The Steelers enjoyed an early bye in Week 5 after the team’s best win of the season against the Vikings in Ireland. And despite not playing a down on Sunday, Pittsburgh emerged as the biggest winner in the AFC North following losses by the Ravens, Bengals, and Browns, giving the black and gold a strong lead over the division through the first quarter of the season.
This week, Read & React will tackle the question of whether the Steelers really can hold onto their spot atop the AFC North with their first
two divisional games looming. And with Alex Highsmith back at practice, do the Steelers suddenly have a decision to make at outside linebacker?
While the Steelers were on bye, the rest of the AFC North lost in Week 5. How likely are the Steelers to win the division after this start?
RP: The Steelers’ first four games haven’t exactly gone smoothly, and yet somehow they have once again found themselves in prime position to win the division.
If you want to put an actual number to it, the folks over on the website Playoff Status currently have Pittsburgh at a 65% chance of winning the division. They are also tied for the highest probability (22%) of landing the number one seed in the AFC.
Sounds pretty good, right? And yet…
Does it really feel like the Steelers are the clear No. 1 seed in the AFC? Probably not, right? The probability rates are fun to track, but they lose some of their predictive punching power when you consider that the team tied with the Steelers for the best odds of gaining the top seed is the Jaguars.
You know. The team putting this on display in front of a national audience.
The Steelers still have a lot to prove to themselves, the fanbase, and the rest of the NFL. That isn’t a bad thing, but I’d be lying if I didn’t acknowledge having some strong skepticism. The Steelers have had plenty of seasons recently that started well in the win-loss column, but saw the Steelers fade late in the season when schedules and conditions often get harder.
Pittsburgh’s remaining schedule isn’t as brutal as the final month last year was, but it still is no cake walk. The Steelers are about to face the Ohio teams in a four-day span. And as down as both those teams look, the Steelers are in no position to look past them.
No, not even the Browns.
The rest of the season doesn’t get any easier.
Green Bay has looked dangerous. The Colts – who beat the Steelers last season – have looked much better than anyone was anticipating. The Chargers can hang with any team as long as Justin Herbert is healthy. The Bears look much improved under new leadership. The Bills and Lions are Super Bowl contenders. And the Ravens have looked awful, but should have Lamar Jackson back when the Steelers face them, and we watched them turn around a struggling defense in the second half of the season just a year ago.
Miami is the only team that I find myself thinking a scenario where the Steelers lose is unfathomable. But then again, l felt that way about Arizona and New England in 2023, and we all know how that turned out. It’s the NFL; there are no gimmes.
I said before the season that I believed the Steelers could win 10-11 games this year. And I still do. But with only a 2.5-game lead on the Ravens and three full months of games to go, I’m certainly not ready to count them out yet.
The Steelers have plenty of areas where they can improve, and they are dealing with some key injuries of their own. I like their chances to win the division, but let’s not pop any champagne just yet.
RB: I see this situation similarly to Ryan. Pittsburgh is in a great spot right now, but it’s just too early to tell. Last week in a “Let’s talk Steelers,” I still had the Ravens as my AFC North favorites.
But after Baltimore was embarrassed in a 44-10 loss to the struggling Texans in Week 5 (The Ravens were down several elite starters, including Lamar Jackson, but still…), the Steelers have far and away the most momentum in the entire division.
As a result, is Pittsburgh my new AFC North favorite? I’ve seen enough full NFL seasons to know that making such a bold declaration after a handful of games is fool’s gold. I still remember when the Steelers looked like borderline contenders midseason last year before imploding down the stretch.
But I can’t really favor the Ravens anymore. I mean, they’re currently in contention for a top-five pick. I think the division crown will be a toss-up, and that Week 18 matchup between Baltimore and Pittsburgh is looking like it might be the deciding factor.
I still feel the same way about the Steelers that I have for a while. They’re on track for a winning record – I might bump my 10-win prediction up to 11 following a result I didn’t expect against the Vikings – and a playoff spot. But as Ryan points out, there are still plenty of tough matchups remaining on the schedule that could fill up the “L” column quickly and erase a division lead.
In short, my newfound Steelers AFC North optimism has more to do with Baltimore’s current performance than Pittsburgh’s. The Steelers looked better than I expected against Minnesota, but there’s still a lot to prove.
There’s been a lot of chatter among the fanbase regarding Nick Herbig’s performance during Alex Highsmith’s absence. With Highsmith healthy enough to return to practice, where do you fall on the Herbig-Highsmith debate?
