As Nasim Nunez stared at a well placed sinker, it really hit me that this Nationals season is over. The 2025 Washington Nationals are now part of the history books. It will not be a chapter that is looked
back on fondly, but if the team plays their cards right, it could be the year where the first needed changes were made.
Heading into the season, expectations for the Nationals were higher than they had been the last few years. After back to back 71-91 seasons, the goal was to push towards .500 and be in the mix deep into the season. That was the message both Mike Rizzo and Davey Martinez sent in Spring Training.
Sure, the Nats did not break the bank in the offseason, but they made some moves to help improve the team. Most notably, the Nats traded for Nathaniel Lowe to be their first baseman. Lowe had been one of the most consistent players in baseball the previous four seasons, but he was just not a fit in DC.
He posted a .665 OPS in DC before getting released on August 14th. To add insult to injury, Lowe rebounded and went back to his Texas levels once he joined the Red Sox. It was just that kind of year for the Washington Nationals.
That is why they finished 66-96 and fired Mike Rizzo and Davey Martinez. Let’s talk about those firings because those are the most important things to come out of this season. Davey Martinez and especially Mike Rizzo had become ever presents for Nationals fans. It became tough to imagine life without them.
However, life without them has come. They were both fired in early July after an absolutely miserable June. Mike DeBartolo and Miguel Cairo held down the fort for the rest of the season, but further changes are coming.
The arrival of Paul Toboni should change everything. As a 35 year old who has immersed himself in the modern game, Toboni will be a very different voice to Mike Rizzo, who was an old school guy. In the 2020’s, Rizzo struggled to adapt to the game, but Toboni is right on the cutting edge. With the Lerner’s closing up the check books, the Nats will need to be on the cutting edge to survive. It is possible to win with a smaller budget, but you need to use analytics heavily to do that.
Toboni should bring that to the Nationals. He will also bring much needed scouting acumen. Over the past decade, the Nationals have struggled mightily in the draft. Rizzo has whiffed on first round pick after first round pick. Given his drafting track record in Boston, it is easy to envision Toboni turning around the Nats drafting. It is critical to reversing the losing culture that has set in over the past half decade.
Given the state of the team, fans should not expect a quick turnaround in 2026. The team finished 29th in ERA and 24th in OPS. Spending alone will not get you out of that kind of hole. The organization needs to do a better job developing talent and that is why they brought in Toboni.
However, it is not all bad. There are a few pieces to build around here. One of the big surprises of 2025 was the emergence of Daylen Lile. He had a September for the ages and the 22 year old established himself as a piece of the Nationals core. For the season, he hit .299 with an .845 OPS. Lile hit 9 homers, 15 doubles and an insane 11 triples. He was my favorite part of a disappointing campaign.
Despite tailing off in the second half, James Wood also established himself as a foundational piece. He hit 31 homers with 94 RBI’s in his first full season. His batting average was .256 and his OPS was .825. Some of the opposite field homers he hit were downright ridiculous.
Sure, the strikeouts are an issue he needs to fix. Wood will always be a high strikeout guy, but his flirtation with the all time strikeout record at the end of the year was a bit embarrassing. For the season, Wood struck out 221 times. To reach that star level we know he can get to, that needs to come down.
There are also more pieces that should interest Paul Toboni. While MacKenzie Gore and CJ Abrams tailed off in the second half, they had solid seasons on the whole. Brad Lord and Cade Cavalli also showed flashes in the rotation. Jose A. Ferrer, Cole Henry and Clayton Beeter did the same in the bullpen.
However, Toboni will be looking to unlock more out of some other Nats youngsters. Dylan Crews and Brady House struggled pretty badly at the MLB level. Crews showed some flashes, but has yet to put it all together offensively. House looked overmatched in his first taste of MLB action. His power needs to show up.
I am very curious to see what Toboni does with the coaching staff. This much maligned 2025 staff is as good as gone, but I am interested to see what kind of manager comes in. Will Toboni go with a fresh young manager to relate to a young team, or an older manager that can instill some discipline in a team that has gotten too loose. Dylan Crews’ comments about accountability were really telling.
Nailing the hires for the hitting and pitching coach positions is also paramount. Darnell Coles and Jim Hickey/Sean Doolittle were not getting the most out of these guys. Especially on the offensive side of the ball, a lot of meat was being left on the bone. When Nats hitters went on slumps, things spiraled out of control. On the pitching side, they threw too many fastballs, though a lot of their struggles just come down to a lack of talent.
Paul Toboni is going to have to determine the direction of a franchise that has been rudderless since the 2019 World Series. While this was a highly disappointing season, it is one of the most important ones in recent memory.
It was the year where the Mike Rizzo rebuild officially failed. He was failed by ownership, but he also did not deliver in the draft like he needed to. Now it is time to see what Paul Toboni can do. The first step to solve a problem is recognizing the problem exists.
The Lerner family realized that things were not going well and finally acted. Now it is time for them to back Paul Toboni. That backing goes beyond just Free Agent signings. They need to let him enact his vision and modernize this organization.
Honestly, it is going to be tough to attract big name free agents this offseason. If Pete Alonso has similar offers from the Nats and the Mets, why would he join the Nats. Right now, they are a losing franchise. Paul Toboni needs to get things going in the right direction with mid-level free agent signings and shrewd trades. Once the team shows they are headed in the right direction, the big name free agents will be attracted if the money is right.
2025 was one of the more painful Nats seasons I can remember. It was supposed to be a year where the team went forwards. Instead they regressed and played a painful brand of baseball. However, the organization finally got shaken up. If Paul Toboni can turn around this ship, the suffering from this season could all be worth it in the end.
