The Buffalo Bills have taken their show on the road out west, already winning a thriller against the Los Angeles Rams in primetime last Monday ahead of Week 6 at the Las Vegas Raiders. After sleepwalking through a first half in SoFi Stadium where quarterback Josh Allen and the Bills’ could do nothing to move the football, the offense came alive late in action to break a winless overtime curse that spanned seven previous attempts.
The catalyst for that surge was of course Allen himself, and he took
over the game like few others can do against an NFL defense. Given Buffalo’s challenges on defense and its inability to stop almost any passing attack, Allen’s had to elevate his game to another level in 2026.
That means there’s very little from Allen’s game that should come as a surprise. The man knows how to wear a cape and he’s done so with aplomb since taking over the reigns as QB1 for the Bills. That’s especially true early this season, partially out of necessity due to a defense unable to stop most opponents.
With that in mind, how does one lay claim to a bold prediction about Josh Allen, if it’s not one that speaks to a lack of production? Well, I might have one idea to offer. Let’s dive in, starting with a bold take on Allen, well… at least leading off with a spicy take.
Spoiler alert: There’ll be no bold claims made below of Buffalo’s defense. Without any intent to take away from all that outside linebacker Greg Rousseau has accomplished, it’s pretty obvious that we need to see it before believing most things true of the defense.
Josh Allen stops fighting mechanics
… and allows Josh Allen to be Josh Allen.
Discussing his play after Monday Night Football, Allen’s self-reflection offered a glimpse at what might have been holding him back:
“Early on, just didn’t feel like I was in a rhythm — wasn’t taking some of the underneath stuff. You know, fighting, mechanically, some stuff right now that I’m working on. But I felt like in that second half I got into a rhythm.”
Allen is already discussed as among the greatest quarterback to play professional football, yet his statement about “fighting, mechanically, some stuff” is revealing. It’s also a perhaps a teaching moment for outsiders, as one that offers a pretty good alibi for his play in the first half against the Rams. It’s evident that second half in Los Angeles featured a more lock-in version of Allen, someone who was playing more instinctual football that allowed him to operate in better rhythm unsaddled by any critical focus on mechanics.
Allen would later refute the idea that it’s unusual for him to be battling mechanics in-season, stating that it’s likely something “every quarterback fights throughout the year — it could be as simple as one thing.” In recent weeks, Allen’s decision making has come under a bit of fire thanks to a pair of ill-advised arm punts. One doomed a shot at winning, while another ended hope of putting up points before halftime. Were those decisions borne out of being hyper-focused on mechanics, or the result of throwing caution to the wind, mechanical flaws be damned?
It’s possible both things are true, but many people will tell you that the most dangerous version of Allen is the one where he’s in a zone, playing instinctual football. Almost no one can touch him, figuratively and literally. Allen fueled almost exclusively by instincts may carry a turnover or two, but there’s a far better chance he’s scoring four or more touchdowns in such a state.
I believe this is the version of Allen we see in Week 6. He may very well spend quite a bit of time on mechanics during the lead up in-week, but it’s a practice that should be put to bed at kickoff. This isn’t a situation akin to Tim Tebow’s, where he had major fundamental flaws as a passer. The amazing thing about Allen is his ability to make incredible things happen out of thin air, where other quarterbacks often fail due to mechanical breakdowns or otherwise.
Allen has made incredible strides as a quarterback, thanks to the work he puts in to improve. We’ve seen what efficiency brings to his game, especially when there’s a talent void at wide receiver. His feeling the need to focus acutely on mechanics may be limiting Allen’s play.
Instead, refusing to fight mechanics should allow Allen to play more free. It likely keeps Allen out of a headspace that binds him up while also playing voodoo with his internal clock. Allen himself will tell you the only thing that matters is getting a win. His play late against the Rams is all the evidence you need to understand that a fire-breathing unicorn is at its best when unbridled.
Sunday feels like a “get right with himself” game for Allen.
Look for Allen to play with less restraint early in Las Vegas, but don’t go in expecting him to detrimentally throw caution to the wind. In two games against the Raiders, Allen has played well. In two wins, Allen’s completed 55-of-71 passes for 562 yards with five touchdown passes and no interceptions. Where he hasn’t made as much impact is as a rusher, gaining just six yards on six carries.
