For the second year in a row, here is an off-season guide to get every reader prepared for the winter ahead.
There will be a few changes this time around. I’m proud of the overall work I did with the 2024-25 guide and was able to do a guest appearance on Hittin’ Season. However, I missed the mark on specific write-ups that should be better this time around.
There is also a name change. This is not the Phillies’ off-season guide but TheGoodPhight’s. This gives me more leeway to add more free agent and
trade target write-ups since I don’t have to focus on only what works for the Phillies.
*The specific stuff about the team this site covers will be labeled.
With the nature of the off-season, there will be misses. The Phillies might (probably will) acquire a player that’s not in the guide but this new strategy theoretically lowers that chance.
Now, on to the guide.
2027 CBA
The five-season Collective Bargaining Agreement between the MLB Players Association (MLBPA) and MLB Owners/Rob Manfred will expire on December 1, 2026. There will be a lockout unless a new deal is finalized before then.
Given that Manfred has said lockouts are “actually a positive”, it is safe to assume there will be another one this time around.
Additionally, there is a chance that a 2026-27 lockout will run longer than the last one, significantly longer. Baltimore Orioles owner David Rubenstein publicly supported a salary cap for Major League Baseball and Jeff Passan wrote back in September that owners haven’t decided whether or not they’ll make the biggest push for a cap they’ve made since 1994.
There is a chance baseball won’t be on summer televisions in 2027 and maybe even longer if the owners push for a hard cap. Maybe none of that happens and we see a full season in 2027. No one knows.
While the current CBA doesn’t expire until the end of next season, it’s still a looming presence this off-season. Will players sign extensions to gain more financial security before a new CBA? Will owners collectively spend less because there might be fewer games in 2027? How much are teams weighing the future potential of an NFL-style salary cap, an NBA-style cap, or something as harsh as the NHL’s? It impacts everyone.
40-Man Roster and Rule 5 protections (Phillies)
The Phillies 40-man roster currently sits at 30 players but that comes with even more flexibility than the eight spots left.
As of writing this, Nick Castellanos has not been released or traded so the 40-man roster can see some reshuffling. There are also a few other players who might be DFA candidates.
Weston Wilson has 0 minor league options left and did not solidify himself as part of the outfield configuration. He had an 81 wRC+ and -0.4 fWAR in 2025 but has flashed platoon upside in the past. Maybe there is a small trade there? Maybe not.
Alan Rangel has a minor league option but might not have much use on the roster. There are a few other internal starter depth options available to the Phillies and he doesn’t have the stuff to be a reliever. If the Phillies need a spot, Rangel might not be safe.
Garrett Stubbs spent the first five months of the season in AAA before being one of their two September call-ups. He is a fantastic locker-room presence and solid backup catcher but Rafael Marchán has more defensive upside and no options left. He is set for arbitration and is a non-tender candidate.
Michael Mercado has a minor league option left and an interesting profile with a high-velocity fastball from the right side but also has an 11.81 ERA in 16 major league innings between 2024 and 25.
The Phillies have plenty of spots to protect the right minor leaguers but also have a history of under protecting. A great example of this is when they left Eiberson Castellano unprotected last year, he was drafted by the Minnesota Twins and was sent back to the Phillies after spring training.
Andrew Painter will get a deeper write-up later and will be protected from the rule-5. No questions need to be asked.
Gabriel Rincones Jr. had a fantastic spring training and was sent to AAA right away. He wasn’t awful in 506 plate appearances there but not good enough to become a serious call-up at any point in the season. He had a 113 wRC+ for Lehigh Valley with drastic platoon splits and a questionable corner outfield glove.
Alex McFarlane has the stuff and profile to transition into a reliever role and there will be added pressure to if/when he is protected. The Phillies current right-handed relief crop on the 40-man goes Jhoan Duran, Orion Kerkering, Daniel Robert, Max Lazar, Seth Johnson, Nolan Hoffman, and Michael Mercado. McFarlane could gain plenty of ground with a good camp.
Griff McGarry was left unprotected last year and was not selected in the rule-5, a significant fall from grace as a prospect. In 2025, he became a starter again in AA Reading and put up a 3.25 ERA in 17 starts. His 18th came in AAA and potentially made him a lot of money if protected. He struck out 8 in 5 innings while only allowing one run. Far from a top prospect but a nice bounce back story.
Saul Teran might not get protected but is a name worth mentioning. In 48.1 innings between three different levels, Teran put up a 1.30 ERA with a K-BB% of 21.5%. That’s worth a mention.
Top Prospects (Phillies)
There is no true-ranking for these players but they are all considered the best prospects in the Phillies organization.
Andrew Painter’s first season after not pitching for two straight seasons because of Tommy John Surgery was a bumpy ride. His command wasn’t good, he ran into bad innings, was facing AAA hitters for the first time ever, and was not ready to pitch 118 inning.
But he pitched 118 innings and stayed healthy. He had a 5.26 ERA overall but showed enough flashes to feel very good about. A healthy off-season for the first time in two years could really help him.
Aidan Miller was promoted to AA at the end of the 2024 season and spent the majority of 2025 there as Reading’s shortstop. He struggled with strikeouts and power for a majority of the season but found his footing in August. He was so hot, he was promoted to AAA in mid-September and kept on hitting for a few games.
What also came was improved defense at shortstop and remarkable strides as a base runner. He was not projected to be a massive threat on the base paths coming into the draft but swiped 59 bags in 2025.
Justin Crawford has an ugly swing and might not be a good enough defensive CFer right away but all he’s done in the minor leagues is produce. He has nothing left to prove down there.
