In coach Scott Frost’s first year back at the helm of UCF Football, success is defined by progress.
With a new roster and coaching staff under him, Frost is sticking to his “Rise and Conquer” mantra that occupies merchandise and space on the program’s walls.
“Sometimes [success] happens slower than you want, sometimes it happens faster than you want,” Frost said before the beginning of fall camp. “Last time I was here, it happened a lot faster than I think even we expected.”
“It’s got to be daily progress
for us.”
Frost understands the road ahead will not be easy, and expectations for this iteration of the Knights are not exactly skyrocketing. A recent Big 12 football preview by ESPN projects UCF near the bottom of the conference in win total at 3.4.
Beyond Frost’s concrete aspirations, here are three categories in which the Knights may demonstrate success:
Stability at Quarterback
Let’s face it, last season went as poorly as it did in large part because of the quarterback carousel under former head coach Gus Malzahn. It is certainly not all Malzahn’s fault, as UCF’s prize pickup for the position in KJ Jefferson quickly became unplayable. After an uninspiring week 5 loss to the Florida Gators, Jefferson never saw the field again for the Knights.
After benching Jefferson, the coaching staff began tossing various signal callers in the starting role until someone could stick under center. This process continued for three weeks until first-year quarterback Dylan Rizk put on a show against Arizona in the Space Game, effectively winning him the job for the rest of the season.
This season, Frost is in charge, and while it took him a bit longer than other coaches around the power conference landscape to choose his starter, he eventually landed on Cam Fancher, the Florida Atlantic University transfer and former Marshall quarterback, to start week 1 against Jacksonville State.
Fancher’s touchdown-to-interception ratio is cause for concern after he has thrown an equal number of both in his last two seasons. However, he did complete 65.6 percent of his throws in 2023 at Marshall. In 2024, Fancher had an uphill battle behind a struggling FAU offensive line, as the Owls ranked No. 104 with 32 sacks allowed.
In his fifth year, Fancher may have better protection and, by extension, erase some of his mistakes as a more experienced quarterback.
It is best if Fancher remains the long-term answer for the season. But even if he is not, Frost has a chance to make a smoother transition to the next guy than Malzahn did.
Run Game Production
It is going to be difficult to replicate the greatness of RJ Harvey’s tenure in a Knights uniform, but there is cause for optimism with the current running back room. We finally get a better look at Myles Montgomery, and Jaden Nixon is a quality transfer. Unfortunately, four-star freshman Taevion Swint is set to miss time with a meniscus injury, but redshirt freshman Stacy Gage can help fill the void.
Last season, UCF finished with the fifth best rushing offense in the nation, mainly because of Harvey. No running back currently on the roster may be able to replicate the dominance of the program’s all-time touchdown leader, but the depth is more significant in 2025.
Red Zone Resistance
Despite having a solid rushing defense last season (No. 29), UCF’s red zone defense left much to be desired.
Out of 133 FBS teams, the Knights came in at No. 117 in red zone defense. Opponents converted in the red zone against them at a clip of nearly 91 percent (40/44). UCF allowed 15 passing touchdowns, 12 rushing touchdowns, and 13 field goals in this area.
If defensive coordinator Alex Grinch can rebuild and maintain this aspect of the defense in his inaugural season with the team while remaining consistent in other areas, then UCF will have a better chance to come away with wins in close came situations that it squandered last season.
Bowl Eligibility
While no one should hold their breath for the Knights to win the National Championship, returning to bowl eligible status is an attainable goal. This is not the same listless team from last season that went 1-7 after starting the year 3-0. While national expectations are not high, the roster has enough talent to produce a 6-6 campaign at the least. Returning to bowl-ready form will benefit the program in more ways than one.
What do you think?
We surveyed you, the fans, to tell us how you think UCF will do this year in each game, what the postseason will look like, and what you think is a reasonable benchmark for success in 2025.
121 fans voted, and here are the results:
| Game | Win | Loss | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville State | 97% | 3% | Win |
| North Carolina A&T | 100% | 0% | Win |
| North Carolina | 79% | 21% | Win |
| @ K-State | 20% | 80% | Loss |
| Kansas | 58% | 42% | Win |
| @ Cincinnati | 72% | 28% | Win |
| West Virginia | 69% | 31% | Win |
| @ Baylor | 24% | 76% | Loss |
| Houston | 88% | 12% | Win |
| @ Texas Tech | 13% | 87% | Loss |
| Oklahoma State | 79% | 21% | Win |
| @ BYU | 26% | 74% | Loss |
Fans’ expected game-by-game record: 8-4
Will UCF make a bowl game?
| Yes | 80% |
| No | 20% |
Will UCF make the Big 12 Championship Game?
| Yes, and we’ll win it! | 17% |
| Yes, but we’ll lose it. | 3% |
| No. | 79% |
Will UCF make the College Football Playoff?
| Yes | 16% |
| No | 84% |
What do you consider a MINIMALLY successful season for UCF in 2025?
| .500 record (6-6) and a bowl appearance | 53% |
| .500 record (6-6) and a bowl WIN | 9% |
| Above .500 record (7 wins or more) and a bowl appearance | 17% |
| Above .500 record (7 wins or more) and a bowl WIN | 8% |
| Earn a spot in the Big 12 Championship (top-2 finish) | 3% |
| Win the Big 12 Championship | 3% |
| Earn a spot in the College Football Playoff | 7% |
