The Wisconsin Badgers suffered an ugly 85-71 loss on the road to the Oregon Ducks on Wednesday night, falling to 19-9 on the year and 11-6 in conference play.
It was a game that Wisconsin was favored in by 6.5 points and one against a team that had the second-worst record in conference play. But Oregon had won two of its last three games and proved to be a force, while the Badgers’ inconsistencies showed up yet again.
After beating the Illinois Fighting Illini and Michigan State Spartans two weeks
ago, the Badgers looked destined for a strong finish to the season. But they’ve now lost on the road in back-to-back weeks by a considerable margin, and have some serious questions to answer over the final two weeks of the regular season.
Heading into Wednesday, Wisconsin was hoping to finish the season strong to push for a top-four seed in the Big Ten Tournament. However, the margins are becoming slimmer and slimmer after the loss. Let’s look at the current Big Ten standings and what the Badgers need.
Below are the top eight teams in the conference with their Big Ten record in parentheses.
1. Michigan (16-1)
2. Nebraska (13-4)
3. Illinois (13-4)
4. Michigan State (12-4)
5. Purdue (12-4)
6. Wisconsin (11-6)
7. UCLA (11-6)
8. Iowa (10-7)
With three games to go, Wisconsin is 1.5 games behind both Michigan State and Purdue (who play each other on Thursday), and two games back of Nebraska and Illinois.
The loser of the Michigan State and Purdue game will fall just one game behind the Badgers in fifth place, but the result will mean that each of the top four teams is at least two games ahead of the Badgers with three to go.
Michigan seems safe, regardless of what happens in the final games, and they’re trending towards a No. 1 seed. So, let’s look at the remaining schedule for the other top teams:
Nebraska: at USC, at UCLA, vs. Iowa
Illinois: vs. Michigan, vs. Oregon, at Maryland
Michigan State: at Purdue, at Indiana, vs. Rutgers, at Michigan
Purdue: vs. Michigan State, at Ohio State, at Northwestern, vs. Wisconsin
Nebraska is the only one of the four teams that doesn’t play a top-six team in the conference. Interestingly enough, the Badgers do have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Illinois and Michigan State, and could tie Purdue in the season series with an upset in the finale.
But it’s still quite an uphill climb for a top-four seed. They’d benefit from a Michigan State road win on Thursday, as the Spartans have the hardest schedule remaining with Indiana and Michigan on the road. That provides an avenue for losses, so the Badgers can climb up the standings.
Even then, though, Wisconsin would need Michigan State to lose two of those three last games (likely against Indiana and Michigan) to have a shot. If Purdue beats the Spartans, the Badgers would need them to lose one more game and beat them in the season finale. Then, if it’s a two-team tiebreaker, Wisconsin would get the edge because of head-to-head against the No. 1 team (Michigan).
Wisconsin is actually quite favored in the tiebreakers. If, somehow, it gets to a three-way tiebreaker at 14-6 between Purdue, Michigan State, and Wisconsin, the Badgers would get the No. 4 seed over both the other teams. Wisconsin and Purdue both trump Michigan State in the combined head-to-head, and then the Badgers get the same tiebreaker against the No. 1 team over Purdue.
Regardless, the Badgers need to win out now to get a top-four seed, likely. And they’ll need some help along the way, needing losses from Purdue or Michigan State (or both).
