Well, here we are. It’s the middle of December, and the Detroit Lions’ playoff hopes are roughly 35 percent, depending on where you look. The biggest thing the team must do in these final three weeks is
win out, but that’s easier said than done. Detroit needs a little help along the way, but when it comes to what they need to do, it starts with beating the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Steelers are in a similar situation, but more so for their division. They are fighting with the Baltimore Ravens for a divisional title that, if they don’t win, likely pushes them out of the playoffs overall. The Steelers have had a roller coaster season with questions at multiple spots, but Mike Tomlin has them on the verge of yet another winning season.
Let’s take a deeper look at the Steelers in my Week 16 scouting report.
Pittsburgh Steelers
2025 season thus far (8-6)
Week 1: Defeated the New York Jets 34-32
Week 2: Lost to the Seattle Seahawks 31-17
Week 3: Defeated the New England Patriots 21-14
Week 4: Defeated the Minnesota Vikings 24-21
Week 5: BYE
Week 6: Defeated the Cleveland Browns 23-9
Week 7: Lost to the Cincinnati Bengals 33-3
Week 8: Lost to the Green Bay Packers 35-25
Week 9: Defeated the Indianapolis Colts 27-20
Week 10: Lost to the Los Angeles Chargers 25-10
Week 11: Defeated the Cincinnati Bengals 34-12
Week 12: Lost to the Chicago Bears 31-28
Week 13: Lost to the Buffalo Bills 26-7
Week 14: Defeated the Baltimore Ravens 27-22
Week 15: Defeated the Miami Dolphins 28-15
Stats:
- 13th in points scored, 18th in points allowed
- 13th in DVOA
- 16th in offensive DVOA (23rd in pass DVOA, 12th in run DVOA)
- 12th in defensive DVOA (11th pass DVOA, 16th in run DVOA)
- 17th in special teams DVOA
It seems wherever quarterback Aaron Rodgers goes, problems turn up. In Green Bay, it was mostly good, but the last few years there, we saw him disgruntled with management, leading him to being traded. He then went to the New York Jets, where he got injured on the first drive of the 2023 season, forcing him to miss the entire year. His return in 2024 with the Jets wasn’t well either, as he struggled coming off the injury and would leave the Jets on bad terms.
Rodgers eventually ended up with the Pittsburgh Steelers, and people called it a great pairing that would be good for both sides. It started well, the Steelers were 4-1, but since then, the team has gone 3-5. Their head coach, Mike Tomlin, is being questioned about whether he should return as the head coach in 2026, despite having 21 straight seasons with a .500 record or better. Once again, wherever Rodgers seems to go, problems arise.
When it comes to the offense, Rodgers is still not playing as well as last year, and 2024 wasn’t his best season ever. He’s 20th in passing yards (2,594), tied for 10th in touchdowns (22), and tied for 15th in most interceptions with seven. The Steelers traded away their top wide receiver, George Pickens, replacing him with D.K. Metcalf, who has been good this season with 808 yards (22nd) with six touchdowns on 55 catches. Rodgers hasn’t had much luck elsewhere as tight end Pat Freiermuth has found the end zone four times with 31 catches for 352 yards.
The running game for Pittsburgh hasn’t been much of a factor, as starting running back Jaylen Warren is 23rd in the league in yards (685) with only four rushing touchdowns. The backup Kenneth Gainwell also has four touchdowns on 93 of his carries, but has gained 451 yards on the ground.
The defense is once again led by linebacker T.J. Watt, who is on a downish year, leading the team in sacks with only seven, but is tied for first in forced fumbles with three. The good news is that while Watt isn’t dominating, he’s getting help elsewhere as linebackers Nick Herbig and Alex Highsmith each have 6.5 sacks. The secondary has seen players go in and out due to injuries or getting cut, but cornerback Jalen Ramsey has been a bright spot with six pass deflections and an interception.
Injury notes
Key players ruled out: S DeShon Elliott (IR), OT Broderick Jones Jr. (IR), DE Isaiahh Loudermilk (IR)
Key players to monitor: CB James Pierre (calf), OL Andrus Peat (concussion), LB T.J. Watt (lung), DT Derrick Harmon (knee), RB Jaylen Warren (illness), LG Isaac Seumalo (triceps), LB Nick Herbig (hamstring)
While the Steelers’ injury notes seem minor, they are missing some key players. The defense is without starting safety DeShon Elliott for the season, along with defensive end Isaiahh Loudermilk, and starting left tackle Broderick Jones could return this season, but not until after the Lions game.
