The 2026 Palm Beach Cardinals had five teenage prospects post a wRC+ above 100 while taking 100+ plate appearances: Miguel Hernandez, Sebastian Dos Santos, Yairo Padilla, Ryan Mitchell, and Alexander Frias. That seems pretty good! There were only 14 players total that met these criteria in the ten-team Florida State League.
In 2021, the FSL was loaded with prospects. There were 18 teenagers in the Low-A league to accrue at least 100 plate appearances. The wRC+ leaderboard for that season has some
names you will recognize.
- Jordan Walker, 19, 208 wRC+
- Orelvis Martinez, 19, 149 wRC+
- Colt Keith, 19, 143 wRC+
- Masyn Winn, 19, 115 wRC+
- Jasson Dominguez, 18, 105 wRC+
- Elly De La Cruz, 19, 105 wRC+
- Dariel Lopez, 19, 101 wRC+
- Maikol Escotto, 19, 99 wRC+
- Victor Mesa Jr., 19, 95 wRC+
Fast-forward to the present day, and the six bolded players have a Steamer-projected wRC+ of 95 or better heading into next year. All except Winn have a projection of 106 or better. From this quick snapshot, I can conclude that the Cardinals should get an MVP candidate and a couple of All-Stars out of their current group of teenage prospects!
2021 was also the first year that Statcast data was publicly available in the FSL. I thought it would be interesting to compare the underlying metrics of the 2021 class with the Cardinals’ young guns of today. I do want to emphasize that all the numbers we are looking at are super small sample sizes and groups of players. I am not trying to force conclusions by looking at this data, but I do think it is some interesting context to consider.
Before we get to the comparison with our current Cardinals prospects, let’s see if any metrics jump out as being especially important in predicting future success. I separated the 2021 class into two groups, the Hits (Walker, Keith, Winn, Dominguez, De La Cruz, Mesa Jr.) and the Busts (the 12 teenagers who have not made it yet). Here are the average metrics for each bucket.
Not surprisingly, the players who ended up being good were better at 18 and 19 than their counterparts. Masyn Winn was the only player from the “Hit” group to post an average exit velocity below 86.6 mph. In this small sample size, max EV was actually even more important with all six Hits posting max EVs of 109.8 mph or higher. Contact% and Zcontact% were fairly good indicators as well. Chase% was actually better for the Busts thanks to some wild early swinging from a trio of future Hits.
And here is how the Cardinals prospects stacked up.
A couple of disclaimers when looking at the data for the Cardinals prospects. Padilla, Frias, and Hernandez each had fewer than 130 plate appearances, so take their metrics with a spoonful of salt. The other obvious difference is that the 2021 class of Hits only had one 18-year-old while the Cardinals group included three.
Let’s run through each Cardinals prospect and see how they compare to the 2021 Hits, Busts, and one just-for-fun comp from the Hit group.
Ryan Mitchell, OF
Mitchell’s metrics aren’t great and fit in comfortably with the Bust cohort. One silver lining is that he was hitting with much more authority earlier in the year before trailing off in July and August (average EV from 87.2 to 81.9). It is reasonable to assume that the grind of his first pro season wore him out in the second half. Hopefully he comes to camp with some added strength. His contact and discipline metrics would look fine for a power hitter, but won’t be playable unless he adds some serious pop.
Yairo Padilla, SS
Padilla checked in with only 128 plate appearances, but you can see from his Statcast metrics why the Cardinals are so high on him. The concern with Padilla is that he struggles to hit the ball in the air. His FSL groundball rate was a terrifying 64%. For reference, Jordan Walker was at 55% in his FSL stint. Padilla will be a good test for the Cardinals player development group, but this will require him staying on the field. He has played in only 35, 38, and 27 games the last three seasons.
Alexander Frias, OF
Frias only had 110 plate appearances with the Cardinals. The comparison to De La Cruz would look better if we had Frias’ data from his time with the Brewers. He hit a ball 117 mph while in the complex league and carried a 77.7% contact rate at the Brewers’ Low-A affiliate. Frias will, presumably, start 2027 in Palm Beach and hopefully will start bringing more of his prodigious power into game action.
Miguel Hernandez, SS
Hernandez blitzed the FSL in his 102 plate appearances to the tune of 163 wRC+. His underlying metrics do not jump off the page, but Hernandez is the youngest player in our cohort (turned 18 on June 2). He was listed at 6’0″ and just 145 pounds when he signed, but Brian Walton at The Cardinal Nation now has him up to 165 pounds. Similar to Dos Santos, how he develops physically will go a long way to determining his ultimate ceiling. It is encouraging to see he has already hit a solid 108.8 mph max EV.
Sebastian Dos Santos, SS
Dos Santos had 255 plate appearances in Low-A, so he has a decent sample size. Not captured in this table is the fact that Dos Santos has an elite ability to drive the ball in the air to his pull side. The Cardinal Nation lists Dos Santos at 6’0″ and 173 pounds, up from his weight at signing of 140 pounds. Dos Santos is a switch hitter and had a bit more success, both from a production and underlying metrics perspective, from the left side.
The Dos Santos/Keith comp is about as close as I am going to get on any of these from a metrics perspective. If Dos Santos can turn into a better defensive version of Keith, that would be a heck of a player. Still, I am holding out hope that Dos Santos can get to another gear in his power as he fills out and matures.
What next?
So, what do we need to see next season? All six of the 2021 Hits advanced a level in 2022, and four of the six reached Double-A. Even Dominguez, the lone 18-year-old, repeated Low-A, cleaned up his plate approach, and finished the year in Double-A. The current cadre of Cardinals prospects is young, but to stay on pace with their 2021 forefathers, they will need to advance quickly. I will be watching to see if Mitchell comes to camp with added muscle, if Dos Santos and Hernandez can add a few ticks of EV thump, and if Padilla and Frias can improve their batted-ball quality.