Given the swing issues, plate discipline issues, probable BABIP regression in the majors, and power concerns, it would really benefit the Phillies to have Crawford in CF. The defensive issues and potential for Harrison Bader to return might slide Crawford to a corner spot, where there would be more pressure to produce offense right away.
If this sounds like I’m handing Crawford a spot on the roster, it might be because they almost have to.
Aroon Escobar has some positional questions and his bat didn’t pop as much in Jersey Shore as you would like but he still looks like one of the best hitting prospects in the Phillies system. He was great in Clearwater, solid for Jersey Shore, and played five games at the end of the season in Reading.
There is a chance Escobar is a trade candidate this winter but the Phillies are running low on position player prospects after trading Eduardo Tait. It’s a tough call with him.
Gage Wood was picked in the first round of the 2025 draft and carries a lot of traits to love in a modern day starting pitcher. His four-seam fastball has plus velocity and carry and a snappy curveball that will play in the big leagues. He also needs to develop a lot around it.
In his only professional outing of 2025, the Phillies gave him a sinker and cutter to go along with his four-seam fastball, curveball, and slider. He might also need some type of changeup down the line, especially if some of those pitches don’t stick.
Dante Nori is rising through the system fast as a left-handed outfielder. He has a plus eye, bat-to-ball skills, speed, and should be a solid defender at all three positions.
In 125 games, Nori stole 52 bases, walked 13.0% of the time, and had a strikeout rate of 14.7%. He is not big and will almost certainly not hit for any consistent power at higher levels which gives him a very low ceiling.
However, he’s only 21 years old and will likely start in AA Reading next year which is a great sign no matter the profile.
Arbitration (Phillies)
After players hit three years of big league service (or slightly over two if they qualify as a super-two), the next step in team control is through arbitration. Each player gets to argue how much they’re worth against the team. I’m sure these situations have never caused drama within an organization or locker room.
The deadline for teams to tender a contract to each player is November 21, 2025.
Here are MLB Trade Rumors Arbitration projections for the Phillies:
- Jesus Luzardo: $10.4 million
- Alec Bohm: $10.3 million
- Jhoan Duran: $7.6 million
- Bryson Stott: $5.8 million
- Brandon Marsh: $4.5 million
- Edmundo Sosa: $3.9 million
- Tanner Banks: $1.2 million
- Rafael Marchan: $1 million
- Garrett Stubbs: $925k
There is no Austin Hays with this group where you can free up a few million and not think twice about it. Garrett Stubbs is a clear non-tender candidate but he’s projected for less than a million dollars.
It’s very hard to imagine non-tendering Alec Bohm but he’s a prime early trade candidate. The Phillies might want to jump a trade quickly before calculating an extra ten million to their budget. It probably doesn’t matter either way but still worth a mention.
Qualifying Offer
The qualifying offer (QO) works as a tag team put on certain players before they hit free agency. Players can test the market before deciding whether or not they want to stay there or sign a one-year contract for the mean of the 125 highest-paid MLB players.
Yes, I am aware some of this stuff has happened but the summary is still warranted.
Teams have until five days after the World Series ends to offer the QO to players. Players have until November 18 to decide whether or not they’ll sign the contract.
If the player doesn’t re-sign, that team gets draft compensation and international bonus pool money back. The team signing a QO player gives up draft capital as well.
The compensation and bonus pool money depend on the team’s positioning with the luxury tax. For example, the Phillies will only get a fourth-round pick back for one of their QO’d free agents because they’re going to be over the competitive balance tax. A team below the tax gets back second and fifth round picks.
Here are the players who were extended the QO, as of this writing, none of them have accepted.
- Kyle Tucker
- Kyle Schwarber
- Ranger Suárez
- Framber Valdez
- Bo Bichette
- Dylan Cease
- Trent Grisham
- Gleyber Torres
- Edwin Díaz
- Brandon Woodruff
- Zac Gallen
- Shota Imanaga
- Michael King
Team Payroll (Phillies)
According to Cots Contracts, the Phillies Competitive Balance Tax payroll currently sits at $254,326,238 which is already over the first tier of the luxury tax.
The second tier of the luxury tax is set for $264 million and only requires money out of the owners pockets as a penalty. The third tier is set for $284 million which requires the team to have their first round pick moved back ten spots in the first-year player draft.
If the Phillies carry a payroll of roughly $310 million like in 2025, Dave Dombrowski and the club have about $55,673,762 left for free agents, assuming there is no money coming off the payroll.
Free Agent Outfielder
Kyle Tucker (29): 136 games, .266/.377/.464, 22 home runs, 4.5 fWAR
Someone is going to pay Kyle Tucker a premium to be their starting right fielder forever… or at least until baseball no longer exists if the CBA doesn’t go well.
The two big knocks on Tucker are that he’s struggled staying healthy the last two seasons and his defense in right field wasn’t as good.
Outside of that, Tucker is one of the unique hitters with a high degree of power, contact, and approach. Not many other players exist with all three elite traits but he’s the exception.
Cody Bellinger (30): 151 games, .272/.334/.480, 29 home runs, 4.9 fWAR
Cody Bellinger has had a weird career. He was the Dodgers young superstar but turned into a pumpkin at the plate his final three years there. He signed with the Cubs and completely changed his approach to make more contact.
After a weird 2024, he found a new gear with the Yankees and their short porch in right field.
Bellinger’s home and away splits are undeniable and his swing is built for Yankee stadium but they’re not the only stadium with an advantageous right field. His bat-to-ball skills also give him a higher floor than most pull-happy left handed hitters.
Harrison Bader and Trent Grisham
Bader (32): 146 games, .277/.347/.449, 17 home runs, 3.2 fWAR
Grisham (29): 143 games, .235/.348/.464, 34 home runs, 3.2 fWAR
Both center fielders are looking for paydays this winter and could warrant them despite their red flags.
