How much better do you think the Spurs are compared to last season?
Marilyn Dubinski: It’s hard to put a number to considering it’s the exact same team, with only other new talent guaranteed a main rotation spot yet to suit up, but even so, depth and maturity are already big factors that will make this team even better than last year. There’s still plenty of room for internal growth from three of their best players in Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Caste and Dylan Harper, Tobias Harris brings depth and dimension they lacked last year, and more improvement from Carter
Bryant and interior defense from Tarris Reed will help improve bench play. If nothing else, the Spurs will be less dependent on their stars compared to last season.
Jacob Douglas: From a talent and experience perspective, they are a level above last year’s team. Dylan Harper looks to be making the turn from impressive rookie to a legitimate star guard. Victor Wembanyama’s passing and vision seem to have taken another step forward. Even Carter Bryant looks more confident and aggressive. The additions of Tobias Harris and Tarris Reed Jr. give them more depth and physicality on the interior.
I do expect their regular season record to dip a bit, however. Mitch Johnson seems set on experimenting with the three-guard lineup which will likely have its ups and downs, even if it’s for the best long term. With fewer teams tanking and San Antonio more likely to rest players, I think we will see a rockier regular season that could potentially pay dividends in the postseason and moving forward.
Bill Huan: The team has leveled up on paper, as the young core continues to develop and gel. Even so, it’s entirely possible (and even likely) that they won’t get as far as they did last season, strictly due to the erratic nature of sports. Everything broke right for the Spurs during the playoff run, such as their core remaining relatively healthy, and things outside of their control went their way too: avoiding Denver in the postseason and facing an OKC team without JDub all contributed to the Finals run. So even if the team doesn’t make it back to the Finals, seeing the young core take another step forward should be considered a success.
Devon Birdsong: I think the reality is that this team has finally reached the place where how good they are can really only be determined in the postseason. That being said, they bolstered their weaknesses at power forward and big man depth. At this point, it’s hard to figure out exactly what their weakness will be, and they still won 60+ games with obvious flaws last year. Unless Hector Banana Bread ends up out of the picture, I’d be shocked if they won less than 60 games. They could probably sleepwalk to that number, and you definitely couldn’t say that about them last year.
Jeje Gomez: The big bet is on internal development, and it seems like a solid gamble. The names are largely the same, but several rotation players should be better. How much better and how much more cohesive can they be in a new starting lineup is the real question. I think the three-guard unit is worth exploring, but I don’t think it will necessarily get the team more wins in the short term. The incentive to not tank for the worst teams could also shave off a couple of wins. But ultimately, this seems like a more talented, well-rounded roster that should at least be as good in terms of seeding as last year’s squad.
True or false: Anything other than another Finals appearance would be a disappointment.
Dubinski: Mostly false (but we’d be lying to ourselves if we claimed we’d be fine with it come June). With so much parity in today’s NBA and teams barely even making consecutive Finals appearances, let alone winning consecutive titles, I wouldn’t kill them for missing the Finals. However, anything less than a competitive Western Conference Finals appearance would be disappointing, especially when they (and the Thunder) are a clear tier above the rest of the West, and the East is now the deeper conference with more contenders. (Unless of course their reason for missing the Finals is blown double-digit leads, then it would be a massive disappointment no matter which way you slice it.)
Douglas: False. But anything other than a WCF appearance would be. The Spurs and Thunder are clearly the two most talented teams in the NBA and will likely be fighting for the Western Conference crown for years to come. San Antonio won’t win all of those matchups. But failing to meet them in the WCF would be disappointing.
Huan: Absolutely false. As I said previously, everything broke right for the Spurs last year, and their success this season shouldn’t just be evaluated on whether or not they return to the finals. The team could very well take another step forward without going on as deep a playoff run, as success should also be measured in the individual growth of the young core and how they all gel, especially in the three-guard lineup.
Birdsong: Somewhat true, in the sense that the goal at this point should be chasing championships. Obviously there’s the reality that even the Duncan-era Spurs only made the Finals six times, but now that these Spurs have made the championship round, that’s going to be the expectation, especially as Wemby and Co. continue to ascend (and even more so in the event that they don’t). Yes, the young Spurs made their leap early, but that doesn’t exempt them from the weight of expectation. You can ask the Durant-era Thunder about that. I would say the difference is that it wouldn’t be a hopeless disappointment. With Timmy, it always felt like next year could still be their year. I think the same will be true with Wemby, even when they fall short.
Gomez: True, I guess. When you make the Finals, keep your entire core intact, and add a few pieces, it feels like the expectations should be set high. I doubt anyone would be asking for Mitch Johnson’s head or for a big trade (not involving Fox) if the Spurs get to the Conference Finals and lose, but this team, as young as it is, is built to win big. If that doesn’t happen, I don’t think it would be crazy to call it a disappointment.
What’s your boldest prediction about the upcoming Spurs season?
Dubinski: Tarris Reed eventually passes Luke Kornet in the rotation. Kornet was arguably the best backup center in the NBA last season before a disappointing playoff run, and that falloff from the playoffs would have to continue well into the season (proving it was no fluke and/or a sign that he has past his prime) for Reed to surpass him, but it’s certainly possible if it means not having to be too dependent on Wemby.
Douglas: Jayden Quaintance plays meaningful minutes in the NBA playoffs. He will come back from knee surgery recovery in mid-February, ramping back up to a full minutes load by the end of the season. His defense behind Wembanyama will be so good that the team is forced to give him a role. His presence eliminates last year’s team’s problem of defensive drop-off when Wemby sits.
Huan: This might be more of a hot take rather than a bold prediction, but I can see Castle sacrificing the most in the backcourt logjam. It’s clear that Harper will be the #2 option long-term with a ceiling higher than Castle’s, and Fox is still needed for his reliable ball-handling and veteran presence. Naturally, that would leave Castle as the odd man out, and I can see a scenario where he seems to stagnate a bit. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, though, as it’s all a part of the growing pains for a young player and letting him develop some off-ball skills will be beneficial for everyone long-term.
Birdsong: The Spurs will cut through the Western Conference in both the regular season and the postseason like butter, on the way to the title. The preseason is always the preseason, but I think that a lot of Spurs players have largely downplayed how locked in they’re going to be. A lot of the Western contenders have taken roster hits, and the top-heavy contenders in the East still have some chemistry things to figure out. Barring injury and/or the rise of someone or something completely unexpected, I think this is San Antonio’s year. I don’t just think they’re going to win, I think they’re going to dominate. No one is deeper, no one is angrier, and no one else is so obviously on the rise.
Gomez: One of the three guards will be coming off the bench by All-Star weekend. I love that Coach Johnson is willing to give the combination a try but, at least right now, it seems like the best option is to play a more traditional, bigger lineup, arguably as soon as Tobias Harris is ready to go. The wear and tear that playing four smaller players and Wembanyama during the entire regular season would entail simply doesn’t seem worth it, unless the starting unit blitzes opponents into submission and the stars get to rest in the fourth quarter. I’m not sure that will happen, so I believe there will be an adjustment made midseason.
