The Florida State Seminoles (3-3, 1-2) are in North Dade for their annual rivalry game against the 3rd-ranked Miami (FL) Hurricanes at Hard Rock Stadium on Saturday. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m., and ESPN will televise the game.
Miami (5-0, 3-0) leads the all-time series 37-33, while FSU holds a 21-19 edge in games played at Miami. The Seminoles are 13-9 in the series since Miami joined the ACC before the 2004 season but have lost the last 3 games, including a 28-22 loss last season in Tallahassee.
FSU’s last victory over UM came in 2023, a 27-20 win at Doak, marking the Noles third win in a row against Miami (FL).
UM’s Mario Cristobal is in his 5th season and has a 40-19 record in Miami and a 102-79 overall career record as a head coach. Miami opened its 2026 ACC slate with three straight road game wins over Stanford, Wake Forest, and Clemson and is one of only three teams with three Power-4 road wins. Miami is coming off a bye week after a 41-13 win over Clemson on the road last time out on Oct. 3.
UM, led by mercenary QB Darian Mensah, who was purchased away from Duke via the transfer portal, has thrown 15 touchdowns with no interceptions. Mark Fletcher Jr. is their rushing leader, averaging 76.75 yards per game with 5 touchdowns, followed by freshman Javian Mallory, who averages 57.8 yards per game and has scored 3 TD’s.
Receiver Malachi Toney, a name Seminole fans will get tired of hearing, is Mensah’s favorite target, catching 39 passes with a 15.49 average and 6 touchdowns. Cooper Barkate, who was part of the Mensah portal purchase package from Duke, is 2nd on the team with 19 receptions with a 12.68 average per game and 4 touchdowns.
Overall, 14 players have caught passes from UM quarterbacks this season, 21 different players have gained 10-or-more scrimmage yards, and 11 different players have 100+ scrimmage yards this year.
Miami’s defense is ranked 1st in points allowed (9.8), 1st against the run (42.6), 5th in total defense (249.6), 69th against the pass, T-25th in red zone defense, and 8th in sacks per game. Former FSU kicker Jake Weinberg is perfect in his 5 field goal attempts.
Florida State will try to avoid its 14th straight loss in games away from Doak after coming off an embarrassing performance at Louisville, when after jumping out to a 14-0 lead, the Cardinals outscored FSU 44-6 the rest of the way to their 44-20 win.
Florida State’s offense is ranked 56th in the nation in total offense, 62nd in scoring, 43rd in rushing, 80th in passing, and 73rd in red-zone offense.
After giving up three touchdown runs of 40-plus yards (97, 44, 68) and allowing Louisville to rack up 537 total yards, FSU’s defense now ranks 122nd in the nation, giving up 410 yards/game, 114th in passing defense (244 yards/game), 100th in third-down percentage allowing opponents to convert 41% of the time on third-down attempts, and T-120th in first-down defense allowing their opponents 129 first downs this season.
Florida State is currently trending as a 21.5-point underdog, with the over/under set at 56.5 points, according to FanDuel.
- Read what your TOMAHAWK NATION PROGNOSTICATORS think about this Saturday’s showdown.
- Then look over and digest all the FREE PRE-GAME CONTENT we’ve posted leading up to this game.
- We would love to hear your thoughts about how you feel about this game and your final score prediction in the comments.
- Jordan Silversmith (season record: 5-1)
Not sure how much needs to be written here. The Hurricanes have a positional advantage at every spot, better coordinators than FSU, and are coming off a bye while playing at home. If being a 21-point underdog doesn’t explain the differences between the two teams, nothing will. We can talk about why there’s such a difference another day, but for Saturday, UM wins and covers.
UM 45, FSU 17
- Jessi Wynn (season record: 3-1)
Although we’ve really seen Ashton Daniels come into his own and emerge as a leader on offense, I’m not sure it’ll be enough to take down the undefeated 5-0 Hurricanes. FSU showed a ton of potential during its two-game winning streak, but last week’s tough loss to Louisville was a setback. With Miami playing as well as it has, I just don’t think I can put my neck on the line for the Seminoles this week.