Bader’s big case is that he changed his approach to utilize more pull-side power. The problem is that he made those changes as a Met. His flyball rate is actually lower than 2024, his pull rate is lower, and his pull air rate is only .2% higher than 2024. He also carried the exact same average exit velocity from a year ago.
He struck out 5.4% more and a 4.5% whiff rate decline but it all came together with a .359 BABIP. Bader did swing harder and increased his walk-rate by 3% but there are a lot of red flags here.
Grisham had the best season of his career, is only 29 years old, and doesn’t carry viability concerns from a batted ball standpoint. However, he had a 94 OPS+ in the previous six seasons of his career.
Austin Hays, Miguel Andujar, Starling Marte, and Rob Refsnyder
Hays (30): 103 games, .266/.315/.453, 15 home runs, 1.2 fWAR
Andujar (30): 94 games, .318/.352/.470, 10 home runs, 1.1 fWAR
Marte (37), 98 games, .270/.335/.410, 9 home runs, 0.7 fWAR
Refsnyder (34): 70 games, .269/.354/.484, 9 home runs, 1.0 fWAR
Corner outfield lefty mashers.
Hays put together a fine season with the Reds and improved defensively from his time in Philadelphia. He’s not unplayable against right handed pitchers but should be avoided. He had just a .285 xwOBA against right handed pitchers last season.
Against southpaws however, Hays hit .319 with a .949 OPS. That can play on a lot of teams.
Andujar played 32 games at third base, 29 in left, and three at both first base in right field. His best position is probably as a left fielder in a 10th man type of capacity.
He is not a 125 wRC+ hitter, especially when you look at the advanced metrics but he does put the ball in play a lot and has generally been someone who can overperform his projected numbers. He hit .389 with a .986 OPS against southpaws but held his own against righties.
Marte only played 12 games in the outfield last season but put together a solid season at the plate as a part-time DH. He carried reverse splits this year but has crushed left-handed pitching in the past.
Given how left-handed certain lineups can get against right-handed pitching, Marte could be a valuable veteran bench bat if you want something more than just a platoon/timeshare DH.
Refsnyder is the most “platoon-y” of the bunch but gets it done against southpaws. He hit .302 with a .959 OPS against left handed pitchers but shouldn’t be in the lineup very often against righties.
Mike Yastrzemski, Max Kepler, and Cedric Mullins
Yastrzemski (35): 147 games, .233/.333/.403, 17 home runs, 2.4 fWAR
Kepler (33): 127 games, .216/.300/.391, 18 home runs, 0.6 fWAR
Mullins (31): 133 games, .216/.299/.391, 17 home runs, 1.3 fWAR
One-year deal caliber left handed outfielders.
Yastrzemski looked like a solid but not great right fielder with the Giants for 96 games. He was a below league-average hitter but still a solid defender but turned it on after getting traded to the Royals. Given Yastrzemski’s track record and age, teams will be interested but only to a certain degree.
Kepler signed with the Philadelphia Phillies to be an everyday player (which they gave up on in a month) and to play left field (which they gave up on after the trade deadline). He didn’t quite live up to the one-year deal with this plan.
But from August 1 to the end of the season, Kepler moved back to right field and was platooned with Nick Castellanos. In that span, he hit .250 with a .791 OPS and hit 7 dingers while still looking like a solid defensive option in right field.
Cedric Mullins faced a lot of batted ball data questions as a hitter with Baltimore but still put up a .738 OPS with improved defense in center field. After getting traded to the Mets, his offense completely fell off a cliff. New York isn’t super disappointed with him leaving.
Lane Thomas (30): 39 games, .160/.246/.272, 4 home runs, -0.5 fWAR
Thomas could be a buy-low option coming off an injury-riddled 2025 season but in a different role than he was with Cleveland. They tried making him a center fielder and it just doesn’t work defensively. He put up solid seasons with the Nationals but that isn’t going to get him more than a cheap one-year contract.
Designated Hitters:
Kyle Schwarber (33): 162 games, .240/.365/.563, 56 home runs, 4.9 fWAR
Schwarber’s impact as a hitter is almost impossible to replace, even as a designated hitter. Since the start of 2024, the only DH with more fWAR is Shohei Ohtani and the only DHs with a higher wRC+ are Ohtani, Rafael Devers, and Yordan Alvarez.
He’s one of the rare hitters that change a lineup and those player are getting increasingly more valuable with where most of the league is offensively.
None of this accounts for the leadership and intangibles Schwarber brings to whichever team he joins. It’s not just his impact when he joins, it’s the fall teams have had when he’s left. The Cubs and Red Sox didn’t make it back to the playoffs until this season.
Free Agent Catchers
JT Realmuto (35): 134 games, .257/.315/.384, 12 home runs, 2.1 fWAR
Realmuto is not the same player as he was the first time he hit free agency but will still carry plenty of suitors. His framing concerns won’t be as alarming with the new challenge system coming and he caught 134 games last season.
His athleticism and late introduction to the position have allowed him to age gracefully so far but can Realmuto keep even being a two-win caliber player and for how long?
Danny Jansen (31): 98 games, .215/.321/.399, 14 home runs, 1.3 fWAR
Compared to Realmuto, Jansen was the better hitter and comparable defender, despite his own framing concerns, but he’s awful at holding the running game and hasn’t caught more than 100 games since 2019. He’s a part-time player, even for the position, at this point in his career.
Victor Caratini (32): 114 games, .259/.324/.404, 12 home runs, 0.8 fWAR
Cartini hit better than both Realmuto and Jansen but only caught 49 games this year while DHing for 30 and playing first base in 15.
