Entering the 2025 season, there was no team with higher expectations than the Los Angeles Dodgers.
After rolling to a five-game series victory over the Yankees to claim their second World Series title in the past
five seasons, the juggernaut franchise dipped its toes in the Juan Soto sweepstakes before going out and adding to its embarrassment of riches by signing Blake Snell to a nine-figure contract, Tanner Scott to a lucrative $72 million deal, and frustrating all of baseball by landing marquee international free agents Hyeseong Kim and—most gratingly—Roki Sasaki for pennies on the dollar.
All of this, along with adding 2024 All-Star reliever Kirby Yates and re-signing key pieces like Teoscar Hernandez, Blake Treinen, and the immortal Clayton Kershaw, combined to set the Dodgers up with the highest preseason over/under win total (103.5) since the 1999 Yankees. After a 7-0 start, that number surged to a mind-boggling 108.5 wins. It all seemed set up for 162 games of domination for the reigning champions.
But that’s not how baseball works. Injuries, regression, and other vices pushed the Dodgers down. A summer slog saw the team go 37-37 over their final 74 games. Despite many wondering if they could challenge their franchise record of 111 wins, they finished with just 93, settling for the NL’s No. 3 seed. They didn’t clinch the NL West, a formality since spring, until Thursday, so they will have to contend with the Wild Card round for just the second time during their streak of 13 consecutive playoff seasons.
2024 record: 93-69
Manager: Dave Roberts
Top hitter by fWAR: Shohei Ohtani, DH/SP (7.5 fWAR, 9.4 total fWAR)
Top pitcher by fWAR: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP (5.0 fWAR)
Let’s start with the bats. The Dodgers had a projected death lineup entering the year, and they did finish with some very great offensive numbers. They were second in homers (244), second in OPS (.768), tied for second in wRC+ (113), and tied for fifth in batting average (.253). Still, it was a disappointing year for most of their lineup.
The brilliance continued for Shohei Ohtani (.282/.393/.622, 172 wRC+, 7.5 fWAR), who’s been the second-best hitter in baseball over the past three seasons. Now that he’s pitching again, watch out. They also saw more of the same from Freddie Freeman (.295/.367/.502, 139 wRC+, 3.8 fWAR), Will Smith (.296/.404/.497, 153 wRC+, 4.2 fWAR), and saw Max Muncy (.243/.376/.470, 137 wRC+, 2.9 fWAR) stabilize after some inconsistent seasons. Muncy and Smith, although, missed a combined 114 games. Although he’s had a shaky second half, Andy Pages (.272/.313/.461, 113 wRC+, 4.0 fWAR) has emerged as a homegrown, long-term fixture in center field.
It’s after that where the offense gets murkier than we thought. Mookie Betts (.258/.326/.406, 104 wRC+, 3.4 fWAR) started the season with a serious illness that saw him drop 25 pounds. He never really got going with the bat, and although his glove at shortstop was great, his bat was extremely inconsistent, posting career lows across the board.
The recently-extended 2024 NLCS MVP Tommy Edman only had an 81 wRC+, Teoscar had a sub-1 fWAR year with arguably the worst year he’s had offensively in his career. Michael Conforto has been really rough as a one-year stopgap in left field, which could be stomached if the team was able to find a suitable replacement, but Trade Deadline acquisition Alex Call hasn’t been that.
The Dodgers’ financial table is actually quite bleak going forward if the performances of several players don’t reverse, but if any team is equipped to stomach multiple bloated contracts, it’s the modern-day Dodgers.
The postseason lineup for the Dodgers will consist of their core at the top, but it’s a mystery what the bottom of the lineup will look like. Will 2024 postseason heroes Edman and Kiké Hernandez (-0.2 fWAR in 93 games) re-emerge? What about Kim and Miguel Rojas? Is Will Smith healthy? He’s been out for most of September with a hairline fracture in his hand, but even if he’s back, will he be 100 percent? All of a sudden, a seemingly unstoppable lineup looks mortal.
The starting rotation is the lone area where the Dodgers figure to be significantly better than last October. After limping through October with Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty, and Walker Buehler, they have an embarrassment of riches this time around.
Snell has been worth the money when healthy. In 11 starts, he has a 2.35 ERA and 2.7 FIP in 61.1 innings with a 28.3-percent strike rate. Yamamoto will likely be a Cy Young finalist after posting a 2.49 ERA across 30 starts and over 170 innings in his second season. Even the immortal Clayton Kershaw, in his final season, has managed to turn in 22 starts of 3.36 ERA baseball at age 37. Even if he doesn’t start in October, he will play some part of any Dodgers’ run to repeat (though he’s off the roster for the first round).
There are a few question marks, however, in terms of usage. Tyler Glasnow, who only made 18 starts and threw 90,1 innings this year, is slated to be in the bullpen for the Wild Card Series. Does he have a role in the rotation if they advance? What about breakout 25-year-old Emmet Sheehan, who’s quietly posted a sub-3 ERA across 73.1 innings of his own with a stellar 23.0 K-BB%. What about Shohei? He still isn’t totally stretched out, but he’s been phenomenal in September (14.2 IP, 0 R, 2 BB, 18 K). He’s scheduled to pitch a potential Game 3, but with his velo potential, is he better suited to help their ailing bullpen?
Speaking of the bullpen, it’s been a disaster for how much money they poured into it. Scott had a flat-out bad first year in Dodger blue, pitching to a 4.74 ERA in 57 innings and moving in and out of the closer role. Injuries and ineffectiveness have stunted the likes of Blake Treinen (5.40 ERA in 26.2 IP), Kirby Yates (5.23 ERA in 41.1 IP), and Michael Kopech (11 IP, currently on IL).
Their current hopes rely on their big money closer to get right, while setting him up with Alex Vesia and a pair of young fireballers in Edgardo Henriquez and… Roki Sasaki?
Yes, Sasaki, whose velocity cratered upon coming to America and spent months on the injured list and in Triple-A, is back throwing absolute gas as a one-inning reliever. While the Dodgers likely want to stretch him back out as a starter long-term, the triple-digit fastball returning for the first time since the 2023 World Baseball Classic, paired with his nasty splitter, has made him unhittable in a short sample size since being recalled last week. That’s the state of their bullpen in a nutshell.
Ultimately, these Dodgers are extremely mortal. While they are in very good position to end the good vibes of the feel-good Cincinnati Reds this week, their opponent in the NLDS would be a much more formidable Phillies team that has the experience and star power to make a run. If the Dodgers are going to repeat, they’re going to need to do it with their great starting rotation, better health, and some big rebounds from multiple key pieces of their 2024 World Series run.
