BCB’s front-page writers have done several of these roundtable discussions previewing Cubs seasons and postseasons, so here we are again to get ready for the Wild Card Series that begins this evening. Josh, Sara, Thomas, Jeff and I had a lively online conversation Monday afternoon. The online chat has been lightly edited for clarity. Ashley was unable to join us for this discussion.
Al Yellon: So. Here we are in the postseason again. Has this been the weirdest Cubs season you have ever seen, or what?
Josh Timmers: Hadn’t thought about it that way, but possibly! It certainly has been weird.
Jeff Brown: Every week, I’ve come to think that I have a good chance I’ll see something I’ve never seen before. And it’s happened a lot.
Al Yellon: 10 game winning streaks! 10 game losing streak! Fantastic hitting! Horrific pitching!
Sara Sanchez: I don’t know that it’s that weird, it’s what happens when you’re very good at some things and very bad at others.
Al Yellon: One thing the Cubs do have: The best player in baseball in Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Jeff Brown: Yep.
Josh Timmers: Yes. I thought he’d be good. I didn’t think he’d be this good.
Sara Sanchez: And the Brewers have the best pitcher….and the Padres have the best reliever…
Al Yellon: And yet, the Cubs have hit Mason Miller this year. He is not invincible.
Thomas Smith: I do always feel it’s important to note that while Cubs pitching scares me, statistically they’re not terrible.
Josh Timmers: The question, though, is can you detach the Cubs’ pitching from their defense? From some metrics, the defense is really saving the pitching staff’s rears.
Al Yellon: Oh, for sure, Josh.
Josh Timmers: They beat the Miz, didn’t they?
Thomas Smith: Without question, Josh. Fortunately the defense is still here. Particularly if Bregman can field.
Al Yellon: Looks like Bregman will be the DH in the Wild Card series. But Pedro Ramirez is a pretty good defensive 3B.
Jeff Brown: Agreed about the defense. It’s almost stunningly shocking when there’s a bobble.
Sara Sanchez: I think the only reason the pitching is not a disaster is the defense. But I also think having the following rankings is bad:
SP: fWAR 26th
RP: fWAR 28th
Jeff Brown: When Thomas mentioned that there are areas that the Cubs aren’t statistically horrible. I wasn’t stunned to see the Padres are fifth in bullpen ERA. I was surprised that the Cubs were ninth. How far distant, I’m not sure.
Thomas Smith: Yeah. But at the end of the day it’s run prevention, right?
Josh Timmers: It is run prevention that matters. And the Cubs defense is elite. Can’t help if everyone gives up HRs, though.
Sara Sanchez: The Cubs have the second worst HR/FB % in baseball at 13.5%. The Rays are third at 13.0%.
Thomas Smith: Right. Gotta keep it in the park. The worst long ball guys won’t pitch much.
Josh Timmers: Is that bad luck or bad skill, Sara?
Sara Sanchez: The only other team in the top 10 by that metric in the playoffs is Philadelphia at eighth and 11.9%. I mean, it’s a bit of bad luck but it’s also because this team’s rotation is built on a bunch of guys who pitch to contact and can’t afford to make mistakes — Shōta, Jameson Taillon, Javier Assad, etc.
Jeff Brown: Something that I heard that was interesting — hold Holmes back to be long relief if needed. I just don’t want Shōta in this series.
Al Yellon: Holmes has relief experience so that might work.
Thomas Smith: Boyd might benefit from an extra rest day.
Jeff Brown: And Gausman as much rest as possible.
Al Yellon: I put this in my article yesterday and it is utterly shocking how good the Cubs offense is by fWAR and how bad the pitching is:
Jeff Brown: Yeahhhh, I saw that. Wow.
Thomas Smith: Low K/high homers. Right?
Josh Timmers: Padres don’t have much of a platoon split between lefties and righties. So the Cubs left-handed starting rotation probably neither helps nor hurts.
Sara Sanchez: Yes they do — the Padres have a 104 team wRC+ against righties and a 98 against lefties.
Al Yellon: That doesn’t seem like that significant a split, though.
Sara Sanchez: It’s not terribly stark, but it is a split. A 6 percentile difference in run production seems worth keeping an eye to me, albeit not one worth making every decision on that basis.
Josh Timmers: Hmm. I was looking at tOPS+, which is 101 and 97, which is too small in my mind to make a difference. Maybe they steal bases better against right handers?
Al Yellon: The Padres do have two strong RH power guys in Machado and Tatis, though. One of the keys, IMO, is if Jacob Webb can be like he was during the scoreless streak he had.
Thomas Smith: I think Counsell has to pretty much manage inning to inning.
Sara Sanchez: I think the bigger problem in this series is that the Padres are hot and the Cubs are….um….less hot.
