We’re gearing up for a bloodbath.
The Seattle Seahawks have lost three games, all by four points or less, and all against solid opponents. They have a top ten offense, defense, and special teams unit, have scored
at least 26 points for six straight weeks, and just finished beating up the struggling Vikings in a shutout. They have a credible case as one of the three-to-five best teams in football, and now they’re coming to town against our awful Falcons. If Atlanta wins it’ll be a miracle; if they make this a real game it’ll be a minor one.
We’ll still be tuning in for it, naturally, so here’s what you need to know about the game ahead.
Team rankings
Atlanta’s only real chance in this one is to take advantage of Sam Darnold’s willingness to turn the ball over and turn it into points.
Otherwise than that and a middling rushing attack, the Seahawks are just demonstrably better across the board than Atlanta, to a degree these rankings probably can’t properly capture. We knew this would be a tough game pretty early on this year, but we didn’t know Seattle would be this good.
How the Seahawks have changed
Seattle just smoked Atlanta a year ago by the score of 34-14, and this is recognizably the same team. But there have been real changes since the last time the Falcons saw them, nonetheless.
The biggest is Geno Smith leaving and Sam Darnold entering. Geno’s play was flagging a little bit last year and has cratered this year, while Darnold has been brilliant for stretches and turnover-prone and shaky at other times while providing an overall upgrade for Seattle. The real rest for him will come in the playoffs, given that the Seahawks will definitely be in them. The offense has certainly improved under new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, who is making a push to be a hot head coaching candidate in the 2026 offseason.
The team traded DK Metcalf away along with Smith, let longtime receiver Tyler Lockett and tight end Noah Fant walk, and shed a few useful players, but brought in DeMarcus Lawrence (5 sacks), Cooper Kupp (38 catches, 438 yards, 1 TD), and legendary former Falcon Eric Saubert. Their draft brought in plus rookie starter Grey Zabel on the offensive line, receiver Tory Horton (13 grabs, five touchdowns), and impressive rookie defensiev back Nick Emmanwori.
The end result is a better team than the squad that went 10-7 in Mike MacDonald’s first year as head coach, and a team that looks like a juggernaut in the making if quarterback can stay relatively stable.
What to know about Week 14
Your best shot is to have A.J. Terrell follow Jaxon Smith-Njigba everywhere, pressure Sam Darnold into turnovers, and take advantage of a comparatively soft middle of the defense by getting Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, and ideally Drake London matchups with Seattle’s linebackers as much as possible. You’ll need to run the ball because you have Bijan and Tyler Allgeier and no defense is so good that it can definitely stop them cold, but a winning recipe requires those other ingredients.
The reason is that Seattle is basically good at everything else. Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet are an effective duo despite less-than-stellar week-to-week production, combining for over 1,000 yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground. Walker is also an occasionally useful receiving option, but the real star there is Smith-Njigba, who has 82 catches for 1,336 yards and eight touchdowns in a massive breakout year. Kupp is not the receiver he once was but does take some pressure off Smith-Njigba, while tight end AJ Barner (37 grabs, 359 yards, 4 touchdowns) will put pressure on Atlanta’s linebackers and safeties. This team is heavily reliant on Smith-Njigba being great, but he is great, and there’s enough around him to prevent teams from just trying to double him all day long. Rashid Shaheed is also here and has barely been utilized, but we know from experience that he’s a credible deep threat.
Darnold is having another strong season, with cracks we’ll get to. He’s first in the league in completed air yards per passing attempt, tops in on-target throw percentage, top ten in yards and touchdowns, and has one of the lowest sack rates in the NFL. That means if he has time, he’s going to fire accurate passes to JSN in particular, allowing Seattle to dominate through the air. I don’t have to tell you that the Falcons can’t afford to squat on the run the way they tried to against the Saints and Jets, because Darnold will kill them.
That said, Darnold does have weaknesses. He’s 37th in completion percentage under pressure, per Pro Football Focus, and has thrown the second-highest interception total in the league when pressure comes, at six. He moves well enough in the pocket and evades pressure effectively enough to extend plays and stay alive, but if Darnold is forced to throw when flustered, the outcome is not often great. Hitting Darnold will be critical, too, as he’s fumbled seven times, tied for the fourth-highest total in the league. The Falcons couldn’t get to Tyrod Taylor quite often enough a week ago to force him into bad mistakes; failure to do so against Darnold will get them killed.
Getting Terrell on JSN is absolutely critical. Terrell has been stingy this year despite teams not completely avoiding his side of the field, but Mike Hughes in particular and Dee Alford to a lesser degree have had stretches where they’ve scuffled covering dynamic receivers. We’ll see Alford matched up against him at least part of the game and will have to hope Alford has a good game, but I would do everything I can to force Darnold to test Terrell on Sunday. He’s not often the author of big plays, obviously, but his work in coverage should help to keep JSN from taking over this game.
Offensively, the Falcons will want to stay balanced, utilize play action, and be wise about where they attack. This is a talented, intimidating defense that can bring pressure and covers well, with their biggest holes at safety and linebacker. There are no true weak links there, but Pitts and London have a far better chance of dominating against Ty Okada, Coby Bryant, Ernest Jones, and Drake Thomas than they do against Emmanwori, Josh Jobe, and Devon Witherspoon at corner. It’s going to be tough sledding regardless, but utilizing Atlanta’s big pass catchers and yards after the catch wizards are their only credible path to victory.
On special teams, the Seahawks have a stone solid group for kick returns and the extremely dangerous Rashid Shaheed and Tory Horton on punt returns, putting a lot of pressure on Atlanta’s putrid coverage units to hold them in check. Jason Myers is also a fine kicker, though he’s merely good and not great from 50-plus.
If you gathered that there’s a very narrow, boulder-strewn path to victory for Atlanta, then you gathered correctly. I can’t say I expect the Falcons to win this one and can’t even really suggest that I expect them to be competitive, but hope springs eternal.