RB: Personally, I think this should be a bit less of a discussion point than it has been recently, simply because the Pittsburgh defense needs three high-quality outside linebackers to reach its full potential in the first place.
Beyond just in-game rotations, the Steelers have struggled to keep all of them healthy at once. Having three good edge defenders on the roster has allowed the Pittsburgh pass rush to weather the team’s recent injury woes.
As T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith age, and Nick Herbig arrives at his first contract extension, there will be some interesting talking points around who the team can keep and afford – and who wants to stay.
But until then, it’s nothing but a good problem to have.
However, I’d agree that the Steelers haven’t always played to the strengths of their outside linebacker depth.
To be fair, the three haven’t been healthy all at once yet this season – and that was the case a good bit last year, too – so you can’t hold that against the team. But looking at the last few games where all three played, you could argue the Steelers rely a little too heavily on their starters:
Steelers vs. Ravens (Jan. 11)
- Alex Highsmith: 67 snaps
- T.J. Watt: 63 snaps
- Nick Herbig: 31 snaps
Steelers vs. Chiefs (Dec. 25)
- Highsmith: 52
- Watt: 49
- Herbig: 23
Steelers vs. Ravens (Dec. 11)
- Watt: 48
- Highsmith: 44
- Herbig: 19
Generally, Herbig is lucky to get half the reps Watt and Highsmith are playing. But in 2025, he’s currently second on the team in sacks despite having missed the season opener – he’s clearly proven he can succeed with a bigger workload.
I’ll spoil my answer here: While I think Highsmith should remain the starter, the Steelers should probably be resting him and Watt a little more often, evening out the snap counts between the team’s top three outside linebackers. Herbig may not be the most complete player of the group (more on that later) but his speed rush is unique to anyone on the team right now.
You can take five to 10 snaps a game away from each of Watt and Highsmith and give them to Herbig. He’ll still be fresh, and now Watt and Highsmith will be as well (some injury prevention, too, no?). And again, Herbig’s speed is a dangerous changeup (or fastball, I suppose) to suddenly throw at offensive tackles.
That said, the “bench Highsmith for Herbig” narrative just hasn’t made sense to me. I think Highsmith might be the most underrated player on the roster right now.
Ryan and I did a full breakdown of his excellent 2024 here, and that continued into 2025. Highsmith has played just one full game this season – Week 1 against the Jets – and he was one of a few bright spots on the Pittsburgh defense.
Per NFL Pro, Highsmith has an incredible 30.8% pressure rate this season, which is the best on the Steelers among those with five-plus pass-rushing snaps. In terms of traditional stats, he has nine tackles, one tackle for loss, and one sack over 67 defensive snaps this year.
I get wanting to put Herbig on the field more. But do you want to take this off the field?
That being said, sometimes those defending Highsmith can resort to tearing Herbig’s performance down. Is Highsmith better against the run? I’d say yes. He has better play strength and tends to be a bit stouter against offensive tackles.
But Herbig hasn’t exactly been a negative in that category this season, either.
The Steelers rush Herbig from a wide-9 stance more often than Highsmith, meaning he often only has to take on tight ends in the run game or his initial arc is too wide to affect the play. Again – I won’t argue that Highsmith isn’t a better all-around defender.
But Herbig has held his own when targeted in the ground game, and his quickness has allowed him to blow up plays behind the line of scrimmage at times. He’s not a liability outside of passing downs. And the Steelers seem to agree, giving him Highsmith-level snap counts in the latter’s absence (66 against the Vikings, 61 against the Patriots, and 51 against the Seahawks).
Highsmith has an edge over Herbig in run defense, but not to the extent where it makes Herbig unplayable. And when it comes to pass rushing, Highsmith has the deeper bag but Herbig has better speed and bend. It’s more of a choose-your-flavor situation.
As a result, beyond just rotating pass rushers more, I think the Steelers need to continue experimenting with their three-outside-linebacker package. That can mean rushing one of Watt, Highsmith, or Herbig from the A-gap, or kicking one of Watt or Highsmith inside a gap and letting Herbig continue to wreak havoc from his wide-9 split.
Highsmith himself has said he’s looking forward to those possibilities when he returns.
Ultimately, it comes down to Teryl Austin working to maximize all the talent he has in the outside linebacker room. Personally, I’d rotate Herbig in more, especially on passing downs when he can pin his ears back and go after the quarterback.