The oddsmakers at FanDuel Sportsbook aren’t bothered by that stat, currently listing Allen with the best odds (-175) of scoring a rushing touchdown at any point in the game. He’s also the current co-leader with running back James Cook III (+350) as odds-on-favorites to score two-plus rushing (or receiving) touchdowns. Which leads to my next point…
Keon Coleman excels as featured WR
Under head coach Joe Brady, the Bills want to play high-level football where they’re constantly in pursuit of points and attacking a defense from the start. We’ve seen that in Brady’s preference for starting on offense when winning the coin toss.
“Put the ball down” is this years mantra, fit for an oval car magnet. Brady wants the team to take the ball and score at every opportunity, and to stress defenses with a deadly and complete passing attack.
Yet since Week 3, the long pass has been a struggle. Well, at least passes traveling a ton of distance in the air. Much of that has to do with wide receiver DJ Moore’s shoulder injury and the way defenses are playing tight end Dalton Kincaid.
Where early on Moore and Kincaid helped fuel each other’s success thanks to the honesty teams had to utilize in covering both players, now Kincaid seems to have disappeared alongside Moore. To add insult to injury, now wide receiver Joshua Palmer is dealing with his own shoulder injury. Despite that, the Bills deploy the most explosive offense in the last decade.
A key part of that fact is due to the emergence of wide receiver Keon Coleman. Once thought of as a potential trade candidate, Coleman has blossomed in year three. He continues making “wow” catches despite added coverage cheating his way with Moore sidelined. There’s plenty of meat on the bone still for Coleman to steal, and I expect him to be deployed as a true WR1 against the Raiders.
Buffalo must figure things out with Kincaid, and the coaches should play it safe with Moore. They should also continue involving Shakir early, which could help calm the tsunami known as Maxx Crosby. All of those things should happen while trying to establish Coleman as the top target in the downfield passing attack.
Through five games, Coleman has made 15 catches on 18 targets for 224 yards and two touchdowns. That’s a highly efficient stat line, which is made more impressive by his 11 catches for a first down. Coleman has proven to be reliable and an important part of the passing game in 2026.
Last week he saw just two targets, with his lone catch going for seven yards and a touchdown. Expect to see Coleman worked into the plans well before crunch time on Sunday, even if Moore suits up. In fact, I like Coleman to hit at least 100 yards receiving in Week 6.
This is a pretty bold prediction. In fact, you can’t even wager for or against it with FanDuel Sportsbook. The only wagers you can place on Coleman are as a touchdown scorer. In that realm, we have the following for Coleman’s odds at scoring a touchdown:
Anytime TD scorer: Coleman (+290)
Last TD scorer: Coleman (+1600)
2+ TD scorer: Coleman (+3000)
Anytime 1st half TD scorer: Coleman (+600)
Anytime 2nd half TD scorer: Coleman (+600)
Anytime 1st Q TD scorer: Coleman (+1400)
Anytime 2nd Q TD scorer: Coleman (+900)
Anytime 3rd Q TD scorer: Coleman (+1400)
Anytime 4th Q TD scorer: Coleman (+950)
I like Coleman to score another touchdown this weekend, and he could be set to grab one in the first quarter.
James Cook holds onto the football
See? Bold, at least for the cynics. I know, I know… it feels like I’ve just cursed Cook to fumble again. (Someone cue up a reverse jinx!)
But real talk: How awful have Cook’s fumbles been for the team? Hold that thought: How impactful, more appropriately stated. Did you know that the Bills are 2-0 when Cook fumbles (at least) twice in a game this season? It’s true.
The man they call Jimbo is nearly unstoppable when he’s on. The fumbles are a blemish on what’s been a tremendous early season by Cook. But they shouldn’t define him, and right now they have defined him as a player. Defenders are targeting him with punches at the football, which has likely gotten into his head.
Cook would benefit from building an innate sense of covering the ball more thoroughly while slipping through traffic. That part part should prove easy to fix, but similar to Allen, Cook just needs to be Cook during games instead of allowing head games to take over.
Las Vegas’ defense is going to come after the football, but I believe in Cook and expect him to respond well to adversity. Anyone who watched him in LA knows how serious he took the situation. Look for a strong outing by Cook against the Raiders.
Think you’ve got what it takes to make a play with the Buffalo Bills in 2026? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook now and put your luck to the test!
Bills Mafia! Download the SB Nation app today!
Bring the energy of game day wherever you go and share every reaction with fellow members of the Bills Mafia.
- New live chat feature during the games
- Fewer ads
- Seamlessly jump between communities and conversations
- Faster commenting and posting experience!
Download the SB Nation app on iOS or Android.
