The Atlanta Braves were not able to get a sweep of the reigning AL champion Toronto Blue Jays yesterday, but they did win the series and look to take that momentum into the weekend series against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The Pirates are having somewhat of a surprising season this year with a .540 record, and a run differential of plus thirty-seven. They had Paul Skenes to build off of and went and added some bats in the off-season, but it would be hard for someone with a straight face to say they predicted
this outcome so far this season.
Martín Pérez will be taking on the Pirates offense that has currently scored only four less runs than the Braves ranking them fourth in MLB. Unfortunately for Pérez, he has not faced many of these hitters much in his career. He has only seen six of the hitters on the Pirates’ current roster and none of them have more than nine at-bats against him. Brandon Lowe has those nine at-bats and Pérez has struggled a bit allowing a .333 average and .788 OPS against him. Old friend Marcell Ozuna has seven at-bats and has definitely had the edge in the matchup with a .571 average and 1.700 OPS.
On paper Pérez has been fantastic this year and has been way better than likely most expected with an ERA of 2.79. If his season ended today, that would be his best ERA in a season in his career. His strikeout rate of 20.5 would be his second best in a season. For his career he has averaged 16.5 percent. Interestingly, he has been able to do all of this with a fastball that averages 90.0 MPH, which is unheard of in today’s game.
The down side for Pérez is that his ERA is likely unsustainable. Players are hitting the ball hard against him 42.0 percent of the time which is far higher than his career 36.1 percent and ranks in the bottom 29.0 percent of MLB. He has also been aided by a BABIP against of .226 and a strand rate of 84.4 percent. All of this combined shows his expected ERA (xERA) to be 4.34. This xERA is not terrible for a fifth starter. In fact, it is the best he has had in a season since 2022. However, it is important to note that regression is likely coming and he is facing a potent offense tonight.
The Pirates will bring Mitch Keller to the mound that some would say has been an underrated pitcher for most of his career. He is not elite by any means, but he has gotten the job done many times and has been a steady arm for the Pirates for years.
Coming into this game Keller sports an ERA of 4.35, and a what is interesting is his xERA is almost exactly the same at 4.36. Basically, what you see is what you get with him. In 2024 he had the exact same ERA and xERA.
The Braves as a team have faced Keller quite a bit. Eight different players have faced him between eight and nineteen times. Of these players, the Braves core lineup has mostly had great success. Ronald Acuña has nineteen at-bats against Keller and has three HRs and 1.371 OPS in that span against him. Matt Olson has the exact same OPS as Acuña against Keller in twelve at-bats, and Austin Riley has an OPS of 1.055 in ten at-bats against him. Mauricio Dubón has also had success in ten at-bats with a .400 average and .955 OPS.
Michael Harris has struggled to a .500 OPS, and Ha-Seong Kim is hitless in eleven at-bats.
The key for the Braves today will be to get to the Pirates bullpen as soon as they can because their bullpen is a clear weakness with an ERA of 4.29, which is in the bottom twelve teams in MLB.
First pitch is at 7:15 EDT.
Game Info
Game Time: Friday, June 5th, 7:15 pm EDT
Location: Truist Park, , Atlanta, GA
Watch: BravesVision
Radio/Audio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan
