If any position serves as a microcosm of the Astros 2025 season it is left field. It started with Jose Altuve in left field and Yordan Alvarez at designated hitter and ended with neither of them playing
in left field. It also started with Zach Dezenzo in a supportive role, but by the time June rolled around he was nowhere in the picture. He did play in Sugar Land late in the season, but he would not return to the big leagues.
Any conversation about the 2026 season should start here. On the one hand, there is a certain assumption that you are going to be healthier. One can’t imagine a team bungling a healing process more than the Astros bungled Alvarez’s hand injury. That is unless you include any other injuries they have mishandled over the past few years. They have hired a new training staff and hopefully some of those issues will be in the rearview mirror. A healthy and productive Alvarez changes the entire complexion of the Astros offense.
Furthermore, Dezenzo seemed to be coming around before he was lost for the season with his own mysterious hand injury. Would he have come around and performed better than the list of guys that ended up playing left field for the Astros? The answer to that riddle is the answer to the 2026 season. On the one hand, you are assuming better health and that would seem like a safe assumption. On the other hand, you are assuming productivity out of a player that hasn’t produced at the big league level. That would seem to be a much longer bet.
Alvarez is a guy that produces a BPO above .900 when he is healthy and productive. When you put that in the middle of the lineup the Astros look a lot different offensively. Now, all of the sudden you are looking at two players with a BPO above .800 and three additional hitters with a BPO above ,700. No one would mistake them for the 1927 Yankees or the Big Red Machine, but that would be a credible big league offense. Throw in possible improvement from guys like Christian Walker, Yainer Diaz, and continued production from Jake Meyers of the world. Heck, even Cam Smith might end up producing more than he did in 2025.
That is the Astros plan in a nutshell. Simply get more health and more production from most of the guys in the lineup while getting the same production from the group of players that performed well. This is what I lovingly call “magical thinking.” Magical thinking occurs when fans and teams assume that slumping players will rebound while ascending players will continue to ascend. Unfortunately, baseball and life rarely ever works out that way. Occasionally, it all comes together, but serendipity is not an actionable plan.
The good news is that some of those things will be true. The Astros three best hitters in 2025 all spent considerable time on the shelf. That is unlikely to happen again. It is also true that at least some of the struggling hitters will perform better. Those are just the odds. We could buy Yainer Diaz being a little more patient. We could buy Christian Walker finding a hole in his swing and returning closer to career norms. We could buy Cam Smith and Jesus Sanchez taking a step closer to being credible corner outfielders offensively. What is hard to buy is all of those things happening at the same time.
However, if the Astros continue with their offseason plan then that is what they are gambling on. If they deal Jake Meyers and/or Jesus Sanchez then they are gambling on some combination of Dezenzo, Smith, and Zach Cole performing as credible big league hitters. All players start somewhere, so it would be foolish to say that it can’t happen, but it hasn’t happened yet. It is one thing to keep them there and allow yourself to be pleasantly surprised. It is another thing to bank on it as if it is all part of the plan.
I put this in the backdrop of my governing philosophy. I am like a bad shopping cart that pulls to the right no matter which way it is facing. I will beat the drum for offense as a general rule. The Astros were 21st in runs scored last season but 9th in runs allowed. Yet, the entire focus of the offseason has been on adding more pitching. We will get to pitcher BPO soon enough and looking at that data will certainly be sobering, but the Astros have shown a consistent ability to get as much out of their pitching as possible. They haven’t shown the same on the offensive end.
This wouldn’t be so annoying if it weren’t for the fact that this is a pattern with the Astros. A cursory look at Astros history would show that their pitching has outpaced their hitting more often than not. Yet, every general manager bangs the drum for more pitching. I will never turn down quality pitching and I have nothing against acquiring it. The problem I have is with assuming everything will go according to plan on offense while focusing on shoring up pitching. Naturally, the problem for most Astros fans is that they haven’t done either yet this offseason.
The dimension of time is one many fans and analysts overlook. There is nothing gained specifically by acting now. The only advantage is that there are more players to choose from. However, these problems could be addressed in January, February, March, or even during the season. Obviously, the list of available players will change and so the cost in dollars or player capital will change. What we can say is that we hope there is a plan beyond magical thinking.