You’re all seeing why this isn’t a great class.
Free Agent Infielder
Bo Bichette (28): 139 games, .311/.357/.483, 18 home runs, 3.8 fWAR
After hitting just .225 with a 70 wRC+ in 2024, Bichette returned with a lot to prove and proved he’s still a one of the better middle infielders in the sport. When you look into the batted ball data, it proves just how much of an outlier 2024 was.
At 28 years old, he’s not far enough into his prime to scare teams off and can hit anywhere in a lineup. Top, middle, or bottom (he won’t hit there most likely).
The biggest question will be his position defensively, he had -13 Outs Above Average at shortstop this past season which makes him a candidate to move to either second or third base next season. He doesn’t have a good defensive reputation in past years either.
Eugenio Suárez (34): 159 games, .228/.298/.526, 49 home runs, 3.8 fWAR
Suárez’s game-changing power was on full display in 2025 with a 125 wRC+ despite having an on-base percentage below .300.
That will be a concern; his age will be another, especially since his game relies on pure power, and if he can still play third base going forward. He had -5 outs above average there and is only getting older.
Pete Alonso (31): 162 games, .272/.347/.524, 38 home runs, 3.6 fWAR
After a mediocre 2024 season, Alonso re-signed with the Mets on a three-year contract with opt-outs, exercising one after the first year due to his career-high xwOBA. He will once again try to land a massive contract but because of his age and history of declining first baseman, he might be in a similar spot once again.
But on a short-term deal, Alonso should still stand to make plenty of money. He’s played 162 games in back to back seasons, never playing less than 152 in his entire career, and is one of the best middle of the order right handed hitters in the sport. It’s just hard to imagine that’s the kind of deal he’s looking for.
Alex Bregman (32): 114 games, .273/.360/.462, 18 home runs, 3.5 fWAR
Bregman is another Boras client trying to re-test the market in 2025 after signing a three-year contact with opt-outs. Despite being 32, it’s not hard to imagine a team falling in-love with the star third baseman.
Bregman’s floor is high enough to be comfortable, giving him five or six years. His strong combination of bat-to-ball skills and ability to pull the baseball still gives him a big ceiling. His swing is a bit ballpark-dependent because he doesn’t have plenty of raw power. (Citizens Bank Park would be fine for him)
Josh Naylor (29): 147 games, .295/.353/.462, 20 home runs, 3.1 fWAR
Naylor made some changes to his game that might help him secure a payday. He cut his swing down, sacrificing raw power in the process to make more contact. He cut an already low strikeout rate down nearly 3% and he saw a 52 point increase in his batting average.
There could be questions about how teams see these changes but since he’s turning 29 next season, Naylor should have a market since there are still plenty of prime years remaining.
Ryan O’Hearn (32): 144 games, .281/.366/.437, 17 home runs, 3.0 fWAR
Since joining the Baltimore Orioles in 2023, Ryan O’Hearn has a 122 OPS+ in 1406 plate appearances. He completely turned his career around after a mostly miserable five seasons with the Kansas City Royals.
O’Hearn has mostly been a platoon player with Baltimore, only a combined 73 plate appearances against left handed pitching in 2023 and 24. However, he was way more chances to prove he could hit left handed pitching in 2025 and showed encouraging signs.
In 109 plate appearances against left handed pitching this past season, O’Hearn hit .278 with a .832 OPS. He might get offers to be an everyday player this free agency.
Jorge Polanco (32): 138 games, .265/.326/.495, 26 home runs, 2.6 fWAR
After a miserable first season with the Seattle Mariners in 2024, he re-signed on a prove-it deal and he sure did prove himself. Polanco cut his strikeout rate down 13.6% and increased his home run total from 16 to 26. He hit the ball harder, got on base more, and will turn it into more money this time around.
The big question Polanco faces is his defensive fit. He was a DH for 88 games this season and only played second base in 38. His defense at second base wasn’t good either.
Luis Arraez (29): 154 games, .292/.327/.392, 8 home runs, 0.9 fWAR
Luis Arraez is cool and everyone should know it. To have that kind of bat to ball skill in an era where pitchers throw harder than ever, throw nastier breaking balls than ever, and have more detailed game plans than ever in getting a hitter to strikeout. Arraez ignores all of that and still manages to put the ball in play as much as humanly possible.
But at 29, Arraez’s market is very tricky to navigate. He has not been the same hitter since getting traded to the Padres. Maybe some of it is playing in that ballpark but some of it might also be because he makes too much contact on bad pitches.
He also might’ve been a bit unlucky in 2025, his BABIP went down by 35 points and most projections expect that to bounce back.
Arraez also doesn’t have a good defensive position and doesn’t hit for the prototypical power a first baseman or DH should.
Rhys Hoskins, Ty France, and Paul Goldschmidt
Hoskins (33): 90 games, .237/.332/.416, 12 home runs, 0.9 fWAR
France (31): 138 games, .257/.320/.360, 7 home runs, 0.9 fWAR
Goldschmidt (38): 146 games, .274/.328/.403, 10 home runs, 0.8 fWAR
Veteran first baseman who probably sign a one-year deal.
Hoskins just hasn’t been the same player since he tore his ACL in 2023. He went from a two-ish win, 120-125 wRC+ caliber first baseman who was up for a multi-year agreement with someone.
But in his two years with the Brewers, Hoskins hit just .223 with a 102 OPS+ and didn’t even make their postseason roster.
He still hits the ball hard and draws walks but the offensive player he used to be just doesn’t seem to be there anymore.