Josh Timmers: I think the Padres are hot because they got to play the Rockies, the Giants and an unmotivated Dodgers team.
Sara Sanchez: 16-2 in their last 18 games is a nice roll to be on with home field advantage as you open a 3 game series, especially when you opponent went to Boston for a DH, then Tampa for a game then San Diego to play at 10 p.m. ET.
Al Yellon: I think everything resets when the postseason starts. Six of those 16 wins were by one run — close games. Could have gone either way.
Thomas Smith: I think back to the 2015 Mets season. Cubs were scorching and hit a brick wall. It can all flip.
Josh Timmers: Yeah. No one has found any correlation between going into the postseason “Hot” or “cold” and results. At least not that I’ve seen. And I’m sure we can all find some examples of teams in both directions.
Sara Sanchez: I agree that you have momentum until you don’t, but I also think I’d rather be the Padres than the Cubs right now.
Al Yellon: The Cubs did win two of three from the Padres at Petco in April.
Jeff Brown: The Padres are hot. The Cubs need to get to the Padres’ starters quick and have to minimize their effect on the ballgame.
Sara Sanchez: The Cubs probably need to come out and put a halt to the Padres momentum.
Josh Timmers: I can say that the one matchup I didn’t want to see was the Padres in San Diego. Not that I think the Cubs can’t win, but I think they fell into the toughest road.
Thomas Smith: Even just being at home gives them that edge anyway.
Al Yellon: That being the case, I think winning Game 1 is really important.
Thomas Smith: This team isn’t going to be overwhelmed by the moment. They’ll battle. Someone will execute better.
Al Yellon: One thing about this team is that they have multiple players with significant postseason experience. Bregman, Swanson, Gausman.
Josh Timmers: They’re veterans. But that doesn’t help much against a Mason Miller fastball.
Thomas Smith: Miller is definitely a problem. If it’s a close game late that is a big Padres edge.
Al Yellon: As I mentioned earlier, the Cubs did hit Miller this year.
Sara Sanchez: They do hit velo pretty well, though. I forget who said it earlier but they HAVE gotten to the Miz and Miller at times this year, that’s worth something just to know you CAN do it.
Josh Timmers: That’s a solid point, Sara. It’s not just Miller, though. The Padres have Morejon and Matsui and a few other guys who can shorten the game.
Al Yellon: That is definitely one thing about this Cubs team. They are very good fastball hitters.
Jeff Brown: I don’t think the offense will lay an egg in the first game. But I would be wary of a surprise one-sided win like Game 1 of last year. It seems like momentum, but it can slingshot you back below your average performance, too.
Al Yellon: Obviously PCA and Bregman are the most important hitters on this team. Besides them, who do you think will break out and have a big series?
Jeff Brown: Busch.
Sara Sanchez: I’m not sure who will break out but I think they need two of Seiya, Busch, Happ and/or Dansby to peak at the right time.
Al Yellon: I’m going to go with Suzuki.
Thomas Smith: The Conforto/Taylor platoon.
Jeff Brown: Interesting, Thomas. I’m expecting Seiya to be there already.
Josh Timmers: Seiya is coming up big.
Al Yellon: How about the Cubs pen? Do we all think that Daniel Palencia is ready to close games again?
Sara Sanchez: I don’t think the Cubs really have a closer.
Josh Timmers: No. I’d prefer Zeferjahn in the ninth.
Thomas Smith: I think it’ll be Zeferjahn.
Al Yellon: Zeferjahn makes me nervous. Great stuff, but that command… yikes.
Jeff Brown: It’s to the point, Al, that it’s time to go to Palencia.
Sara Sanchez: I think they will mix and match Palencia and Zeferjahn with hopes and prayers.
Thomas Smith: I like Palencia for big spots earlier anyway.
Jeff Brown: I do think that the theory that you use your big-out guy to go in early — maybe that’s what Palencia will do. Slam the door on a rally in the sixth or seventh.
Josh Timmers: No, they really don’t have a closer. So it could be matchup based. I don’t think Zeferjahn comes in against lefties in the ninth.
Al Yellon: Counsell does like calling his guys “out getters” so I think mix and match could happen quite a bit.
Thomas Smith: I think he pretty much has to figure out chunks of hitters and go inning to inning. Possibly piggyback starters. Relievers early. Whatever works.
Josh Timmers: Rolison has been getting more and more critical outs. I don’t think he’ll be out there in the ninth, but he’s an important “out getter.”
Al Yellon: Rolison has been impressive this year, for sure. Anyone else in the pen who could turn out to be important?
Sara Sanchez: I think I’m most interested in how guys who AREN’T starting might play out of the bullpen, like Cabrera (if he’s around) or Imanaga.
