In their recent episode covering win total over/unders for the western conference, Nate Duncan and Danny Leroux of the Dunc’d On Podcast (subscription required) both picked the over on the Portland Trail
Blazers, and both expect Portland to have a top-10 defense. The Blazers’ win total is set at 34.5 wins by Caesars Sportsbook (conversation starts at 1:09:53):
Nate: I think your case for the over is that these guys would be awesome on defense and I think Donovan Clingan is someone who really can make a difference there as a rim protector, and they’re just not going to have many if any weak links that they’re playing. Toumani Camara is an All-Defense level player. Jerami Grant still, even though he had a down year and couldn’t make a two-pointer, he still is someone you respect from the outside and he can guard his position pretty well. Deni Avdija is not someone that you’re going to attack either. They brought in Jrue Holiday, too… so, the one thing I think is interesting is it’s not like they were reliant on Anferenee Simons for their offense last year. I expected to look on there and be like, “Oh yeah, he had this like really good offensive rating relative to when he was off the floor.” And that’s not the case… I think these guys are easily going to be a top-10 defense. It would be a pretty big disappointment if they’re not. And you know, maybe just backup center will kill them. That that’s the only way I figure that it’s going to go awry.
Danny: I’m looking for the last time a team with a [top 10 defenses had a differential] in this range and it just hasn’t happened in a long time. I’m at 2020, and I still haven’t gotten to a single team that was top 10 on defense and had like a 34 win differential… I am deeply concerned about their offense… they just don’t have enough guys that can generate good shots, and they don’t even have a lot of guys who like, oh, if you can if they can figure that part of it out that are going to be great at converting. That’s not the biggest strength in Jrue Holiday’s game, though he can hit open shots, and and I really like Avdija… but I think they have enough guys that can get the ball down the floor. I think they can make that work. And they’re better on this end of the floor than any of the other teams in this vicinity, in terms of West over/unders, is on ANY end of the floor. And I think that’s something I feel comfortable hanging on.
They also talked about how well the Blazers played from January on, but had concerns about the Blazers’ depth, particularly at center given Roberts Williams III’s current injury (and injury history) and that Yang Hansen may not be ready for heavy rotation minutes.
For reference, the following are the seasons the Blazers had a top-10 defense, how many wins they earned that season, and their coach:
- 2017-18: 8th defense, 49 wins (Terry Stotts)
- 2014-15: 10th, 51 wins (Stotts)
- 2000-01: 9th, 50 wins (Mike Dunleavy)
- 1999-2000: 5th, 59 wins (Dunleavy)
- 1998-99: 6th, 35 wins [50-game season] (Dunleavy)
- 1997-98: 8th, 46 wins (Dunleavy)
- 1996-97: 7th, 49 wins (P.J. Carlesimo)
- 1995-96: 5th, 44 wins (Carlesimo)
- 1994-95: 7th, 44 wins (Carlesimo)
- 1992-93: 4th, 51 wins (Rick Adelman)
- 1991-92: 3rd, 57 wins (Adelman)
- 1990-91: 3rd, 63 wins (Adelman)
- 1989-90: 4th, 59 wins (Adelman)
- 1987-88: 10th, 53 wins (Mike Schuler)
- 1984-85: 8th, 42 wins (Jack Ramsay)
- 1982-83: 10th, 46 wins (Ramsay)
- 1979-80: 10th, 38 wins (Ramsay)
- 1978-79: 9th, 45 wins (Ramsay)
- 1977-78: 2nd, 58 wins (Ramsay)
- 1976-77: 5th, 49 wins (Ramsay)
- 1975-76: 6th, 37 wins (Lenny Wilkins)
- 1974-75: 6th, 38 wins (Wilkins)
This means a few things:
- The Blazers have had a top-10 defense in 22 of their 55 seasons (this year being their 56th).
- It’s generationally anomalous for the Blazers to have had a top-10 defense only twice in 25 years after having one 20 times in the 30 years before… THEY’RE DUE!
- The Blazers have NEVER had fewer than 35 wins with a top-10 defense, including the lockout-shortened 50-game 1998-99 season.
- When the Blazers have a top-10 defense, they average 49 wins.
Do you think the Blazers will have a top-10 defense? And if so, does this practically GUARANTEE a sneaky 50-win season?
