Last week, Mike Clay of ESPN dropped his annual Fantasy Football stats projections. This includes everything from snaps played, to touchdowns scored, and even score projections.
However, there was one golden number that caught the eyes of most Bears fans. Caleb Williams’ passing yardage set at 3,821.
You’re probably familiar with the stat by now, but in case you aren’t…here is why that number ruffled some feathers. The Bears remain the only team in NFL history to not have a player throw for more than
4,000 yards in a single season. This is all despite them being a much older franchise than most other teams.
In fact, Clay’s projection of 3,821 yards is more than 100 yards less than what he threw for in 2025. My first instinct is to assume this is a conservative estimate based on potential injuries — yet Clay lists Caleb as playing 17 games and throwing 528 passes, which is not that far off from his 568 in 2025.
If you look a little deeper, you will also notice that Clay still expects Caleb to complete only 60% of his passes, despite accuracy being a point of emphasis by Ben Johnson and staff.
I respect Clay for doing all of the work that it takes to put together these types of projections. Still, I feel that this feels like a dim outlook for a QB who is entering year 3 after a successful first year in Ben Johnson’s explosive system.
How many yards do you think Caleb Williams will throw for in 2026?
Personally, I think he throws for 4,150 yards, which may still be lower than what many others think. But if you look at last season, only four players surpassed that number, and six surpassed the 4,000-yard mark in the first place. It isn’t a given like it was a decade ago with running games being a higher point of emphasis in most offenses.
Still, 4,150 should be achievable in this offense with so many budding pass catchers for Caleb to throw to. Here is what I think the breakdown will be per player:
- Rome Odunze: 1,000 yards (62 yards per game)
- Luther Burden: 1,000 yards (59 yards per game)
- Colston Loveland: 950 yards (56 yards per game)
- Kalif Raymond: 350 yards (20 yards per game)
- D’Andre Swift: 300 yards (18 yards per game)
- Kyle Monangai: 200 yards (12 yards per game)
- Jahdae Walker: 200 yards (12 yards per game)
- Zavion Thomas: 100 yards (6 yards per game)
- Sam Roush and Others: 50 yards (3 yards per game)
It might be daring to suggest that the Bears have three players right around 1,000 yards for the season, but Odunze, Burden, and Loveland all have that capacity and all have the chance to take over games in different ways. Meanwhile, the Bears have a variety of players like Swift, Walker, and Thomas that can turn 5 yard passes into chunk plays.
This is all projection, no doubt, but I would be shocked if Caleb doesn’t at least exceed his passing total from a year ago, which puts him right around 4,000 yards. This passing game should compete for being one of the best in the league, and if the Bears want to compete for a championship, they better hope their passing attack takes a big step forward.
