The blog’s own Nik Land posed an important question on X that we’ll surely be talking about heavily throughout the next few weeks: what does the Celtics’ Opening Night starting 5 look like?
Does Payton Pritchard open on the bench? Is it Neemias Queta or Mitchell Robinson setting the tone in the frontcourt? Do one of Boston’s rising wings get an early crack at a starting role?
They’re all valid questions. But constants remain. Every lineup prediction will rightfully
lock in Derrick White, Jayson Tatum and Paul George, and every lineup can be looked at under the lens of “how does this group help Tatum run the show?”
It also posed a different question for me: what do the rotations look when JT’s not on the floor?
That is a big question.
Tatum was eased in a bit with 32.6 minutes per game in his regular season return last year, his lowest per game average since 2018-19. In six postseason games, his minutes jumped back up to 36, the regular season norm for his prior five seasons.
It’s a smaller-scale issue to figure out now than it seemed a year ago, when Boston had to endure a Tatum-less existence with Jaylen Brown running the show with a roster built on unproven commodities.
Those guys are unproven no longer. With established depth and a few new pieces, the Celtics are able to put together an impressive combination of bench lineups to steady the ship — or even win their minutes — when Tatum sits.
With the help of Basketball Index’s Lineup Analyzer which uses stabilized lineup data and helps us compare lineups of various sample sizes (as well as some opinionated liberties), let’s look at three lineup combinations that could provide well-rounded, two-way impact even as Boston gives a breather to its star catalyst.
Pritchard-Harper Jr.-Hauser-George-Robinson
Whether Payton Pritchard starts or not, the biggest expectation is that he’ll be a massive figure when Tatum’s off the floor.
From his days as a garbage time showman to his Sixth Man of the Year season, Pritchard has never shied away from an opportunity to run offense. He loves being the system’s linchpin, and in this case he certainly is, though he’s working within a 5-man combo that just seems like it can beat you in so many ways.
There’s the Pritchard-Robinson pick-and-roll, there’s the dribble-penetration kickout game to multiple marksmen, there’s PG-13 isolations. This feels close to the very best version of the Celtics when Tatum isn’t out there.
That 2-guard spot can go a few different ways outside of Ron Harper Jr. That could be Baylor Scheierman or Hugo Gonzalez surely, but RHJ was placed here because, along with his on and off-ball versatility next to Pritchard, his strength and 7 ‘1.25 wingspan gives this lineup a bit more help to defend on drives and paint touches.
Basketball Index’s predictive model certainly gives its flowers to the offensive upside of this lineup, though a 114.4 defensive rating would place them in the middle of the road (Golden State was 16th in the league in defensive rating with that same figure).
White-Gonzalez-Walsh-George-Robinson
This lineup would enter me into a defensive nirvana.
Just imagine the possibilities, imagine the frustration of a player on the other end. Guys angrily slamming the ball into the floor after a moving screen, hands thrown futilely into the air after a bad pass, that wide-eyed look of an off-ball teammate watching as not one, not two, but three Celtics collapse the paint and collectively send the ball into the stands.
Yeah, there’s no Tatum, but there are three guys that are houndingly effective screen navigators, one of which is the best shot-blocking guard currently playing the game.
There would be questions about the offensive logistics of this lineup, but the way I’m looking at it is how this becomes an opportunity for George to take the reins as a temporary top option.
George scored a respectable 1.03 PPP in isolation last year on 52.6% eFG. He was 11th in the NBA in isolation frequency. As a pick-and-roll ballhandler, he scored an even better 1.18 PPP on 61% eFG. Even at 36, even with his injury history, Paul George can still score at a high level.
With the ball likely finding his hands in this lineup, George would have a quality roller, a reliable off-ball threat in White and two guys in Gonzalez and Walsh that are good off-the-catch shooters, but are even better at cutting into space and crashing the glass.
It’s the defensive possibilities that sell me on a lineup like this, but it would also present the opportunity to see some vintage PG-13 scoring.
Like me, the lineup analyzer adores the defensive potential of this lineup, but surprisingly it’s even higher on the offense. That 125.54 offensive rating is the highest of the three lineups presented here, and it definitely would imply a shooting return to form for White and an even better George-ran offense than advertised.
Conley-Harper Jr.-Scheierman-Hauser-Queta
With three guys that can handle the ball and four that can effectively fire shots from deep, this feels like the kind of lineup that offers a ship-steadying hand in Mike Conley while also encouraging guys like Harper Jr. and Scheierman to take command as go-to creators.
The jury’s still out on what kind of role Conley will have in his 20th season. Chances are it’ll be slightly smaller than his career-low 18.4 minutes per game in Minnesota last year, but even as the 38-year-old guard’s career enters its swan song, I’m still fascinated by the things he offers even as his production has declined.
He’s a true table-setter, he hardly ever turns the ball over, and he’s one of the smartest pick-and-roll guards of his era. He just gets the ball to the right spots. There’s not a selfish bone in his body.
This lineup opens the door for RHJ to create off the dribble, something we saw significantly with the Maine Celtics before he took on more of a 3-and-D role in Boston. Scheierman looked more and more comfortable as a connector as his second season wore on, capitalizing on a bigger role thanks to his efforts defensively and on the glass.
It’s a lineup that’d rely on one big to clean up the glass, and it seems more offensive-minded than defensive, but I look at this as one of many opportunities to foster growth and confidence in Boston’s deep group of wings.
Guys like Conley, Hauser and Queta have pretty established identities, but there’s still a little more to discover about Harper Jr. and Scheierman’s ceilings and what they can do with more opportunity.
With multiple scoring threats, an elite offensive rebounder and some quality defensive pieces, the lineup analyzer seems to have a modest opinion on these five together.
What are the non-Tatum lineups that you want to see? Comment below and let us know.