Miami 35, Noles 24
- NoleThruandThru (season record: 6-0)
I’m just here so I don’t get fined, especially this week. Like Ludacris says, Mario fills cups like Double Ds.
Miami 62, FSU 20
- Jon Marchant (season record: 5-1)
The Hurricanes certainly look like a national title contender, though we may not know for certain until the playoffs. Miami might face only one top 25 team this regular season, and it’s not Florida State.
Miami is much more talented, and whatever issues Mario Cristobal may or may not still have regarding game management it’s likely equalized by Mike Norvell’s own problems in that area.
Is this Norvell’s last game? We’ll have to see. If he’s still the coach next Saturday I think the decision to retain him is being made after an embarrassing loss to a rival.
Miami 52, FSU 16
- Tim Scribble (season record: 5-1)
Miami should be able to name their score in this one. I expect Mario and crew to embarrass Florida State.
Miami 50+, FSU 17
- Jacob Smith (season record: 3-2)
FSU is so cooked. That is all that needs to be said.
Darian Mensah is playing like a Heisman-level quarterback. He hasn’t thrown a single interception this year. Everything about Miami says absurd in terms of their quality of play. Now, they haven’t played *anyone* worth being No. 3, but they have convincingly won against bad teams.
Doesn’t matter. FSU is getting clobbered.
Miami 67, FSU 3
- LastNoleOfKrypton (season record: 4-1)
Mario’s propensity to blow one isn’t going to stop this bloodbath.
Miami 52, FSU 17
- Frank DNole (season record: 3-3)
I am a broken FSU fan. However, while SCum is heavily favored, this game is actually a win-win for FSU.
If FSU wins by playing its best road game since November 25, 2023, as 21-point dogs, at the rented stadium, against one of the top teams in the country in terms of buying transfer players in hopes of becoming relevant again after 25 years of mediocrity under 5 different head coaches, each of whom proclaimed they would bring back the u (Coker, Shannon, Golden, Richt, Diaz, and Cristoball), that would be cool. If that were to happen, it would be the biggest humiliation the Noles could give scum since the 47-0 thrashing in 1997 and could possibly cost them heavily in the polls and later in possible playoff consideration. #winning
If FSU loses, especially if blown out, the Noles still win, in that it will speed up what needs to be done to move FSU along on making the needed changes on Sunday morning. SCum thinks they will be putting the final nail in Norvell’s tenure, and while that may be true, they are doing the Noles a favor by possibly forcing the administration to act sooner than they may have wanted to. If that happens and the delusional scummers think it happened because they beat FSU, bless their hearts, all it will do is help speed up what was going to happen anyway and what most Noles want. So thanks? #winning
Here is how I’m going to look at this game:
- Florida State is the last program to win a national championship in the state of Florida.
- FSU has won 5 ACC titles since scum joined the self-proclaimed All Canes Conference in 2004, and they still have zero titles 21 years later.
- Kudos to them for buying their way into the playoffs last year, but until you win an ACC title or a National Championship, a win tonight would just be another meaningless regular-season win.
- If scum, with the amount of money they have invested in their star-studded roster, do not win the National Championship, or at the very least the ACC championship this year, they never will.
- Finally, as a broken Seminole fan, I will watch this game with zero expectations, comfortably numb (shout to TN member ?), with the TV on mute and listening to Rage Against The Machine being played backwards.
That said, FSU players… blah blah 110% more effort, blah… want it more, and blah blah… more heart than their more talented and better coached opponent.
FSU Seminoles 37, FMFFM 34
- Perry Kostidakis (season record: 3-3, 3-3 ATS)
In 2024, we saw Mario Cristobal play it relatively safe instead of attempting to set a new record for margin of victory (47) in the series, with Miami winning by “just” 22.