France might be an interesting buy-low candidate if you believe in his projected stats from 2025. His xwOBA ranked in the 58th percentile and his xSLG was 79 points higher than his actual slug. He did this while playing an extremely impressive first base defensively.
Goldschmidt might make for an interesting platoon option if he’s ok with that. He hit .336 with a .981 OPS against left handed pitching last season but was unplayable against righties. He’s also as smart of a hitter as they get and that might make for a great locker room presence with the right team.
Yoán Moncada (31): 84 games, .234/.336/.448, 12 home runs, 0.7 fWAR
Moncada will be an interesting target as a strong-side platoon option at either DH or a new position. He has -13 Outs Above Average at third base and only played a little over half a season. Moncada is just not a third baseman anymore.
The Angels hid him against left-handed pitching but he crushed righties, hitting .240 with a .815 OPS.
Maybe there’s a Moncada-Goldschmidt platoon idea for a team?
Adam Frazier, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Willie Castro, and Amed Rosario
Frazier (34): 134 games, .267/.319/.365, 7 home runs, 0.7 fWAR
Kiner-Falefa (31): 138 games, .262/.297/.334, 2 home runs, 0.7 fWAR
Castro (29): 120 games, .226/.313/.366, 11 home runs, 0.5 fWAR
Rosario (30): 63 games, .276/.309/.436, 6 home runs, 0.4 fWAR
Veteran utility infielders.
Frazier bounced back from his 2024 season but there aren’t a lot of indications it’s sustainable. The only big change in his metrics is a 67 point increase in his BABIP. So, it’s hard to imagine a team signing him to be more than a bench option.
But Frazier four positions last year, 79 games at second base, 32 games in left field, 11 games in right, and another 7 at third base. That’s the definition of a utility player.
Kiner-Falefa is no longer a viable everyday shortstop at this point in his career but the Blue Jays put him in a more viable role after acquiring him at the trade deadline.
He still carries a strong reputation with his glove, although his shortstop defense has declined in recent years, but can still be a veteran that plays third, short, and second base well.
Castro is the youngest of the four players mentioned here but doesn’t play any position well defensively and is much better against lefties than righties. He can pull fly balls though.
Rosario hit .302 with a .819 OPS against left handed pitching last season while playing 33 games at third base, 17 at second, 6 in right field, and even a game at shortstop. What else is there to say?
Ha-Seong Kim (30): 48 games, .234/.304/.345, 5 home runs, 0.3 fWAR.
Kim signed with the Tampa Bay Rays on a two-year deal with a player option after year one and didn’t play until July because he underwent right shoulder surgery. In 24 games with the Rays, Kim hit just .214 with a .612 OPS while looking like a bad shortstop defensively.
Despite all of the warning signs, the Atlanta Braves claimed him off waivers because they had no other plan at shortstop. He hit much better there but still carried an OPS below .700 while playing bad defense. After all of that, Kim made the confusing call of declining his 16 million dollar player option.
Kim might not be a shortstop anymore and doesn’t hit enough to play many other positions. I can’t believe the Braves got away with this again.
Free Agent Starting Pitchers
Ranger Suárez (30): 26 starts, 157.1 innings, 3.20 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 23.2% K%, 5.8% BB%, 4.0 fWAR
Among pitchers with at least 150 innings in 2025, Ranger ranked 16th in ERA, 10th in FIP, and 11th in fWAR. He was able to prove his 2024 success wasn’t a fluke but once again failed to make 30 starts in a season.
Given the Phillies rotation with Cristopher Sánchez, Jesus Luzardo, Aaron Nola, eventually Zack Wheeler, and top prospect Andrew Painter, it’s a bit easier for the Phillies to let a pitcher like Suárez go.
What the 29 other teams have to figure out is whether a pitcher like Suárez will perform well on his next deal. He has never made more than 29 starts in a season but has never made less than 22 since becoming a full-time starter.
He is also not the modern-day, high velocity pitcher. Suárez is great because he has some of the best command in baseball, a deep arsenal, and is able to limit hard contact as good as anyone.
However, his fastball only averages 90.5 mph, can he sustain success in his mid and late 30s if there is a slight velocity drop?
Framber Valdez (32): 31 starts, 192 innings, 3.66 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 23.3 K%, 8.5% BB%, 4.0 fWAR
Framber Valdez is as good at getting ground balls as any pitcher is in the sport. He has never had a GB% worse than the 91st percentile and even that season was a negative outlier. He might also benefit from getting out of Houston’s right-handed hitter favored stadium.
But there are issues, his strikeout rate has declined each of the last two seasons and he allows a ton of hard contact. It’s better being on the ground than in the air but still isn’t a great trend for a pitcher who turns 32 next season.
Dylan Cease (30): 32 starts, 168 innings, 4.55 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 29.8% K%, 9.8% BB%, 3.4 fWAR
Cease seemed like the prime candidate to be the highest paid pitcher of the 2025 off-season six months ago. He might still get there but it will have to take a team who is not buying what happened in 2025.
There are a lot of points in Cease’s favor, he makes starts, gets a ton of swing and miss, and could be a prime bounce back candidate. He also did not sustain his command success from 2024, seeing his walk rate jump 1.3%, and pitched 23.1 less innings than in 2024.
Merrill Kelly (37): 32 starts, 184.0 innings, 3.52 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 22.3% K%, 6.4% BB%, 3.1 fWAR
After only making 13 starts in 2024, Kelly returned with a strong season splitting time between Arizona and Texas. He is not flashy but can keep hitters off balance and put together solid results. He’s a classic number three starter who might earn a payday even at his age.