Al Yellon: I doubt Cabrera will be on the postseason roster at all.
Thomas Smith: Civale. He’s been growing into his role.
Jeff Brown: I think Webb is very important. He needs regain most of what he was doing earlier. Civale — as long as he doesn’t have inherited runners, as he did of late.
Josh Timmers: Webb has been a mixed bag. Civale has looked good lately.
Sara Sanchez: I think the only way this comes together is if the offense shows up, the defense channels their inner Iceman (Top Gun reference) and the pitching gets pieced together in creative ways we haven’t really seen this season yet. Like if somehow Civale, Rea and Assad can get 2-3 innings worth of outs at a stretch, that’s very helpful.
Al Yellon: What about secret weapon Javier Assad?
Sara Sanchez: And I think Shōta is a real wild card here (no pun intended).
Jeff Brown: Forgot about Assad. He would obviously fill a role like I mentioned earlier with Holmes.
Josh Timmers: I guess I’ve been considering Assad as a bullpen pitcher all along.
Thomas Smith: Finding a spot for Shota could matter.
Al Yellon: I wouldn’t put Shōta into any inning that has Machado or Tatis batting, though. That’s just asking for a monster home run.
Thomas Smith: Agreed, Al. 13 pitchers for two games. Some can go twice. Don’t be afraid to use them.
Jeff Brown: Yeah, worry about Game 3 if there is one.
Al Yellon: And remember, that’s 10 relievers because you only need three starters in this series. Might even go with nine relievers to have an extra bench player.
Thomas Smith: Right. So 12 for two games and you hold back the Game 3 starter.
Josh Timmers: Don’t you have to have 13 pitchers and 13 hitters these days?
Al Yellon: I’m not sure if that applies to postseason rosters or not.
Sara Sanchez: I think you can’t have more than 13 pitchers but you can have less. One sec, let me look… Yeah, can’t have more than 13 pitchers in any round of the postseason.
Al Yellon: So if you can have less, then yes, use 12 and add Justin Dean.
Josh Timmers: OK. Then yeah, I’d go with 12 and add Justin Dean as a pinch runner.
Thomas Smith: How much faster is Dean than Shaw?
Al Yellon: A lot, actually.
Thomas Smith: Ok. I have flashbacks to the speed guy ending up batting.
Sara Sanchez: Pulling Anthony Rizzo for Terrance Gore in the Wild Card against the Rockies.
Josh Timmers: Justin Dean once stole 61 bases in a minor league season. That was 2024. The Dodgers added him as a pinch runner for the playoffs last year.
Al Yellon: Let’s try to sum things up now. Personally, I think the Cubs bats will get going and they’ll win this series in three games. How about all of you?
Thomas Smith: I think someone wins in two. Real bold.
Sara Sanchez: I think this series with the Padres is a coinflip and I wouldn’t be surprised if either team wins, so I might as well pick the Cubs in three games.
Josh Timmers: I don’t think we should treat the Padres like they’re some sort of powerhouse though. They’re a good but flawed team just like the Cubs. I want to be realistic. The Padres are the favorites. But they aren’t overwhelming favorites. This isn’t David vs. Goliath. This is more like a 52% to 48% situation.
Jeff Brown: I’m not as strongly confident as you are, Al. Things are pointing Padres, especially in a two-game series. Three games gives me more confidence (as in over 50%) in the Cubs advancing.
Josh Timmers: So yeah, let’s go Cubs in 3 because it feels better.
Sara Sanchez: A real ringing endorsement of this Cubs team from the BCB staff.
Jeff Brown: Hey, that was a better response than what I was expecting!
Josh Timmers: Look, PCA could win this series for the Cubs singlehandedly if he goes off.
Al Yellon: Bregman, too.
Sara Sanchez: Or Seiya. Or Dansby.
Al Yellon: Or Busch. See, the Cubs do have some big bats.
Sara Sanchez: I’m pretty sure Dansby won this series for the Cubs last year with his glove
Josh Timmers: I want Happ to go off just to shut up everyone who thinks he stinks.
Thomas Smith: So true, Josh.
Jeff Brown: Two games, three two-run homers in each for PCA?
Josh Timmers: The Cubs do not have a real weakness in the lineup. That’s their strength. The Padres pitchers will need to fight for every out.
Jeff Brown: With this team, it seems like, when you look over any week, someone different is the difference maker in that game. It’s not all PCA. That’s why this has been such an interesting season to watch.
Thomas Smith: Exactly, Jeff.
Al Yellon: Thanks everyone for doing this today! Go Cubs! And… maybe we can do this again later this week for the division series.
Josh Timmers: Go Cubs!
Jeff Brown: Go Cubs!
Thomas Smith: Eamus Catuli!
Sara Sanchez: Go Cubs!
