Another year, another opening game win in the NCAA Tournament for Nate Oats and the Alabama Crimson Tide, as the guys battled back from an early deficit to roll Hofstra 90-70 on Friday afternoon. In fact, the win for Oats moved him into a tie with the great Wimp Sanderson for most NCAA Tournament victories in Alabama history. I say it all the time, but these are the good ole days, folks, enjoy them!
Aden Holloway – as expected – did not play for the Tide in the First Round, and I have a hard time
believing that we’ll be seeing him again this season. In his absence, Labaron Philon really carried the load for Alabama from an offensive standpoint, initiating the offense more often than not. If the Tide wants to make a deep run in the tournament, a secondary creator/ballhandler is going to have to emerge. Latrell Wrightsell, to his credit, did attack more off of the dribble in the game against Hofstra than he normally does, and Amari Allen brought the ball up the court a decent bit, but neither was highly effective at creating or initiating the offense.
Next up for the Tide is a date with the 5th-seeded Texas Tech Red Raiders, who shot the lights out against Akron in a 91-71 win over the Zips in their tournament opener.
How to Watch
What: #4 seed Alabama Crimson Tide (24-9, 13-5 SEC) vs #5 seed Texas Tech Red Raiders (23-10, 12-6 Big 12)
Where: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL
When: 8:45 PM CDT
TV: TBS
Line: Texas Tech -1.5 (According to FanDuel, although odds have changed several times now)
There should be absolute fireworks in Tampa on Sunday night when these two teams get together. But tonight’s showdown between Alabama and Texas Tech is almost as much about who isn’t playing as much as who is. We’ve discussed Aden Holloway’s situation already, but Tech’s absence is significantly worse. JT Toppin – Texas Tech’s superstar big man and First Team All American – tore his ACL last month and was lost for the season. As a fan of college basketball as a whole, I was honestly sick about it. Toppin is a beast of a player, and Red Raiders coach Grant McCasland had done a great job constructing his roster by surrounding the dominant post with a plethora of shooters. It was an elite combo. With Toppin, Texas Tech was one of my favorites to win the whole thing this year.
Alas – though fortunately for Alabama – it was not meant to be for Toppin and Tech. Major credit to McCasland and their team for sticking together and still playing high-level basketball, though. As mentioned, this team still has a lot of talent in the backcourt, which has really shined recently. Christian Anderson is one of the best guards in the country, capable of both scoring (18.9 PPG on 48.0%/42.3%/80.2%) and assisting (7.5 APG on 35.6% AST%) at an elite level. Donovan Atwell is another very good guard, who is even more efficient than Anderson in the scoring department (13.5 PPG on 46.3%/45.9%/82.5%) and is one of the very best in college hoops in taking care of the basketball (5.5% TO% – 6th best in the nation).
Three Keys to Victory
- Push the Pace and Wear Them Down. Texas Tech was already a pretty thin team depth-wise before Toppin’s injury. Since then, the Red Raiders have really only gone about 7-deep, and that’s despite playing their two replacement big men pretty evenly split minutes at the five. McCasland’s team is 253rd in the country in tempo, in large part because they are 356th in Bench Minutes. If Alabama can control the pace of this game, wear Tech out, and maybe even get some of these guards into foul trouble, it will go a long way in securing a victory tonight.
- Win the Three-Point War. This game is going to be electric, as two of the best, most intentional three-point shooting teams in all of basketball clash in Tampa tonight. Texas Tech is arguably the best shooting team in the country, though they technically rank 3rd in 3P%. They are also 27th in 3PA/FGA, so they like to let it fly as much as Nate Oats and Alabama do. Just about every non-big man for Tech can shoot it with great confidence. The Red Raiders shot 11/20 from beyond the arc in their win over Akron. People often complain that Nate Oats’ Alabama teams “live and die by the three”, but Texas Tech actually embodies that this year. They only get 42.6% of their points from two-point range and just 14.6% from the free throw line. They are 350th in the country in Free Throw Rate. There is really no reason why Alabama shouldn’t be playing out on shooters and blitzing or hedging screens all night. If the Tide can outpace Texas Tech from the perimeter, it’ll be tough for the Red Raiders to overcome.
- Clean Up the Glass. Who would’ve thought Alabama would have an advantage on the boards in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament this year? Ever since Toppin’s injury, Texas Tech has gotten abused on the glass. Well, unless they are playing a MAC team. Luke Bamgboye and Josiah Moseley – Toppin’s replacements – just aren’t great players. Aiden Sherrill has had issues at times being strong on the boards, but he’s easily the best rebounder that will be on the court tonight, and as long as Amari Allen and Taylor Bol Bowen keep showing up with great effort, Alabama should come away with a strong rebounding margin in this one.
Get ready for some fireworks tonight, folks. This is going to be an electrifying game between these two potent offenses. I can’t stress the importance of defending the perimeter in this one enough. If Alabama can flex their superior size and athleticism, control the tempo of the game, chase shooters off of the three-point line, and hit the boards, the Tide should be on their way to yet another Sweet Sixteen appearance under Nate Oats. However, money has been coming in on Texas Tech for a reason – they really do have fantastic guard play. This one could go either way.
Hope for the Best.