Chris Bassitt (37): 31 starts, 170.1 innings, 3.96 ERA, 4.01 FIP, 22.6% K%, 7.1% BB%, 2.4 fWAR
Bassitt still proved he can eat effective innings and keep hitters off balance with his funky delivery and pitch movement. He transitioned to the Jays’ bullpen in October and became one of John Schneider’s trusted right-handed options.
He’s not the pitcher he was in Oakland or even with New York, but it’s easy to imagine him signing a two-year deal with a club that needs reliable middle-rotation innings.
Adrian Houser (33): 21 starts, 125 innings, 3.31 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 17.8% K%, 7.3% BB%, 2.3 fWAR
Adrian Houser was one of the worst pitchers in baseball with the New York Mets in 2024 and saw his Major League career in jeopardy. He signed with the Chicago White Sox and immediately reversed course in 2025, eventually getting traded to the Tampa Bay Rays at the trade deadline.
Houser saw a major velocity uptick, which led to much better hard contact numbers. He improved his barrel rate from one of the worst in baseball to well-above average. Now he could earn a lucrative contract as a mid-rotation starter somewhere.
Justin Verlander (43): 26 starts, 152 innings, 3.85 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 20.7% K%, 7.9% BB%, 2.2 fWAR
Justin Verlander had a 2.87 ERA and 3.17 FIP in his final 11 starts of 2025, proving the soon to be 43 year old still has something left in the tank. Verlander still plans to pitch in 2026 and should earn another lucrative one-year deal from a starting pitcher-needy team.
Nick Martinez (35):40 games-26 starts, 165.2 innings, 4.45 ERA, 4.33 FIP, 17.0% K%, 6.1% BB%, 2.1 fWAR
Since joining the San Diego Padres in 2022, Martinez has become a very valuable pitcher to any staff he’s on by being a pure swing-man. He has made 61 starts in the last four years while coming out of the bullpen another 131 times.
His strikeout rate has declined the past two seasons and he saw a 2.9% jump in his walk rate but can still serve as a part-time starter and reliever. Probably not ideal full-time in either role, though.
Lucas Giolito (31): 26 starts, 145 innings, 3.41 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 19.7% K%, 9.1% BB%, 2.0 fWAR
Giolito’s market will be tough to evaluate. He missed all of 2024 with Tommy John surgery but returned in 2025 with 145 innings. It’s easy to bank on 160+ innings again being another year removed from surgery and with those results? It’s easy to see him as a mid-rotation starter.
But he might end up being the Taijuan Walker of this class, his projected ERA last year was over 5, he had a below-average strikeout rate and walk rate, while not being super effective at limiting hard contact. It’s probably not the best combination for a pitcher.
Tyler Mahle (31): 16 starts, 86.2 innings, 2.18 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 19.1% K%, 8.4% BB%, 1.9 fWAR
Mahle is also a potential regression candidate with the lack of strikeouts, issues with walks, and insanely low HR/FB rate.
However, there might be tweaks a team implements. He threw 50% four-seam fastballs with great results but a team might ask him to throw more splitters because they do a much better job of limiting hard contact.
Brandon Woodruff (33): 12 starts, 64.2 innings, 3.20 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 32.3% K%, 5.4% BB%, 1.8 fWAR
Two years ago, it seemed like Woodruff would become one of the next pitchers to receive a massive contract but he needed shoulder surgery in the middle of 2024. He signed a pillow contract with the Brewers and still looked like a front-line starter.
The problem is that he dealt with more injuries in 2025. He was placed on the injured list in late September with a lat strain and did not pitch for them in October.
Now Woodruff is 33 and has had back-to-back seasons riddled with injuries, what can be expected from him going forward?
Zack Littell (30): 32 starts, 186.2 innings, 3.81 ERA, 4.88 FIP, 17.1% K%, 4.2% BB%, 1.5 fWAR
There will be a market for any pitcher who throws 186 innings with a sub-four ERA, especially since he’s only 30. Teams won’t expect him to be more than a serviceable mid-rotation arm that throws strikes but that still commands a real payday.
Zac Gallen, Michael King, and Shota Imanaga
Gallen (30): 33 starts, 192 innings, 4.83 ERA, 4.50 FIP, 21.5% K%, 8.1% BB%, 1.1 fWAR
King (31): 15 starts, 73.1 innings, 3.44 ERA, 4.42 FIP, 24.7% K%, 8.4% BB%, 0.8 fWAR
Imanaga (32): 25 starts, 144.2 innings, 3.73 ERA, 4.86 FIP, 20.6% K%, 4.6% BB%, 0.9 fWAR
Each of these starters face way more uncertain markets than they did a year ago.
Gallen threw 192 innings but took a massive step back from once being a front-line starter on a team trying to contend. His ERA went up more than a run, strikeout decline by nearly 4%, and his barrel rate jump 2.3%. He’s only 30 and still maintains the same velocity he did before but might’ve pitched his way out of a 100+ million dollar deal.
King is the best pitcher on this list but only made 15 starts in 2025 because of a nerve issue that affected his right shoulder. He also saw a massive increase in barrels allowed and 3% dip in his strikeout rate. He might be looking for a pillow contract this winter.
The Chicago Cubs declined Imanaga’s club option that would’ve paid him $57 million over the next three seasons. His fastball velocity declined by nearly a mile per hour, strikeout rate went down nearly 5%, and his hard contact issues got worse.
In the moment, it seemed like the Cubs were just being cheap but they might’ve been right after all.
Griffin Canning (30): 16 starts, 76.1 innings, 3.77 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 21.3% K%, 10.7% BB%, 0.9 fWAR.
The Mets brought Canning in on a one-year deal as a reclamation project and it was working wonders for them. He wasn’t special but gave them roughly five innings a night with a unique pitch mix. The Mets bumped his slider usage up from 24% to 31% while adding in a cutter in short bursts.
