Yesterday, we saw the best of Dylan Crews. He was hitting rifles all over the yard, including a 442 foot nuke to give the Nats an insurance run they desperately needed. This was Dylan Crews at his best, something we unfortunately do not see often enough. Crews has these great games, they just do not happen often enough.
Even after yesterday’s great performance, Crews’ overall numbers are far from impressive. He is hitting .198 with a .602 OPS on the
season. There have been times this year where Dylan Crews has looked really good, but it is usually followed by several games where he does nothing.
A perfect example of that just happened recently. Crews hit a massive 3-run homer against the Royals, and then followed it up by going 1 for 11. That just feels like the story of Crews’ season, and really his big league career. It is one step forward, two steps back.
However, when you look at the underlying data, there is some reason for optimism, though I will show one area of weakness to explore. Crews’ xwOBA is .342, which is above average, and way better than his .264 wOBA. He is hitting the ball hard, swinging hard, and actually hitting way fewer ground balls.
Crews has had a major ground ball problem in the past, so many fans including myself assumed that was still the case this year. However, that is not his big issue right now. Crews’ 41.5% GB rate is actually lower than average and way down from his 50.2% rate from last year.
If ground balls are not the problem for Crews, then what is? In my opinion, he has two issues. The first one is pretty straightforward, he is chasing a ton and not walking at all. Crews’ chase rate this year is a career high 37.6%. In 2024 and 2025, Crews’ chase rate was under 30%. The lack of chase, as well as the lack of fear he brings pitchers is why he is not walking at all. Crews only has 2 walks all season, which is a 1.9% BB rate.
Crews’ second problem is actually a bit counterintuitive. He is hitting the ball to the middle of the field too often right now. Dylan Crews is hitting the ball straightaway 48.8% of the time, over 10% more often than the average hitter. As kids, we were all taught to use the middle of the field, but in 2026 major league baseball, that strategy has drawbacks.
Lance Brozdowski made a video about how balls hit to center field, even barrels to center are outs more than ever in the past few seasons. One of the big reasons for this is pretty simple, center fielders have gotten insanely good at defense. From Jacob Young to PCA to Ceddanne Rafaela and more, there are just so many good center fielders right now.
The average center fielder is also much better at defense. Even Dylan Crews himself is a good example of a good center field defender, at least when he is out there. With positioning being very good and all these hyper athletes in center, it is tough to live off the middle of the field.
You also have to really destroy a ball to hit a homer to center field. Dylan Crews can obviously do that, as we saw yesterday. However, it is a tough way to live, especially if you are not an 80 grade power guy like James Wood. Honestly, as we see from Wood, flyballs the other way are more productive than ones to center.
Crews’ heavy use of the middle of the field could explain why his xwOBA is so much higher than his raw numbers. Part of this is bad luck, but Crews also has a bad habit of hitting the ball to the other team’s best defenders. Even with that in mind, I do think Crews is getting unlucky.
However, until he starts pulling the ball more, or even just not hitting half his balls up the middle, he is going to underperform his expected stats. It is an interesting dilemma that would not have been as much of a problem even 10 years ago. However, the up the middle athletes these days are just insane.
For these reasons, Dylan Crews is still searching for that consistency. He is doing a lot of things well, like hitting the ball hard, whiffing less and elevating more. You would think his luck will turn around some, but there are some interesting factors at play with Crews.
