The St. Louis Cardinals outperformed expectations based on preseason projections but as the season went on, I admit to being disappointed in this season finishing below .500. While it may not have made much difference in the overall standings, the young Cardinals left plenty of meat on the bone in the win column this year. The fWAR numbers tell a different story, but the pitching was the culprit more often than not.
Bullpens are a coin flip the majority of the time, especially in a rebuild, but there
seemed to be times the relief corps was treated unfairly. The lack of interest in churning the 12th and 13th pitching spots over to avoid an overworked and seemingly always taxed bullpen. This will likely be addressed in a different way during a contention window, so I am not ready to get too upset over it just yet.
In the starting rotation, opportunities were given according to plan it seems. Dustin May was always going to be a trade piece at the deadline to give way to whichever prospect was knocking on the door. Richard Fitts was injured early, so that put Hunter Dobbins in the spot, who was then lost for the year with elbow surgery. Those injuries along with Matthew Liberatore’s poor year in the rotation mean that there are a couple spots up for grabs in 2027.
Quinn Mathews leads the way in the Cardinals’ future rotation competition
As things stand at the end of the 2026 season, next year’s rotation guarantees spots to Andre Pallante, Kyle Leahy, and Michael McGreevy. Dobbins was the early lock for the fourth spot, but he will be out most or all of next seasons.There has been little update on Fitts, so the final two spots in the rotation need to be figured out.
Quinn Mathews has gotten the biggest opportunity in the season’s final stretch and has taken full advantage. After last night’s five inning start against the Brewers, Mathews finishing his major league season giving up three runs or fewer in eight of his nine starts. In nearly 50 big league innings, we got the full Mathews experience with strikeouts, walks, unhittable stretches, and the longball. According to Jeff Jones, manager Oliver Marmol said that Mathews will be the McGreevy of this season and is penciled into the rotation.
That still keeps a young rotation that has some upside, but currently lacks a true veteran presence. In what is an attempt at a power ranking for the fifth starting spot, I would rank tradable free agent signee as the leader in the clubhouse. In some world, that could become Dustin May again (how fun), but I also hope the Cardinals get someone with a little more long-term potential. The 2027 season could either be really fun or really painful, so getting a veteran outside of the top-five free agents would be a move I would like to see considered.
Younger arms are probably outside of this spot for St. Louis as those pitchers are more expensive and looking for long-term deals that the Cardinals may not be able to offer. Without looking too far into the free agent list or expected contracts, some names that pop up are Shane Bieber, Patrick Sandoval, Michael Soroka, and Griffin Canning. Not a super interesting list, but potentially a better fit for the 2027 version of the Cardinals.
Beyond FATBNL, the Cardinals would probably like to go internal (cheap) and give a reliever a chance at the rotation or give lower-profile Triple-A arms tryout opportunities. For the relieve transition, the obvious candidate is Gordon Graceffo, who has basically followed Kyle Leahy’s career usage to a T. He has been on a starter’s regimen more recently than when Leahy began his shift, so if Graceffo earns the spot, I would be interested to follow his innings restriction in comparison to Leahy’s.
To cheat and stick with the reliever shift, Cooper Hjerpe will also be in consideration, but I believe he is the leading candidate for the Quinn Mathews treatment this year. Hjerpe missed time with injury and struggled with command in the same way that Mathews did last season. Because of that, I could see him very easily being rotation option six for when there is an extended opportunity in the big league staff.
Sticking with the lower profile options, Cade Winquest could also be an option in the same way that Brycen Mautz may figure into the team’s plans. They could enter spring training in a theoretical competition for the rotation but both become larger pieces of the relief corps instead. The reason I stuck with guys in this tier rather than some more upside prospects is because of the 2027 lockout/work stoppage/strike/whatever is on tap. I would think Jurrangelo Cintnje, Ixan Henderson, and Mason Molina will compete in some way once there is clarity on minor league options and 40-man placement.
There is plenty that can change with this list, but hopefully with the offseason approaching, we will not hear any injury news to cloud their availability for 2027. The biggest question mark is probably the lockout, and I refuse to pay much attention until the season is in jeopardy. In my naivety, I will treat my offseason wishes as if the season is to happen on schedule and that is going to figure into my thoughts and preferences.
The pitching will be one of the larger stories and what the team does with Matthew Liberatore will start to clear some pictures. Libby could easily be in the competition as well and he always shows a flash of something right after I personally write him off.
Let me know your pitching wish list for the offseason and who you want to see round out to the rotation. Thanks as always, it was a pleasure riding the 2026 roller coaster with you!
