The 2025-’26 ‘BTPowerhouse Season Preview’ series will take an in-depth look at all 18 teams in the Big Ten heading into the 2025-’26 season with analysis on each program’s previous season, roster overhaul,
and top storylines. Each post will also include predictions on each team’s postseason potential.
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Despite relatively high expectations surrounding Mike Rhoades’ arrival two years ago, the Penn State Nittany Lions have largely underachieved. His first season produced a 16-17 overall record and the second season was only a notch better at 16-15 overall. It all sets the program up for what feels like a “make or break” third season for Rhoades and company. Unfortunately, it’s unclear if Rhoades has the roster to get the job done.
Let’s take a look.
1. Last Season.
The 2024-’25 season was a modest disappointment for Nittany Lion fans. While the team actually outperformed its preseason KenPom rating (though only by three spots), fans were hoping for more progress in Rhoades’ second bite at the apple. He inherited a rough situation when he replaced Micah Shrewsberry and a program in transition. However, he had a full year and a half to get things right this time around and the progress was difficult to see, if there was any at all.
Perhaps the most disappointing part of the season was how little Penn State did to capitalize on a fantastic start. Many forget that Penn State jumped out to an 8-1 start to the season that included wins over Purdue, Virginia Tech, and Purdue Fort Wayne. The team also eventually reached 12-2 overall at the beginning of the new year, following a quality win over Northwestern on January 2nd.
Unfortunately, disaster struck after that, as Penn State proceeded to lose its next four games, 11 of its next 12 games, and 13 of its next 16 games. The 3-13 run destroyed any hope fans had for the season and completely erased the fast start. And while the group had a bit of a bounce to close things out with a win over Wisconsin to end the season, they still missed the postseason altogether, falling short of the Big Ten Tournament with a 6-14 conference record. Ace Baldwin and Yanic Konan Niederhauser were the team’s most significant contributors during the year.
2. Roster Overlook.
Penn State’s roster will look significantly different this fall, after most of the team’s contributors departed last spring. The Nittany Lions lost 11 players in Ace Baldwin, Jahvin Carter, D’Marco Dunn, Miles Goodman, Zach Hicks, Puff Johnson, Nick Kern, Yanic Konan Niederhauser, Kachi Nzeh, Joe Sedora, and Hudson Ward. That group includes the team’s top three players in total minutes and eight of its top nine. By any objective measure, that’s a colossal amount of contributions walking out the door.
The good news is Penn State has plenty of newcomers. The squad adds seven new recruits in Mason Blackwood, Reggie Grodin, Justin Houser, Ivan Juric, Kayden Mingo, Tibo Mirtic, and Melih Tunca, two transfers in Sasa Ciani from UIC and Josh Reed from Cincinnati, and a walk-on in Chris Lotito.
Blackwood and Mingo are receiving the most attention of the high school prospects, as both arrive as top 125 recruits in the 2025 recruiting class. Mirtic and Tunca are also interesting players, arriving on campus out of Europe. Notably, Mirtic started in the team’s recent exhibition. Reed is also getting attention after a productive, but limited season with the Bearcats last year. However, Reed is expected to be limited early on.
3. The Schedule.
-Non-Conference Schedule:
- 10/19 – at Dayton (Exh.)
- 10/26 – Shippensburg (Exh.)
- 11/3 – Fairfield
- 11/8 – at New Haven
- 11/11 – Navy
- 11/15 – La Salle (Philadelphia, PA)
- 11/19 – Harvard
- 11/22 – Providence (Uncasville, CT)
- 11/25 – Boston University
- 11/29 – Sacred Heart
- 12/2 – Campbell
- 12/21 – Pittsburgh (Hershey, PA)
- 12/29 – NC Central
-Conference Schedule:
- 12/9 – at Indiana
- 12/13 – Michigan State
- 1/3 – Illinois (Philadelpha, PA)
- 1/6 – Michigan
- 1/10 – at Purdue
- 1/14 – UCLA
- 1/18 – at Maryland
- 1/22 – Wisconsin
- 1/26 – at Ohio State
- 1/29 – at Northwestern
- 2/1 – Minnesota
- 2/5 – at Michigan
- 2/8 – USC
- 2/11 – at Washington
- 2/14 – at Oregon
- 2/18 – Rutgers
- 2/21 – at Nebraska
- 2/28 – Iowa
- 3/4 – Ohio State
- 3/8 – at Rutgers
-Postseason Schedule:
- March, 2026 – Big Ten Tournament (Chicago, IL)
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Penn State hopes to take a step forward this season and will prepare to do it against a fairly manageable slate. To start, this projects as one of the easier non-conference schedules in the league. Providence projects as the toughest opponent and the Friars are only 48th on KenPom. More simply stated, if Penn State performs at even a top 50ish level, every non-conference game on its schedule is winnable.
The downside to a weak schedule, however, is if things go wrong. Penn State projects to face eight opponents rated outside the top 200 on KenPom entering the season. A loss to any of those eight would have drastic impacts on the team’s NET rating. So, while wins are there for the taking, it could end up being a minefield.
Of course, the easy slate will evaporate as Penn State turns to conference play. KenPom has the Nittany Lions as outright underdogs in 18 of the team’s 20 conference games. And in the only two games where Penn State is favored (home against Minnesota and Rutgers), the team is only a mild favorite. Given those circumstances, the key is going to be avoiding too rough of a start. Penn State can’t let its season get away from it by January again.
4. Biggest Obstacle.
Penn State’s biggest struggle last season was its inability to surround Baldwin with quality contributors. Baldwin could initiate plays and get guys into position, but the Nittany Lions didn’t have enough shooters to cash in on those opportunities, as the team ranked 301st nationally in percentage of team points from outside the arc.
The good things is things should be more “balanced” for Penn State this year. Unfortunately, that’s likely because the backcourt will take a step back without Baldwin. Mingo arrives with plenty of hype, but it’s hard to see him outperforming Baldwin, especially as a freshman. Tunca and Freddie Dilione also have ability, it’s just hard to see either being a star player this season. However, it’s going to take one (if not multiple) of those players rising up to the next level for Penn State to be a serious player in the Big Ten this season.
Overall, much will hinge on Mingo’s progress. Penn State is going to need someone to initiate offense without Baldwin and it’s probably going to be him. Simply put, there aren’t a ton of other options. However, if he can hit the ground running, perhaps he can elevate his surrounding cast, which could be more complete than last year’s group.
5. Realistic Expectations.
Two years ago, Rhoades took over in a rough situation. Penn State was trying to recover from Micah Shrewsberry’s exit and a roster had to be put together overnight. As such, expectations were relatively low in his first two seasons. But, entering year three, most are hoping to see some progress.
Unfortunately, Rhoades probably doesn’t have the pieces to do it this year. While the 2025 recruiting class has multiple players (particularly Mingo and Blackwood) that look really promising, they’re going to be freshmen joining a team without a ton of proven options. Thus, it’s going to be tough for them to do much this season, without drastically exceeding expectations.
All told, Penn State is probably going to be near the bottom of the league. We have them picked last, but the bottom handful are all really close. The Nittany Lions could easily outperform that, though a top half finish looks tough.
