Obviously, the news broke yesterday and one of the biggest benefits of making a trade with a team playing in your stadium is that the results are instantaneous. However, performance happens over the long haul. As much as I love wins above replacement, I will jettison those numbers and instead focus on its components. We will start with the simple and move to the complex.
The simplest numbers are the slash line statistics and their cousin the Statcast numbers. Those can tell us whether a player is actually
performing better and whether the basic results match the predicted results. Statcast uses batted ball data to determine if the player is experiencing good luck or bad luck. When we look at those Statcast numbers over a period of five seasons we can see if Varsho is performing as well as he has in past seasons or not.
Numbers are particularly telling when you look at the Statcast version. They are rarely as good as they are at their best or as bad as they are when they are at their worst. In three out of the five seasons, he lived between a .663 and .692 OPS. That seems to be the territory that we can most expect Varsho to land in. I’m not completely shutting down this trade based on only these numbers. That would be irresponsible and short-sighted. However, if the goal was to find a top-flight lefty bat then it looks like they have failed on that level.
The next level is to look at some more hardcore sabermetric numbers. These are numbers that I mostly refer to as process numbers. Instead of looking at results we are looking at more raw action. That includes chase rate, swing rate, contact rate, and hard hit percentage. I will also include bases per out even though it is not a process stat. Since we like to give everyone a reference point, the league average for these stats are below.
Chase: 30 percent
Swing: 47.5 percent
Contact: 76 percent
Hard Hit: 40 percent
Bases per out: .674
So, let’s start with the good news. Varsho generally makes more contact than the average hitter and his contact has generally been just as hard as it usually has been. So, if your contact rate goes up and the hardness of contact remains level then your batting average is sure to get better and it generally has. Mind you, he’s not going to hit for an extremely high average with this profile. His hard hit percentage is still below league average, so it is hard to see him hitting well above .250 unless he has a lot of batted ball luck.
The bad news is that the swing rates and chase rates have steadily increased. That can happen for a number of reasons. Most of the time it happens later in a player’s career when their hand eye coordination slows down. They need to start the swing sooner which leaves you susceptible to chasing. It can also happen when pitchers challenge you more often. They get ahead which makes it more difficult to lay off pitches when you are behind in the count. That typically happens when a player’s power diminishes.
2023 or 2024 Varsho would have been ideal on a number of fronts. You would have a more patient hitter with a little more pop in his bat. The other front is the fielding front. Varsho has the reputation of being a Gold Glove defender. The question always is whether the reputation matches the performance. We will look at defensive runs saved, outs above average, and fielding run value. In each case zero is average.
As they said in Major League, “Wish we would have had him two years ago.” Four years ago may have been even better, Essentially, you are looking at a two to three win defender at his peak depending on the source. In 2023 and 2024 the BWAR would be almost four. He is still a better than replacement level defender, but he is closer to league average now. Clearly, he has lost a step and sprint speed numbers bear that out as well.
So, if you want to put a name on this, the club essentially has acquired 2025 Jake Meyers. Meyers came through with a .700 OPS and played better than average defense. That should be the hope for Varsho. Does that move the needle any? I suppose it is better than what they were throwing out there, but this wasn’t the same as everywhere else at the deadline.
