1984 was the first season the NBA implemented the 16-team playoff system, divided by the Eastern and Western Conferences. Since 1984, there have only been six 8-seeds to upset a 1-seed in the playoffs.
The first team to ever do it was the 1994 Denver Nuggets, who defeated the Seattle SuperSonics 3–2 after coming back from down 2-0. The next team to do it was the 1999 New York Knicks in a lockout-shortened season against the Miami Heat in a 3-2 series win. That Knicks team went on to make the NBA Finals.
Then in 2007, the ‘We Believe Warriors’ defeated the Dallas Mavericks and MVP winner Dirk Nowitzki 4-2. A few years later, the Memphis Grizzlies upset the Spurs 4-2 in 2011, and the Philadelphia 76ers defeated the 1-seed Chicago Bulls 4-2, who lost their MVP, Derrick Rose, in game one of that series. And the last team to do it? The 2023 Miami Heat, who defeated the Milwaukee Bucks 4-1 with Giannis Antetokounmpo in and out of the lineup that series. That Heat team also made the NBA Finals.
So what’s been the magic recipe historically?
For the 76ers and Bulls, it was injury luck. The Grizzlies and Warriors played a style of basketball that their counterparts could not match up against. The Grizzlies completely out-physicaled the Spurs, and the Warriors’ small-ball exposed a major flaw in the Mavericks’ unathletic roster. The Knicks and Nuggets got to play a five-game series, and both had exceptional defenses that stifled the Heat and Supersonics.
Historically, 8-seeds are 6-of-84 in opportunities against 1-seeds. So that gives the Suns a 7.1% chance to beat the Thunder, which is right on the money with how oddsmakers view this series. The Suns are right around +1300 to win the series. By no means is this article saying that the Suns will win the series, but rather the historical context of what kind of company they can be in if they do, and just how much of a shock it would be if they did. Plus, if you want to look on the bright side, if the Suns do beat the Thunder, they have a 33% chance at making the Finals!
So what has to go right for Phoenix to earn a series win over Oklahoma City?
Injury luck, obviously. In two weeks from now, if Phoenix has done the impossible and is moving on to the second round, it will more than likely be due to Oklahoma City having poor injury luck. Phoenix also needs the inverse; Grayson Allen and Mark Williams must play in order for them to win. There’s not a whole lot more to break down than that, and this Oklahoma City team is so talented it might take more than one injury for Phoenix to have a chance.
Now lets go to the basketball scenarios, which are way more fun to write about. 3-point shooting and taking care of the ball are the two keys for the Suns to have a shot against the Thunder. The Thunder are elite defensively with an unending roster of elite defenders perfectly suited to guarding Devin Booker, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, and the rest of the Suns roster. The Suns have to limit their turnovers while the Thunder turn it over like hotcakes. The Suns also need to take and make more threes than the Thunder. Winning the possession battle and 3-point battle has been the Suns’ recipe for success all season, and they will need to do it four times in four wins if they want to get a series win over the Thunder. The Suns have to shoot as many threes as possible, hope that they get a high number of makes, and if not, rebound those long misses and take some more triples.
The other ingredient to a historic series upset is generational performances or clutch play-making from the superstar player or players. Jimmy Butler reached extraordinary levels in the Heat’s recent 4-1 series win against the Bucks by making incredible shots in improbable comebacks. Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol dominated the Spurs’ frontline inside in the Grizzlies series win over the Spurs, and Dikembe Mutombo blocked the Supersonics in the final seconds, capped off by his iconic celebration.
The Suns will need elite shotmaking from Booker, Green, and Brooks, plus plenty of defensive heroism from everyone on the roster. Slowing down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be the Suns’ top priority, and he is the game’s best closer. It will be a challenge to match him bucket for bucket in the final minutes of games, but it is something the Suns will have to do.
So how does this team get it done?
The Suns have to win in six games or fewer, even if there are injuries. Playing the Thunder in Oklahoma City in a game seven is a daunting task. If the Suns win this series, it is because they won one of the first two games on the road, then hold the Thunder at bay to win in six games. Right now, just winning one game in the series would feel like an accomplishment for the Suns. Even the most optimistic Suns fans cannot consciously believe that this team will win this series. But as long as the 15 players in the locker room and the coaching staff believe they have a chance to win, I will be watching every minute.
If the Suns are going to win this series, here is the path it takes to get there:
Game 1 – Suns win in the final seconds of a close game.
Game 2 – Suns lose, and honestly, the more the Thunder lay it on, the better.
Game 3 – Suns get ridiculously hot from behind the line and win a game no one saw coming
Game 4 – Suns mount a furious fourth-quarter comeback and steal a win in an ugly rock fight game that ends in the high 80’s
Suns fall short, and Gilgeous-Alexander has his 40-point explosion
Game 5 – Suns fall short and Gilgeous-Alexander has his 40-point explosion
Game 6 – Suns win a game where Booker, Green, and Brooks score 80+ points, and a Suns role player hits a game-winning 3-point shot
The science behind this scenario is that every single team since the Warriors in 2007 has won game 1 of the series (except Philadelphia because of the Rose injury), and in the six series combined, the 8-seeds are a combined 14-1 at home. To upset a 1-seed, the path is clear: win the first game, and then win at home.
The Suns do have a few things going their way
They have nothing to lose, and the Thunder have all the pressure on them to win. The Suns are -1 in point differential this season against the Thunder with Booker in the lineup and are 1-1 in those games. The Suns are 2-3 against the Thunder in five games, which is as familiar as you can get with one team in the regular season. Even with all those reasons to be positive, the Suns have 7% chance to win this series, but with every run the Suns make, every loose ball they collect, every offensive rebound they grab, that number can grow and grow until it becomes a series.
Someone has to become the lucky number seven team to upset a 1-seed, so why not this Phoenix Suns team?
