Howdy and welcome back to Fun With Numbers, an advanced stats look at the Texas A&M Football team. We’re going to keep rolling onward and try to ignore all the rat poison and fancy numbers next to the team’s
name, and focus instead on the numbers we all know and love. Let’s get to it.
How’d We Do Last Week?
It was a slow start, but the Aggies put the game out of reach this time instead of letting their opponent hang around, like they did against Auburn a couple of weeks ago. Despite their inconsistencies, the Aggie offense was more efficient and more explosive, and despite a rough first quarter, the Aggie defense caused more havoc and eventually just suffocated the Bulldog offense.
What Do We Know?
The Aggies continue to climb the charts as they win ball games and round out into the team we’re likely to see the rest of the season. There is a lot to like and a lot of things that probably need to be fixed if the Aggies want to stretch this winning streak into the second half of the season. This week they host a Florida squad coming off their best (and second) win of the season. It’s been a tough schedule for the Gators so far in 2025 and it doesn’t get much easier, but if Billy Napier wants one more year in Gainesville he’s going to have to work some magic in the second half of the regular season. The Aggies are a 7.5-point favorite in Vegas, the SP+ likes the Ags by 10 points, and the FEI predicts something similar. Let’s take a closer look.
Aggie Offense vs Bulldog Defense
At this point, we’re seeing the Aggies bring along the run game that was so strong for them in 2024 to complement the passing game that has evolved with KC and Craver as the team’s top threats. The Aggies still aren’t particularly explosive on the ground, but that’s the last thing I’m worried about with an offense that can grind you down up front and hit some big plays over the top when needed. If the Aggies can get just a little more consistency from Marcel Reed and some of the other receiver options in the next 7 games, this offense is going to be very difficult to stop.
They’re facing a Gator defense that (at least statistically) mirrors Auburn’s defense from a couple of weeks ago. They’re not as strong up front as the Tigers, but the secondary has been far more disruptive so far this season, even if they share the weakness of being prone to giving up big plays. They’ve hauled in at least one interception in each of their last three games and had two last week against the Horns, as well as a season-high of six sacks against Arch Manning.
Aggie Defense vs Bulldog Offense
Much was made of some of the early season “struggles” that we saw from this Aggie Defense, but it’s quickly trending towards one of the top units Elko has fielded here at A&M, and that’s obviously saying something. They’re one of the best teams in the country at getting off the field on 3rd Downs, make life hell for opposing QBs, and the secondary continues to make great strides since the end of last season. Teams are still finding some success at times moving the ball on the ground, but overall, this squad is incredibly fun to watch as an Aggie fan.
The Gator offense has had its struggles this season. DJ Lagway has not exactly been the Heisman candidate that folks in Gainesville had hoped for, but they’ve found some good success running the ball with Jadan Baugh. Last week was their first game against an FBS opponent where they scored more than 20 points — and it was Lagway’s best game, QBR-wise, all season. It’s possible they’re turning a corner.
So What’s the Verdict?
This matchup feels far more likely to end up like Auburn than it does Mississippi State doesn’t it? Until this offense can put together 4 quarters of good football it’s always going to be concerning playing against a good defense who can help keep things close. This offensive line has done a good job in pass protection this season, so I don’t expect Reed to be pressured on 60% of snaps or anything outrageous like that. Hopefully he has the time he needs to make plays downfield. If the defense can contain the Florida ground game and limit the big, gashing runs, I’m not sure this is a Florida team that is built to survive frequent passing down situations (currently 93rd in Passing Down SR and 116th in Passing Down Explosiveness).
My Prediction: Like I said, this feels like one where the opponent can hang around with you, and I don’t like the idea of Lagway and freshman phenom Dallas Wilson having an opportunity to do some heartbreaking late in the game. But I’ll still pick the Ags to win, 21-13.
Then What?
Regardless of how this game shakes out, the Aggies will be entering the most difficult part of their schedule starting next week with a trip to Fayetteville. It’s less concerning than it was at the start of the season, but it kicks off a 3 game road stretch that features trips to Baton Rouge and Columbia, MO (a bye week is sandwiched between the two matchups with the Tigers). Based on current SP+ ratings, this is how the rest of the Aggie season could shake out.
I don’t have any more to add to that, but the Aggies could be favored by a touchdown or more in 2 of those games, slight road dogs in 2 of them, and potentially a pick ‘em to end the season in Austin. A collapse is on the table, sure. It always is. But man, you want to talk about a year where your own fate is right there for the taking…
Trust me, I’m not getting ahead of myself. I drew this up at the beginning of the year, and it’s still true.
But also, it’s more fun to believe… isn’t it?
Final Notes
Thanks for coming back this week, we’ll see you next week to talk about Petrino and the Pigs.
- Bcftoys.com for Brian Fremeau’s FEI data and other fun projects from him.
- ESPN.com is the home for all of Bill Connelly’s SP+ info (as well as the FPI rankings). You’ll need to subscribe to ESPN+ for most of his stuff these days.
- CollegeFootballData.com is a great site for data and charts that you can download and play with on your own time, in case Fun With Numbers isn’t filling that statistical void in your life. Most of my data comes from here.
- And finally my blog can be found here, in case you’re not getting enough of my writing.
