This game probably doesn’t even matter. The Carolina Panthers could technically clinch the NFC South with a win and a Buccaneers loss to Quin Ewers and the Dolphins. The likelihood of both those things happening seems minuscule, but the Bucs are losing to everybody and the Panthers beat the Rams that one time, so you never know. If the Panthers do lose, next Sunday will be for the division title.
The Seahawks possess arguably the best defense in the league. They are first in defensive DVOA, fourth
in EPA per play, fourth in success rate, and second in opponent yards per play. They got caught up in a shootout against the Rams last week, but prior to that, they had given up 25 total points in their previous three games. There is no weak area in this group. They pressure the passer, limit passing yards, and swallow up opposing run games. Playing against this defense is an exercise in survival.
The recipe for a win over the Seahawks is exactly the same as it was against the Rams. The Panthers executed the plan perfectly, and they’ll have to do it again. Here’s how it works:
- Run the ball and sustain long drives. The first key in beating a team that’s superior in just about every way is to minimize the total number of possessions in the game. Fewer possessions means more noise and fewer drives in which the Panthers have to keep pace with Seattle. That means they need to grind out positive yards on runs, get timely completions and high percentage throws from Bryce Young, and go for and convert fourth downs. Punts back to the Seahawks just give them more chances to score. The Panthers need to hold the ball as long as they can. This is a case where time of possession actually matters.
- Do not turn the ball over. This is obvious. It’s important in every game. But the Panthers are going to need to win the turnover battle to win the game. That becomes infinitely harder against a very good offense if the Panthers offense is giving the ball away. It also undermines key number one. You can’t have long possessions if you’re giving the ball away in the middle of them.
- Hit big plays. We saw the Panthers do this against the Rams with long completions on fourth downs. While the Panthers do need to simply keep the chains moving as much as possible, they’re going to need to mix in a few big plays to put points on the board. It’s going to be very hard to move all the way down the field and score touchdowns by dinking and dunking on every drive. The Panthers need to find spots between all the chain moving to hit deep strikes so they don’t have to win on every play against a defense that’s significantly better than this offense.