I don’t think that happens this year, a season where the Hurricanes are trying to make up for their lack of a difficult schedule with blowouts on top of trying to pad stats for Darian Mensah’s finish-in-second Heisman campaign.
Florida State won’t be shut out, Ousmane Kromah should have at least a few exciting runs and maybe another cool Micahi Danzy catch. Outside of that, though, barring a hilarious meltdown from Miami, that should be just about the extent of positive takeaways from the matchup.
Miami 57, FSU 24
Florida State Seminoles vs. Miami (FL)
Pre-Game Coverage from Tomahawk Nation
- Line of Scrimmage: Getting to know the Miami Hurricanes with Adam Lichtenstein of The Sun Sentinel
- TN Exclusive: “I had the relationships”: How Peter Collins shaped Florida State’s response to the Protect College Sports Act
- Mike Norvell’s strength used to be how he coaches against rivals. It could now be the final push over the edge of his tenure
- Column: FSU’s inability to respond to adversity is the defining trait of Mike Norvell’s waning years
- Media: Mike Norvell on the Miami rivalry: “It’s one of the great games in all of college football”
- Snap Counts: FSU’s offensive and defensive snap counts from the Louisville debacle
- Injury Report: Florida State and Miami release initial availability report ahead of Saturday night showdown
- Media Monday: Mike Norvell on the collapse versus Louisville, looking ahead to Miami: “None of us were good enough”
- Update:DB Chuck Kennon no longer with FSU football team following arrest
- Media: Mike Norvell on FSU’s 44-20 loss to Louisville: “Extremely poor performance”
- How To Watch: Florida State Seminoles vs. Miami Hurricanes: How to watch, stream, odds
- TN Staff Predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs. Miami (FL)
- Guest column: The numbers behind how Mike Norvell built Florida State back up, then took it apart
- “ACC Requested Change”: Inside the conference’s campaign for the Protect College Sports Act, Part 2
- “Confidential — Do Not Distribute”: Inside ACC’s campaign for the Protect College Sports Act
- Exclusive: FSU, Miami, Clemson, UNC ask Congress to change Protect College Sports Act’s realignment rules
- Mike Norvell’s FSU salary, buyout info
Florida State Seminoles vs. Miami (FL): How to watch, stream, odds
Date
- Saturday, October 17th
Time
- 7:00 p.m. ET
Watch/Stream
- Channel: ESPN
- Stream: WatchESPN | ESPN App
Listen
- Seminoles Radio Network
- FSU Broadcast: Ch. 258 |SXM App
Spread
- +21.5, Florida State
Over/Under
- 56.5 points
Weekly Tomahawk Nation Member Guest Picker
This week’s guest picker is a longtime TN member, IndyFSUnole, who will be celebrating his 17th TN anniversary in about 3 months after joining on January 29, 2010 at 4:26:34 p.m.
I’ve been around for a while. I think that’s why Frank stopped by my cabana at the racquet club a few weeks ago and asked me to be a guest picker. I haven’t been around long enough to see us shut out the canes in back-to-back years, like we did in 1963 and 1964. I’m not old enough to remember when they beat us 47-0 in 1976, in Bobby Bowden’s second game as our head coach. But I definitely remember when he paid them back by beating them 47-0 in 1997.
In the old days of athletics, when the coaches got mad at us for lack of effort or discipline or who-knows-what, they’d enact the universal but dreaded punishment of “wind sprints.” For the uninitiated, as punishment, you’re compelled to do a long, full-effort sprint, followed by a short bit of rest, then do it all again. And again. And again. I don’t know what the Canes’ skill players have done to warrant this type of treatment from Tony White, but I think this is what we’re going to see his defense force them into this weekend: wind sprints, several of them, much to our dismay.
You never know exactly what you’re going to get in rivalry games, though. I think this one will be closer than it should be, and whatever they do to us, we just have to remember to pay them back in full, even if it takes more than 20 years.
Canes: 50, Noles: 17
*The TN member with the closest final score prediction in the comment section below will be given the opportunity to be a guest picker later this season if they are interested in participating.