All of that ended when Canning tore his Achilles in late June and ended his season.
Will teams hesitate to buy him as a viable mid-rotation option because he only made 16 starts?
Max Scherzer and Walker Buehler
Scherzer (41): 17 starts, 85 innings, 5.19 ERA, 4.99 FIP, 22.9% K%, 6.4% BB%, 0.4 fWAR
Buehler (31): 26 games, 24 starts, 126 innings, 4.93 ERA, 5.66 FIP, 16.3% K%, 10.8% BB%, -0.3 fWAR
Each of these former front line starters may sign one-year deals this season to extend their careers.
Max Scherzer was not the one-year rotation add the Blue Jays envisioned as he dealt with injuries and ineffectiveness throughout the 2025 season.
But Scherzer still threw a mile per hour harder than 2024 and still looked like he had something left in the tank in October.
Buehler signed a one-year deal with the Boston Red Sox after a dominant October as both a starter and reliever. His fastball looked elite again and he might be able to prove he was still a really good pitcher and only 30.
He was cut before September.
Buehler landed on his feet with the Phillies and put together a 0.66 ERA in 13.2 innings with the Phillies but is that enough for a team to give him another serious look?
Tatsuya Imai (28): 24 starts, 163.2 innings, 1.92 ERA, 2.01 FIP, 27.8% K%, 7.0% BB% (NPB)
Imai could be in line for a payday as a younger pitcher with an interesting fastball because of his low arm slot. It’s always difficult to tell which players from Japan translate to the States. Yoshinobu Yamamoto just won World Series MVP while his teammate Roki Sasaki struggled as a starter despite a unique and ridiculous splitter.
Imai might be a decent in-between. He likely won’t be what Yamamoto has been but he should project as a solid mid-rotation arm that’s only 28 years old.
Free Agent Relievers
There are a lot of relievers to cover and this piece is already 6700 words long. There will be four groups to cover and a brief overview of the section.
Could be starters:
Brad Keller (30): 68 games, 68.0 innings, 2.07 ERA, 2.93 FIP, 27.% K%, 8.0% BB%, 1.3 fWAR
Keller is the only member on this list but is an easy pick. He has 117 starts in his big league career but didn’t take a leap until the Cubs signed him to be a right-handed reliever. He has the workload guys like Reynaldo Lopez and Clay Holmes didn’t have before becoming starters and he already carries a five-pitch mix.
Right-handed closers/high leverage relievers:
Edwin Díaz (32): 62 games, 66.1 innings, 1.63 ERA, 2.28 FIP, 38.0% K%, 8.1% BB%, 2.0 fWAR
Robert Suarez (35): 70 games, 69.2 innings, 2.97 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 27.9% K%, 5.9% BB%, 1.9 fWAR
Pete Fairbanks (32): 61 games, 60.1 innings, 2.83 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 24.2% K%, 7.4% BB%, 1.0 fWAR
Phil Maton (33): 63 games, 61.1 innings, 2.79 ERA, 2.60 FIP, 32.7% K%, 9.3% BB%, 1.5 fWAR
Devin Williams (31): 67 games, 62.0 innings, 4.79 ERA, 2.68 FIP, 34.7% K%, 9.7% BB%, 1.4 fWAR
Tyler Rogers (35): 81 games, 77.1 innings, 1.98 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 16.1% K%, 2.3% BB%, 1.3 fWAR
Kyle Finnegan (34): 56 games, 57.0 innings, 3.47 ERA, 3.12 FIP, 24.0% K%, 7.9% BB%, 1.2 fWAR
The usual suspects were put up here but I can tell everyone is wondering why Kyle Finnegan is in the same category as Edwin Díaz.
- I did not say these were tier rankings. 2. Kyle Finnegan was really good with the Tigers.
In 16 games with the Tigers, Finnegan put up a 1.50 ERA and 1.97 FIP with a completely new pitch mix that allowed him to limit way more damage and pick up a lot more strikeouts.
Finnegan’s usage with the Nationals’
- 390 4S fastballs (66%)
- 176 splitters (30%)
- 28 sliders (4%)
Finnegan’s usage with the Tigers
- 138 splitters (55%)
- 103 4S fastballs (41%)
- 11 sliders (4%)
I’ll be the one to fully buy in on those changes.
Lefties:
Caleb Thielbar (39): 67 games, 58.0 innings, 2.64 ERA, 3.00 FIP, 25.5% K%, 5.9% BB%, 1.1 fWAR
Steven Matz (35): 53 games, 76.2 innings, 3.05 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 19.1% K%, 3.6% BB%, 1.1 fWAR
Justin Wilson (38): 61 games, 48.1 innings, 3.35 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 27.5% K%, 9.7% B%, 1.0 fWAR
Gregory Soto (31): 70 games, 60.1 innings, 4.18 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 25.1% K%, 8.6% BB%, 0.7 fWAR
Drew Pomeranz (37): 57 games, 49.2 innings, 2.17 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 28.1% K%, 7.4% BB%, 0.7 fWAR
Drew Pomeranz did not pitch in the major leagues for three straight seasons and then put together a magical season as one of the better relievers on the Chicago Cubs. He does not throw as hard as he used to but he still struck out plenty of batters and limits walks.
Someone will convince themselves they can fix Gregory Soto. Also, can Fangraphs please fix the headshot on his page?
