After a 2-0 start following victories against the Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders, two teams that made the 2024 playoffs, the Green Bay Packers seemed to be on top of the world. They were considered a top-three team in the NFL going into Week 3, and there were clear Super Bowl expectations for the squad.
Then came back-to-back games where the Packers had wins stripped from them in part due to blocked field goal attempts. Now, they’re 2-1-1 going into the bye.
Despite that, Green Bay ranks first
in explosive plays allowed on defense and third on offense (first through the air), which just goes to show you how much special teams influenced their loss to the Cleveland Browns and their tie against the Dallas Cowboys.
So, where do we stand, as far as expectations go, with this Packers team for the remainder of the year? I want to take you through what the NFC outlook looks like entering Week 5 of the season and hear back from you guys if this Super Bowl-or-bust mentality has changed for any Green Bay fans.
Packers remaining schedule
- Week 6: vs. Cincinnati Bengals
- Week 7: @ Arizona Cardinals
- Week 8: @ Pittsburgh Steelers
- Week 9: vs. Carolina Panthers
- Week 10: vs. Philadelphia Eagles
- Week 11: @ New York Giants
- Week 12: vs. Minnesota Vikings
- Week 13: @ Detroit Lions
- Week 14: vs. Chicago Bears
- Week 15: @ Denver Broncos
- Week 16: @ Chicago Bears
- Week 17: vs. Baltimore Ravens
- Week 18: @ Minnesota Vikings
Based on the lookahead lines, the Packers are expected to be short underdogs in four games for the remainder of the season, against the Eagles, Lions, Broncos and Ravens. Notably, the Eagles and Ravens games are at Lambeau Field.
They should be two-touchdown favorites against the Bengals in Week 6, their next opponent. Based on the odds out there right now, the Eagles, Lions and Packers are still neck and neck in terms of NFC title odds, too.
NFC playoff probability
- 93%: Philadelphia Eagles (4-0)
- 88%: Los Angeles Rams (3-1)
- 76%: Detroit Lions (3-1), Green Bay Packers (2-1-1)
- 75%: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1)
- 58%: Seattle Seahawks (3-1)
- 56%: San Francisco 49ers (3-1)
- 44%: Atlanta Falcons (2-2)
- 38%: Washington Commanders (2-2)
- 27%: Minnesota Vikings (2-2)
- 24%: Arizona Cardinals (2-2)
- 17%: Chicago Bears (2-2)
- 14%: Dallas Cowboys (1-2-1)
- 6%: Carolina Panthers (1-3)
- 5%: New York Giants (1-3)
- 4%: New Orleans Saints (0-4)
All of these numbers are brought to you by NFL Pro. Despite being 2-1-1, they have about the same playoff odds as the 3-1 Lions, who the Packers beat in Week 1. For whatever reason, there’s a large gap between the Rams’ chances to make the playoffs and their ability to make a run for the NFC title.
NFC 1-seed probability
- 37%: Philadelphia Eagles (4-0)
- 22%: Los Angeles Rams (3-1)
- 11%: Detroit Lions (3-1)
- 9%: Green Bay Packers (2-1-1)
- 5%: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1), Seattle Seahawks (3-1)
- 4%: San Francisco 49ers (3-1)
- 2%: Atlanta Falcons (2-2), Washington Commanders (2-2)
- 1%: Minnesota Vikings (2-2), Arizona Cardinals (2-2)
- 0%: Chicago Bears (2-2), Dallas Cowboys (1-2-1), Carolina Panthers (1-3), New York Giants (1-3), New Orleans Saints (0-4)
Again, these are NFL Pro numbers. As it stands right now, the Packers have less than a one-in-ten chance of becoming the top seed in the NFC this year, which means they’re likely to play in the wildcard round if they make the postseason in 2025. If they’re edged out by the Lions for the NFC North title, they’ll be doing so on the road.
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So what do you expect from Green Bay for the rest of the year? Are they winning the division? Are they winning the NFC? Let’s hear from you in the comment section below.
