Seemingly for the entirety of the 2025 stretch run, the NFL was waiting for the wheels to fall off the Chicago Bears’ wagon. Instead of following the usual script, they rode it all the way to an NFC North title and an NFC Divisional Round appearance.
That hasn’t stopped the pundits from predicting their downfall before the 2026 season has even begun.
In the aftermath of Thursday night’s schedule reveal, ESPN’s Dan Graziano took a stab at some quick reactions to a few key teams. On the question of whether
or not it was an overreaction to suggest the Bears might miss the playoffs, he said it’s “not an overreaction” to think that.
“In the long term,” he writes, “the arrow is definitely pointing up for the Johnson/Williams pairing — and there’s room for Williams to get even better. He finished 32nd out of 33 qualifying QBs in completion percentage (58.1%) last season and just 16th in QBR (58.2) even as he led the Bears to their first division title in seven years.
“But … the Bears have the hardest schedule in the NFL, based on the 2025 win/loss records of the teams they’ll play in 2026. And while that is certainly not the only indicator of schedule strength, history says it’s definitely not nothing. The last team to win a playoff game after entering the season with the hardest schedule by that metric was the 2016 Falcons. Over the past 10 seasons, seven of those teams missed the playoffs entirely.”
On one hand, you have to acknowledge the facts. We’ve seen this movie a lot in the NFL—assuming a team that had a surprise run one year will definitely push it even further the following season. Graziano makes that observation about the 2025 Washington Commanders, who never looked like the squad that went to the NFC Championship the previous season, even when Jayden Daniels was healthy.
To be sure, having to face both the teams that played in the Super Bowl in back-to-back weeks, including getting the defending champion Seattle Seahawks on the road, is no fun.
The Bears are fortunate to have significant continuity on offense (minus turnover at left tackle and center and the DJ Moore trade) with Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams leading the way for the foreseeable future. But that defense didn’t do much to improve. Plus, one could argue the luck regression from all those comeback victories in 2025 could certainly hit hard this year.
Also, they’re not going to surprise anyone in the NFC North again. Detroit beat them twice last year. Green Bay will likely be extremely salty about how those last two games went at Soldier Field in 2025 and want revenge. Plus, the Minnesota Vikings got themselves an actual quarterback, so they might be more of a problem this time around—and those two games against them were no cakewalks, either.
But it really comes down to this: the Chicago Bears are not the Bears of yesteryear. They’re tough. They want all the smoke. And they know how to perform in gotta-have-it situations these days. They proved it time and again last year, and it’s hard to think they’ll suddenly become a bad clutch team even if they don’t break their franchise record for cardiac wins this time around.
So while the Bears likely won’t romp through the NFC, let’s pump the brakes on them missing the playoffs. Because if last year taught us anything, it’s that you never bet against the Chicago Bears.
Well, not anymore.