Veteran right handed relievers
Shawn Armstrong (35): 71 games, 74.0 innings, 2.31 ERA, 3.07 FIP, 26.1% K%, 7.0% BB%, 1.4 fWAR
Raisel Iglesias (36): 70 games, 67.1 innings, 3.21 ERA, 3.31 FIP, 27.4% K%, 6.0 BB%, 1.0 fWAR
Seranthony Domínguez (31): 67 games, 62.2 innings, 3.16 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 30.3% K%, 13.8% BB%, 0.9 fWAR
Domínguez is a different pitcher than Phillies fans remember. He is way more wild because Baltimore gave him secondary pitches that are way harder to command. His home run rate went down to 2022 levels but it wasn’t enough for him to return to elite form.
Raisel Iglesias smells like a Dave Dombrowski target but maybe the calculus has changed after the Jhoan Duran trade.
Interesting righties:
Ryan Helsley (31): 58 games 56.0 innings, 4.50 ERA, 4.14 FIP, 25.0% K%, 9.9% BB%, 0.2 fWAR
Michael Kopech (30): 14 games, 11.0 innings, 2.45 ERA, 4.50 FIP, 22.6% K%, 24.5% BB%, 0.0 fWAR
Hunter Harvey (31): 12 games, 10.2 innings, 0.00 ERA, 1.35 FIP, 28.2% K%, 2.6% BB%, 0.5 fWAR
Luke Weaver (32): 64 games, 64.2 innings, 3.62 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 27.5% K%, 7.6% BB%, 0.5 fWAR
Each of these relievers have put together great seasons in the past and have pitched in big playoff games but find themselves likely signing one-year contracts after injury-plagued or disappointing seasons.
The most interesting reliever of the bunch is Michael Kopech, who was on the injured list three different times last season and did not carry the same stuff he showed in 2024 as a Dodger. But with a healthy off-season, Kopech could easily return as a devastating right-handed relief option or he could be the next Jordan Romano flame out.
Trade Stuff
Given that the Tigers decided to offer Gleyber Torres the QO, I’m going to assume they won’t trade Tarik Skubal. Given that the Pirates are paying Paul Skenes the league minimum and he’s really good at pitching, I assume the Pirates aren’t trading him either.
Twins:
Joe Ryan (29): 30 starts, 171 innings, 3.42 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 28.2% K%, 5.7% BB%, 3.1 fWAR
Pablo Lopez (30): 14 starts, 75.2 innings, 2.74 ERA, 3.19 FIP, 23.4% K%, 6.4% BB%, 1.8 fWAR
Ryan Jeffers (29): 119 games, .266/.356/.397, 9 home runs, 2.1 fWAR
It’s not 100% certain that the Twins will sell but given what happened at the trade deadline, it still feels like the likely direction they take. In that world, Ryan, Lopez, and Jeffers feel like the players worth mentioning given their contract status and value.
Lopez only made 14 starts but other wise has three straight seasons of at least 180 innings and at least 3 fWAR. Ryan has put up two straight seasons above three fWAR with his four-seam dominant arsenal. Both have two more years of control and the starting pitcher free agency market faces plenty of questions.
Given that the best free agency catcher is JT Realmuto, Jeffers will probably generate plenty of interest. He is not very good defensively but is a proven hitter. He might come at an affordable price given that he is a free agent next off-season.
He was not mentioned at the top but Byron Buxton might be willing to waive his no-trade clause if the Twins continue their fire sale. Buxton has roughly three years and $45 million left on his contract while having his healthiest season since 2017.
Buxton turns 32 next year and might not be a center fielder much longer, but is still as good as ever and he’s one of the fastest players in the sport.
Cardinals:
Brendan Donovan (29): 118 games, .287/.353/.422, 10 home runs, 2.9 fWAR
Sonny Gray (36): 32 starts, 180.2 innings, 4.28 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 26.7% K%, 5.0% BB%, 3.6 fWAR
Chaim Bloom is now running the show in St. Louis and is probably motivated to kick off the rebuild finally.
After the Blue Jays built around their superstar hitters with contact and defense, Donovan might be the type of player every team is looking to acquire. He plays a bunch of positions but second base is his best and he doesn’t strike out.
Gray is owed $35 million next season with a club option for 2027. If the Cardinals are motivated to trade him, they will probably have to eat some of that money but Gray is a proven front-end starter and might not go for as much because of his salary.
Players:
MacKenzie Gore (27): 30 starts, 159.2 innings, 4.17 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 27.2% K%, 9.4% BB%, 2.9 fWAR
Gore has three straight seasons with at least 27 starts and has 6.1 combined fWAR in the last two. Still, since he’s about to turn 27, there still might be untapped potential with a new team. Gore threw his four seam fastball 49.3% of the time and allowed a .483 slug while having two very good breaking balls. He’s also never developed a sinker which might be the first tweak a new organization makes.
Given how good Jesus Luzardo was for the Phillies, every team is looking for the next young pitcher that needs a fresh set of eyes. Gore might be that.
Taylor Ward (32): 157 games, .228/.317/.475, 36 home runs, 2.9 fWAR
Death, taxes, and winter rumors about Taylor Ward potentially getting traded. With only one year left of team control, maybe this is the year the Angels finally trade him.
Ward might benefit from a new home ballpark, Angel stadium has never been good for right handed hitters and Ward had a 249 point difference between his OPS on the road and at home.
Freddy Peralta (29): 33 starts, 176.2 innings, 2.70 ERA, 3.64 FIP, 28.2% K%, 9.1% BB%, 3.6 fWAR
The Brewers should not trade their best starting pitcher after winning 97 games and going to the NLCS but this is what the Brewers do. They did this with Corbin Burnes two winters ago and might do the exact same thing here. Maybe even to the exact same team.
Peralta has one year left of control but is coming off his best season since 2021. He has at least 165 innings in each of the last three seasons with four really good pitches to choose from.
