’s been even less trade-down activity with the 20th pick over time, with just four trade-downs executed since 1990.

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Season	Trade	Trading Down		Trading Up		Net Value for team trading down
		Team	Value	Team	Value
1993	20 = 26 + 81	49ers	850	Saints	885	35
1999	20 = 22 + 140	Seahawks	850	Cowboys	816	-34
2002	20 + 156 = 28 + 60	Seahawks	880	Packers	960	80
2014	20 = 27 + 91	Cardinals	850	Saints	816	-34

It’s just four trades, but all four have in common that the team trading down did not move out of the first round. And that echoes a point made by Jerry Jones after the Cowboys traded down from 18th to 31st in 2013 and selected Travis Frederick.

“We wanted to get [Frederick] in the first round because we wanted five years on him. If you get out of that first round, you don’t get it,” Jones said, referring to the fact that second-round picks only get four-year contracts.

If the Cowboys do trade down, that’ll likely still be a consideration this year, so don’t look for them to move out of the first round altogether.

Also note that most of the trades shown here follow a simple logic where the team trading down picks up only one extra pick in return. You offer one and get two back, or you offer two and get three back. Only twice did the team trading down get three picks for their one pick. Keep that in mind the next time you see a mock draft from one of the many mock draft simulators where folks will trade down for umpteen extra draft picks – that’s simply not realistic.

At the end of the day, every draft class is different, and a multitude of factors influence the value of a given pick. The Cowboys don’t even have all of their future coaches on board yet, and with almost three months to go until the draft, we have no idea whether the Cowboys have already set their sights on a few football players they believe will make a difference to this team. But we know that they are not averse to draft-day deals, so they could well move around during the draft.

But we also know that there are bound to be some pretty good players available if they stay put, and if the Cowboys let the draft come to them, stay true to their board and don’t reach for need, good things have happened in the past and could happen again.

Over to you: trade down with both picks, trade down with one pick, or stay put?