When it comes to players who could miss this week’s game, the Steelers had a strange incident last week that forced Watt out with a lung issue. It’s unclear if he will need to miss more time. Cornerback James Pierre and offensive lineman Andrus Peat sat last game and didn’t practice all last week due to their injuries, so if they can see an uptick in production, they could return to the field.
Defensive tackle Derrick Harmon was limited in one practice last week and missed Week 15, but Tomlin expects him to return against Detroit. Warren popped up on the injury report in Week 15 on game night with an illness, but since he played, I would believe he plays next week.
During Week 15, the Steelers saw two players leave games and not return with injuries: starting left guard Isaac Seumalo and linebacker Nick Herbig. Their status is unclear, but if the Steelers are without their best defensive player in Watt and another contributor in the pass rush in Herbig, that changes the game.
Biggest strength: Pass rush
Despite Watt having a down year, this Steelers defense is still causing problems for opposing offensive lines. With offenses focusing on Watt as the main guy to stop, others are seeing more one-on-one matchups and winning them to get to the quarterback. I mentioned earlier how Herbig and Highsmith each have 6.5 sacks; that is an example of how complementing a great pass rusher can have others take advantage of the matchups they’re given.
The Steelers defense is tied for fifth in the league in sacks with 40, and according to PFF, has an 83.1 grade for its pass rush. While Watt is the usual suspect of being at the top of the list, it’s actually Herbig who has the best pass rush grade per PFF at 85.4. Linebacker Malik Harrison is behind him at 84.6 and veteran defensive tackle Cameron Heyward next at 82.3. At 36 years old, Heyward is still a helpful contributor on the defense, with 62 tackles and 2.5 sacks.
Other names that have seen the opposing quarterback often are defensive tackle Keeanu Benton, who has 4.5 sacks, Harmon with 2.0, and veteran cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who has 3.0. This defense can get a pass rush from any level of defender it needs, which can make their opponents struggle with blocking assignments and schemes. If the Steelers can get to the quarterback, they often can win the game. They are 6-3 when they record two or more sacks.
Biggest weakness: Running attack
While the passing game hasn’t had the success people envisioned under Rodgers, what has been a bigger swing and a miss is the running game. The Steelers have 1,295 rushing yards, the fifth-fewest in the NFL. They’re also tied for fifth in lowest yards per carry at 3.9. Warren won the starting job after the team moved on from Najee Harris, and while he’s tied a career-high in touchdowns at four, that isn’t enough to be a top running back in the NFL.
Defenses are forcing the Steelers to beat them through the air and taking away the run game. The Steelers’ run blocking hasn’t been helpful either, ranked 16th according to PFF with a 65.1 grade. With defenses putting more pressure on that offensive line, they’re stopping the run game from even starting. Rodgers needs a good running game to balance him out at this point in his career, and with the team struggling to pass, it’s bleeding into the running game being ineffective.
Key matchup: Lions secondary vs. Steelers wide receivers
Coming off the second-most passing yards allowed in the loss to the Los Angeles Rams (368), the Lions’ secondary must see improvement this week against Pittsburgh. With Rodgers still not playing at his best level and somewhat dealing with a wrist injury, the back four for Detroit needs to have a good game on Sunday. Metcalf can be slowed down with double teams, and besides him, they don’t have much depth to worry about.
The last time the Lions faced a thinly talented wide receiver room, they let the New York Giants, led by quarterback Jameis Winston, throw for 395 yards. Wide receiver WanDale Robinson had a career game (156 yards, 1 TD) while covered by cornerback Amik Robertson. The Lions can’t overlook Pittsburgh, and if the pass rush can get home, it’ll only make the secondary’s job that much easier.
If the weight falls on them in the end, they’ll need to make a play or two and force Pittsburgh to be aggressive and go for it on fourth downs, or win by forcing a punt. Turnovers will be crucial in this game, and if the defense can pick off Rodgers at least once, it could be enough to overcome the Steelers on Sunday afternoon.
Vegas line for Sunday: Lions favored by 6.5
