The Starter
Boston acquired Willson “Don’t Forget The Second L” Contreras in late December from the St. Louis Cardinals, in exchange for SP Hunter Dobbins and pitching prospects Yhoiker Fajardo and Blake Aita. A catcher for the first nine years of his career with the Cubs and Cardinals, Contreras shifted to first base a year ago, playing 120 games at the position to go with 15 at designated hitter.
Contreras is expected to provide a level of stability, both offensively and defensively, that the first base position
has not had in years. Over the past six years, here is a list of the leaders in games played at first base. Note that only two of those six players have had a positive WAR on Baseball Reference:
- 2020 (short season): Michael Chavis: 42 games (21 starts at 1B), .212 BA, .636 OPS, -0.8 bWAR
- 2021: Bobby Dalbec: 133 games (111 starts at 1B), .240 BA, .792 OPS, 0.3 bWAR
- 2022: Bobby Dalbec: 117 games (64 starts at 1B), .215 BA, .652 OPS, -0.7 bWAR
- (Also included: “The Franchy Cordero Experience” for 47 starts at 1B, and 8 errors)
- 2023: Triston Casas: 132 games (115 starts at 1B), .263 BA, .856 OPS, 2.2 bWAR
- 2024: Dominic Smith: 84 games (66 starts at 1B), .237 BA, .706 OPS, 0.0 bWAR
- 2025: Abraham Toro: 77 games (57 starts at 1B), .239 BA, .659 OPS, -0.2 WAR
With the exception of Casas’s 2023 season, it’s been an ugly scene for quite some time now. Fortunately, when he’s been on the field, Contreras has been a model of consistency. The hope is that moving to first base will keep him available, as it did for most of last season. In his four seasons since turning 30, Contreras has had an OPS between .791 and .848 in each season, a wRC+ between 124 and 141 in each season, and between 20 and 22 home runs in the three full seasons that he played. Contreras played just 84 games in 2024, due to a broken arm and then a broken finger (no wonder he stopped catching), but he hit 15 home runs in that limited time.
In his age-33 season last year, Contreras was in the top-20 percentile in Barrel % and Hard Hit%, as well as the top-5 percentile in Bat Speed, a great sign for an aging hitter, and likely why the Red Sox felt comfortable committing to him for two seasons. Additionally, his spray chart shows that the Monster in left should be inviting for Contreras to build on his 52 extra-base hits (31 doubles) from a year ago:
He handled the move to first base masterfully, with a +6 in Outs Above Average (90th percentile), and still maintains a 76th percentile Arm Strength. Contreras hasn’t ruled out the possibility of catching, if needed in a pinch, but we shouldn’t expect to see much of that. Roster Resource projects Contreras to hit in the cleanup spot, with the protection of Wilyer Abreu hitting behind him against right-handers. It would be great to see Contreras get his walk rate back up to the career average of 9.8%, after it dropped to 7.8% a year ago, but his 23 HBPs (2nd in NL) do not factor into that rate.
Willson Contreras has not had a bWAR season of less than 2.5 since his rookie year (2020 excluded), and if he can keep that trend going while staying healthy, we should finally see this position be less of a worry in 2026.
The Injured
Triston Casas
Of course, the reason that Boston needs some stability at first base is that after the 2023 season from Triston Casas, which was expected to be a springboard to an excellent career, he has hit some snags. Casas missed 118 days in 2024 with an injury to his ribs, and then ruptured his patellar tendon on May 2nd of last year, ending his season and leading to a lengthy recovery. When on the field for 92 games over those two seasons, Casas slashed .222/.318/.412 with a 29.3 K% and a 100 wRC+.
Casas has three seasons remaining in Boston before reaching free agency, and surely will want 2026 to be a season in which he stays on the field once he returns from this devastating knee injury. Boston, similarly, would love to see this if there is any chance of regaining some trade value. Casas has looked to be moving well in defensive drills during spring training, and the reports on his return timeline have been more optimistic in recent weeks. If Casas is back by May 1st, it would be a win for everyone, but will make the designated hitter position even more crowded than it is today.
Romy Gonzalez
Unlikely to be ready for Opening Day, Gonzalez played 58 games at first base a season ago, 42 at second base, and 2 games at third base. He feasted on left-handed pitching, an area in which the team could struggle, which I outlined recently. Never mind the lefties, Romy slashed .305/.343/.483 against all pitchers a season ago, with his 341 plate appearances being no small sample size. My worries are that a shoulder injury suffered last September is still lingering with Gonzalez, but, like Casas, if he can make it back during the first half of the season, he provides great insurance at the position.
