Not even 20% three-point shooting and 33 allowed free throw attempts could prevent the Michigan Wolverines from providing another laugher, as No. 24 USC was the latest team to fall by 30 at the hands of this juggernaut. Michigan now gets four straight games against teams that are currently outside the top 40 per Kenpom, starting with the Penn State Nittany Lions on Tuesday evening.
Penn State is the worst remaining team on the schedule, and the Big Ten scheduling algorithm chose this as a two-play,
with the return contest in Ann Arbor next month. For now, the Wolverines just need to keep doing what they are doing and avoid any embarrassing slipups. Anything other than another blowout would be a pretty disappointing outcome from this one.
No. 2 Michigan (13-0, 3-0) at Penn State (9-5, 0-3)
Date & Time: Tuesday, Jan. 6, 7 p.m. ET
Location: Bryce Jordan Center, University Park, PA
TV/Streaming: FS1
Over the past three seasons, Michigan is just 2-3 against Penn State, with only one of those games coming at the Bryce Jordan Center. Last year’s battle at Crisler was one of those narrow escapes with the teams tied at halftime and the visitors up by five with 1:50 remaining. However, the Wolverines scored the final nine points, with Tre Donaldson recording the final seven, to stave off the upset.
Two Stats to Watch
Penn State eFG Rate: 55.4% (307th)
The Nittany Lions’ defense is not great. Teams can score inside and out against them, and while they have faced just five High Major opponents so far, the results have not looked promising in those contests. Meanwhile, Michigan boasts the No. 1 effective field goal rate in the entire nation (and No. 5 offense), which speaks to the team’s ability to lean on good shots — and hit them.
If there was one reason for optimism for the home team, it would be that two of those five games against top competition did result in poor three-point shooting for Penn State’s opponents, including a 22% mark from Illinois on Saturday. Michigan is coming off its own struggles from behind the arc, and that could be an area where Mike Rhoades feels like his team can find an advantage.
Unfortunately, the Wolverines can win in plenty of other ways, and the Nittany Lions have allowed 57.6% of twos to go in against High Majors. The visitors really do not need many threes to connect to win comfortably, but look out if the long-ball regresses to the mean for both teams; that would be a recipe for getting back over the 100-point threshold.
Penn State Freshmen Production: 33.9 PPG
Three of Penn State’s four highest minutes leaders are freshmen: Kayden Mingo, Melih Tunca, and Ivan Juric. All three of these rookies are amongst the top five in scoring, and this trio represents the (hopefully brighter) future for the Nittany Lions after a lone NCAA Tournament appearance in the last 15 years. If Rhodes is going to turn this program around, it will hinge on this class.
Tunca (139th on the 247 Composite) and Juric (154th) were nice international pulls that are clearly contributing right away, but the real gem is Mingo, who has NBA potential and was ranked 37th-overall in his class. Right now he leads the team in points (14.9), rebounds (3.9), assists (4.5), steals (2.5), and usage (26.0%), but has struggled from deep (23.5%).
Defending dynamic guards is essential for any team and it will be fun to see how Michigan handles the confident freshman. Mingo loves to get to the hoop, which is an obvious challenge for anyone against this defense. If he fails to beat Aday Mara and Morez Johnson in the paint, it will be interesting to see if he pivots to mid-range jumpers, which he does take with some frequency but far less efficiency. Still, he has the shooting stroke to hit from anywhere, and maybe he steps up in his biggest matchup to date.