But it’s important to realize that when all three players are healthy, someone won’t be getting the snap counts they probably deserve. And you can’t run a gimmicky package with all three of them too many times a game.
It’s rare, but occasionally an NFL team just has too many mouths to feed at one position. This is one of those cases. Could Pittsburgh do more with its outside linebacker room? In some areas, sure. But this shouldn’t be a point of concern in 2025.
RP: Ryland is spot on with his assessment, so I’ll simply add a few reinforcements to his case.
Let’s start with the pass rush. It’s the splashiest and most notable on the broadcast, plus it seems to be what is most often cited by Herbig enthusiasts who suggest Highsmith be traded or have his role significantly reduced.
So far this season, Highsmith has played 26 pass-rush snaps. He’s generated eight pressures from that, including a sack. That’s incredibly efficient, as Ryland mentioned earlier, but we have to keep in mind that Highsmith played just 10 defensive snaps in Week 2, so most of his pass-rushing stats were from one game. That 30.8% pressure rate is not something we can expect to last.
To put it into further context, Highsmith’s pressure rates in his career have been:
- 2020: 12.6% (on 206 pass rush snaps)
- 2021: 12.6% (428)
- 2022: 13.3% (495)
- 2023: 17.5% (463)
- 2024: 16.0% (275)
So no, I don’t expect his pressure rate to remain above 30%. No pass rushers maintain that pace. When T.J. Watt recorded 22.5 sacks in 2021, his pressure rate was 16.6%. In recent years, the short list of best pass rushers in the league – guys like Watt, Myles Garrett, Trey Hendrickson, Nick Bosa, Micah Parsons, Maxx Crosby, Danielle, Hunter, etc – have generated pressures at a clip ranging somewhere between 16-21%. Parson’s 2021 was a high mark when he generated pressure on 25.0% of his 292 pass rush attempts.
When put in that light, it’s clear Highsmith is no slouch.
Herbig’s pass-rushing talent is also obvious. But it does seem that some of the Steelers faithful are suffering from recency bias when they position him as a superior rusher. Herbig has taken over Highsmith’s snaps in his absence. In that time, he has 104 pass rush attempts, which have resulted in 2.5 sacks and 16 pressures. Those are good numbers, but in 3 games, they are slightly behind what Highsmith was on pace for following Week 1.
Herbig’s efficiency numbers have also dipped slightly since last season. That should not be too surprising considering he’s already played roughly half the pass-rushing snaps he had all of last season. Here are his pass rush rates so far in his young career:
- 2023: 14.5% (69)
- 2024: 17.6% (204)
- 2025: 15.4% (104)
Don’t get me wrong, Herbig has been great and the Steelers are lucky to have him. But I think this illustrates the Steelers are just as fortunate to have both him and Highsmith. And let’s keep in mind, for as much flak as Highsmith seems to be getting right now for some recent battles with injuries, Herbig has missed games to injury as well, including the season opener this year.
Rotating the Steelers’ three top pass rushers would be a good way to help the Steelers keep each of them fresh and healthy. Pass rushers’ efficiency tends to dip the more snaps they play. After all, more snaps, more wear and tear, more situations late in games when they might be tired. This should be especially on the minds of the Steelers’ coaching staff, as the defense is playing more snaps than ever. The defense is currently on pace to play the most snaps it has in a season since 2015.
The Steelers don’t want to overtax Herbig. His game relies on speed, and the more snaps he gets, the more that speed will be taxed from the bumps and bruises of a season. While I’m certainly never going to question his toughness, it’s fair to consider Herbig’s 240-pound frame is a little lighter than most NFL edge defenders. It’s not a stretch to consider that while he might still be a plus player for the Steelers with an even bigger workload, he will also get more worn down. Getting him 250-350 pass rush attempts a season seems to give the Steelers the best shot at keeping Herbig at his freshest and most impactful. And if the Steelers can ever get all three of Herbig, Highsmith, and Watt healthy at the same time, there is no point during a game that an opposing tackle can let their guard down.
Seems like a great problem to have.
Join in on Steelers R&R by sharing your takes on this week’s topics. Where will the Steelers finish in the AFC North? How should the Steelers handle their Alex Highsmith-Nick Herbig dilemma? Feel free to pitch future questions in the comment section or on Twitter/X: tag @_Ryland_B or @RyanParishMedia, or email us at steelersreadnreact@gmail.com.
