From the start of the season, Sparks head coach Lynne Roberts made it clear that reaching the playoffs was the goal for this year. With 10 games left, that achievement is still possible, but things are very tight in the standings.
There is only a two-and-a-half game gap between the No. 6 spot and the No. 10 seed in the WNBA. With only eight teams making the postseason, a couple of franchises will narrowly miss and it could come down to which teams own the tiebreaker.
In the WNBA, for head-to-head situations,
this is how record ties are broken.
Better record in head-to-head games
Better winning percentage against all teams with .500 or better record at the end of the season
Better point differential in games net result of total points scored less total points allowed head-to-head
Better point differential net result of total points scored less total points allowed against all opponents
Here is the tiebreaker situation between the Sparks and all the teams fighting for the final two playoff spots.
Indiana Fever
The Fever are currently the sixth seed, but with Caitlin Clark still out and now Sophie Cunningham done for the year, they are on very shaky ground. The Sparks have owned the Fever, winning all three games so far. The two teams will face each other one more time, but regardless of the outcome, Los Angeles will own the tiebreaker over Indiana.
Golden State Valkyries
The Valkyries already have the most wins by an expansion team in WNBA history and are in a good position to add a playoff berth to their list of accomplishments. They are currently sitting as the No. 7 seed and won the season series against the Sparks 3-1.
If things are even between the California rivals after all 44 regular-season games are played, the Valkyries will have the advantage.
Seattle Storm
The Sparks are in a great position to get in front of the Storm for the eighth and final playoff spot. They are up in the season series 2-1 and have one more game against the Storm on Sept. 1 in Seattle.
If they win that game, they’ll secure the tiebreaker. Considering they are currently just a half-game behind the Storm, that could be a big deal.
If Seattle wins that game and both teams are tied at the end of the regular season, then the next factor will be winning percentage against .500 and above teams. In that category, the Sparks hold a narrow lead, having won 43% of those games, while the Storm have won 42%.
LA can make their situation a lot easier by simply beating the Storm the next time they play them.
Washington Mystics
The Sparks recently lost to the Mystics, and that defeat could prove costly. Los Angeles holds a 2-1 edge in their head-to-head contests, but they still have one more game to go. If Washington wins that matchup, then the tiebreaker will go to the team that’s won more against .500 and above opponents.
This scenario is identical to the Sparks’ situation with the Storm. Los Angeles has a 43% record when playing .500 and above teams and the Mystics have come out on top in 42% of those matchups.
Again, the Sparks can earn the edge and not have to worry about multiple scenarios if they just beat the Mystics straight up.
Overall, while the race to the playoffs is a tight one, the Sparks control their destiny.
If they finish strong in these last 10 games and beat the Mystics and the Storm, they’ll own the tiebreaker over all of these teams minus Golden State.
All things considered, that’s a good place to be. Now, they just have to get the job done.
You can follow Edwin on Twitter at @ECreates88 or on Bluesky at @ecreates88.bsky.social.
