The Bills survived Houston. They got 96 hours to fix everything that almost got them beat before Josh Allen and company make their first official appearance at the new Highmark Stadium against a Lions team that just needed overtime to put away the Saints. Buffalo’s 36-31 win over the Texans was one of the most entertaining openers in recent memory, but despite the win, there are some real issues that Detroit can take advantage of on a short week. Here are three Bills on fire, three that can do better,
and how each of them fits into Thursday night.
Heroes:
Josh Allen, QB
Allen was the engine of this offense in Week 1, and he’ll need to be again against a Lions team capable of turning this into a track meet. He finished 20-of-29 for 334 yards and two touchdowns, adding 23 rushing yards and two more scores on the ground — 357 total yards and four total touchdowns against a Texans defense that led the NFL in EPA per play, success rate, and yards per play a year ago. According to PFF, Allen posted a 69.7 passing grade with an 8.8% big-time-throw rate and a completion percentage 14.3 points above expectation, ranking fourth among all quarterbacks in EPA per play for the week. A big-time performance against a big-time opponent.
The Lions needed overtime to beat New Orleans, with Jared Goff throwing for 206 yards and two scores and Jahmyr Gibbs running for 156 yards and two touchdowns on his own. If this turns into the shootout it has the potential to be, Buffalo’s margin for error shrinks to whatever Allen can create. He’s proven he can carry a game by himself. He might need to again.
Dalton Kincaid, TE
Kincaid was the biggest beneficiary of Allen’s big game, and if he stays healthy, Joe Brady certainly plans to make him one of the most dangerous mismatches in the league. He caught five of six targets for a career-high 130 yards, tying Khalil Shakir for second on the team in targets behind only DJ Moore. PFF gave him a 91.2 overall grade and a 91.6 receiving grade, both first among all tight ends in Week 1, to go with 5.91 yards per route run and two broken tackles after the catch. His 38-yard grab from his own end zone had just a 9.4% completion probability, per Next Gen Stats — officially the most improbable catch of the entire weekend.
Brady has already shown he can increase Kincaid’s snaps by using him as a big receiver sometimes, in the role we used to see Tyrell Shavers last year, rather than a traditional in-line tight end, which lets him stay on the field without sacrificing what Dawson Knox and Jackson Hawes bring as blockers. Detroit’s front seven is strong, but its safety group is banged up without starters Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, and this offense is going to test the over-the-middle area of the field regardless of who’s healthy. Kincaid can be up for another big game.
Deone Walker, DT
The second-year defensive tackle looks like he’s about to establish himself as one of the more disruptive young interior players in the league, and Thursday is about as good an opportunity as he’ll get all season. He generated two total pressures (one sack, one hurry) with three solo tackles, and PFF credited him with an 85.3 pass-rush grade that ranked third among 106 qualified interior linemen in Week 1 — on the heels of a rookie season in which PFF graded his pass-rush at 78.3 with 20 pressures on 283 snaps, naming him a breakout candidate for 2026. His most important play might have been the least statistical one: a red zone sack of C.J. Stroud with 16 seconds left that forced Houston’s final timeout and helped set up Greg Rousseau’s game-sealing strip sack.
Detroit’s own injury report has them down two starting offensive linemen for Thursday — right tackle Blake Miller (knee) and left guard Christian Mahogany (hip) are both out, with center Cade Mays already on injured reserve. That’s Larry Borom and Ben Bartch filling in around a banged-up Juice Scruggs. Walker should live in that backfield, both collapsing running lanes for Jahmyr Gibbs and putting Jared Goff on the move before he wants to be.
Head-Scratchers:
Ed Oliver, DT
Oliver wasn’t bad. He finished with five tackles and a fumble recovery on Houston’s opening drive, and everyone in that building knows what it takes for him to even be out there after the personal tragedy he’s gone through this offseason. None of that changes what the defense needs from its most established interior presence going forward — more than flashes. PFF graded him at a 54.9 overall, with a 61.2 pass-rush grade and a 48.8 run-defense grade, generating just two total pressures (one QB hit, one hurry, zero sacks) — modest numbers for the player who’s supposed to anchor this interior.
That’s exactly what makes Thursday a real opportunity. Facing a patchwork interior with backups settling in next to a hobbled Scruggs, this is the week for Oliver to live in Detroit’s backfield and make Goff’s life uncomfortable before he can get the ball out to his playmakers.
Damar Hamlin, S
With Cole Bishop officially questionable (knee/groin) for Thursday, Hamlin’s role in Jim Leonhard’s defense could grow, and that’s a real concern. He played a notable number of snaps in that dime package against Houston, and PFF’s numbers back up the eye test: a 41.1 overall grade, a 49.5 coverage grade, and a 60.0 run-defense grade, all bottom-tier among qualified safeties. He allowed a 100.0 passer rating on his lone target in coverage. He’s shown, again, that he’s slow-footed and a liability in man coverage.
That’s a brutal profile to bring into a game against this specific group. Amon-Ra St. Brown posted a 99th-percentile ESPN OPEN score and a 98th-percentile PFF route grade last season, and according to FantasyPros’ Week 1 usage report, he opened 2026 with a team-high 14 targets, a game-high 95% route participation rate, and two touchdowns in the win over New Orleans. Jameson Williams led the NFL in plays of 20-plus mph with the ball in his hands back in 2024, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and he’s continued to show documented in-game speeds north of 21 mph since. Sam LaPorta adds size and red zone gravity underneath. If Hamlin is on the field in a significant role, Leonhard needs to be smart about how he uses him, because this Lions offense will find the weak link.
Dee Alford, CB
Alford ended the game fine, with a couple of coverage plays down the stretch that mattered. That doesn’t erase one of the rougher debuts of the week for a Bills defender (51.8 PFF overall grade, 52.4 in coverage, 54.6 against the run). He and Maxwell Hairston got their signals crossed on a blown coverage that nearly cost Buffalo the game outright, and he was beaten for a 20-yard third-down conversion to Xavier Hutchinson in the fourth quarter. It wasn’t an isolated moment — he looked lost for stretches in his first game as a Bill after signing a three-year, $21 million free-agent deal this offseason to be one of the veteran leaders of this defensive backfield.
Detroit runs arguably the best slot receiver in football in Amon-Ra St. Brown, who lines up in exactly the space Alford is responsible for. The former Falcon needs to be at the top of his game Thursday, because this secondary will need to survive a very tough matchup so the offense can lead the way again.
Honorable Mentions
Trending Up:
- Greg Rousseau (OLB) — Two sacks, two forced fumbles, five quarterback hits, and a game-sealing strip sack of Stroud with 16 seconds left. PFF’s 84.5 grade was the second-highest on the entire Bills roster.
- DJ Moore (WR) — Five catches for 100 yards and a 43-yard touchdown in his first game in a Bills uniform, good for a 79.0 PFF grade, third-best on the team.
Trending Down:
- Christian Benford (CB) — Beaten routinely by Nico Collins throughout the afternoon, finishing with eight catches allowed on 85 yards and a 38.7 PFF grade, third-worst on the roster.
- James Cook (RB) — Just 13 carries for 57 yards and three catches for 12 yards, with Allen doing most of the offensive heavy lifting. Per PFF, Buffalo’s ground game as a whole averaged -0.260 EPA per rush and a 40% success rate against Houston’s front — numbers Cook and this offensive line need to correct.
Catch up on all this and more with the latest edition of Leading the Charge!