Other Options
“The Bench” should be Triston Casas and Romy Gonzalez once they get healthy. In the meantime, two players who will be previewed more significantly at other positions should at least be mentioned here until the others return. Andruw Monasterio has played 36 innings at first base in his two seasons with Milwaukee, despite never making an appearance there in the minor leagues. Per Statcast, he’s had five balls hit to him and made all of the plays. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has played (checks notes) zero innings at first base over 920 Major League Baseball games, but he says he’s willing to try! From The Boston Globe on Sunday:
“I’ve played a lot of second base so I’m comfortable on that side of the field,” Kiner-Falefa said. “It’s just getting the footwork down. I hope I get a chance to play there. It would be fun to say I played all nine positions once my career is over.”
Minor League Depth
Nick Sogard appeared in 30 games a year ago with the Red Sox, hitting .260 in 96 at-bats, and yet the position he spent the most time at was at first base (12 games, 11 starts). Sogard also started both Game 1 and Game 2 of the Wild Card series at second base, going 2-for-6 with a double. At 28 years of age, Sogard is almost assured to have a stint, or three, with the big club in 2026, and it can’t be ruled out that he’s on the Opening Day roster.
Nathan Hickey played 72 games at first base for Worcester a year ago. He slashed .234/.325/.408, with 17 home runs and 75 RBI. The 26-year-old would need to make some significant strides in 2026 to be in consideration for a call-up.
Fangraphs Projections
Using The BATX projections, here is the 50th percentile outcome expected from Red Sox first basemen this year. Of course, the 1300+ plate appearances below will not all be at first base, as a healthy Gonzalez would mix in at second base, Casas (and even Contreras) should see some time at DH, and Monasterio and Kiner-Falefa are only first basemen in case of emergency.
Divisional Ranking
The first base position in the AL East is an absolute gauntlet. Being ranked “last” on this list is no slight whatsoever, but the rankings must be done.
- Vladimir Guerrero (TOR): Sometimes it takes a while for him to get going, but at the end of the season, the numbers are always there. The most games that Vlad has missed in a season is six. Guerrero had a 4.6 bWAR season in 2025, followed by an other-worldly postseason with eight home runs, a 241 wRC+, and a 1.289 OPS.
- Pete Alonso (BAL): Speaking of always-available players, Alonso has never missed more than ten games in his seven-year career, and has played all 162 in each of the past two seasons. He is coming off arguably his best season since his 53-homer rookie year, with his batting average skyrocketing to .272 in a contract year, while knocked in 126 runs with 38 homers. Boston offered Alonso a reportedly laughable three-year deal before he signed with the Orioles for 5-years and $155M.
- Willson Contreras (BOS): Depending on whom you ask, different fanbases could quibble with the 3 through 5 rankings in this list (and I’m sure Yankee fans would be the loudest), but Contreras has been a consistent bat and glove for a full decade now. And with a career-high 563 plate appearances in 2025, he could be in the lineup more than ever after moving off of catcher. The Green Monster should be inviting for Contreras’ bat, both in the doubles and the home run categories. He has never reached 25 home runs in a season, and it’s reasonable to think he could do so this season.
- Ben Rice (NYY): One of the biggest breakout players of last season, Rice rotated between first base, catcher, and designated hitter to put up a 2.3 bWAR season with 26 bombs and a 133 wRC+. The big question in 2026 will be if Rice can handle lefties, after he was left out of the lineup in Game One of the playoff series against Boston last fall. Rice hit .208 with a 28 K% against southpaws compared to a .269 average with 16% strikeouts against righties a year ago.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB): With Yandy Diaz playing just 37 games at first a year ago, and trending towards a full-time DH, the torch has been handed to Aranda, who is entering his age-28 season. Aranda hit .316 in the confines of Steinbrenner Field a year ago, which would have been 2nd in the American League if he qualified for the batting title. Unfortunately, Aranda fractured his left wrist and missed the final two months of the season, save for a three-game appearance in the final series. His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was .409, which was 33 points higher than any player in all of baseball, with a minimum of 400 plate appearances. With a .222 career batting average entering last season, some regression is likely coming for Aranda as he returns to The Trop in 2026.
