The NL East champion Phillies come to town this weekend. They’re riding a streak of six consecutive series victories, and despite securing their playoff berth, don’t seem to be showing many signs of slowing down.
On the other hand, despite their best efforts, the Diamondbacks continue to find themselves on the outside looking in to the playoff picture. They’re currently tied with the Reds, two games behind the Mets. Time is rapidly running out and frankly they have no choice but to sweep this series.
It’s a tall order.
Game 1 — 9/19, 6:40 PM — Ryne Nelson (7-3, 3.34 ERA, 132 ERA+, 1.056 WHIP) vs. Taijuan Walker (5-8, 4.17 ERA, 107 ERA+, 1.38 WHIP)
When we look back at this season, I think the main takeaway will be Nelson coming into his own. He has just continued to impress, and I have to imagine that another extension for a young pitcher is on the table this offseason. He comes into this game riding a six game streak of six innings or more pitched and in half of those he has given up one run or fewer.
Old Friend Taijuan Walker will take the ball for Philadelphia in Game 1 of the series. He’s had an up and down season. Started in the rotation, went to the bullpen for the month of June, then has been a starter again since. Counting from that return to the rotation, he’s had an ERA of 4.62, but a FIP of 5.62. I don’t have any solid metrics to back that up with, but it feels like recently when I’ve typed that in a preview, it’s ended up being a good thing for the Diamondbacks. Their offense has a tendency to cause some regression to the mean.
Game 2 — 9/20, 5:10 — Zac Gallen (12-14, 4.73 ERA, 93 ERA+, 1.25 WHIP) vs. Aaron Nola (4-9, 6.44 ERA, 69 ERA+, 1.43 WHIP)
I’d be curious to know what exactly Mike Hazen said to Zac Gallen on the evening of July 31st, because whatever it was, it sure seems to have worked. Since the night of the biggest non-move the Diamondbacks made, Zac Gallen has gone 5-2, with a 2.68 ERA. He has only gone less than six innings once, and has only given up more than three runs once. It has been a streak of vintage Gallen, and I’m sure whatever team picks him up in free agency will enjoy it very much.
Taking the mound opposite to him is another veteran pitcher who is having a season to forget, but one so bad it makes Gallen’s look positively decent in comparison. Started off fine, but middle of May he sprained his ankle then fractured a rib while in recovery. Since returning, he’s had six starts, only one has seen him give up less than three runs. Three of the starts he gave up six runs. It’s been pretty gnarly for the vet.
Game 3 — 9/21, 1:10 PM — Eduardo Rodriguez (8-8, 5.12 ERA, 1.56 WHIP) vs. Ranger Suarez (12-6, 2.84 ERA, 157 ERA+, 1.16 WHIP)
Rodriguez had been pitching so well for a few starts, but went right back to his old ways last start against the Giants. Five runs in five innings just won’t cut it.
Suarez is putting out his best season of pure starting pitching in his career. He had better metrics in 2021, but that was split between starting and closing. This season, he’s been starting every game and putting up both his best ERA and ERA+ as a starter so far. In his last five starts, he has only given up four total runs, three of those were to the Dodgers in his last start. Just unbelievably good lately.
Conclusion
I actually like the Diamondbacks chances this series. The way I see it, they have a strong advantage in the first two games of the series, and Rodriguez the past month or so has been more of a coin toss than a straight up loss. They need to sweep, though. Anything more than that, and they continue to let their playoff dreams slip through their fingers. No losses. Not at this point in the year.
