As Ole Miss fans, our meltdown scar tissue is worthy of its own medical journal so future generations will wonder how those people even got out of bed.
While painful to acquire, it does protect you from meltdown blips like we experienced last Saturday in Athens. The way in which Ole Miss lost to Georgia was grotesque, but it was in no way traumatizing or 1,000-yard stare inducing.
In fact, if you’re a grizzled veteran fan, you knew Ole Miss was cooked as soon as they went 3-and-out for the first time
all day with 12:37 to play and up 35-33. If you were actually in Athens, that’s when you should’ve started walking to the car*.
*I’ve left many an Ole Miss game early and not once have they ever made me regret leaving.
It was surprising how the offense went from well-oiled touchdown machine to looking like this was their first practice ever. It was jarring!
For the first 49 plays of the game, Ole Miss scored 35 points and piled up 338 yards of offense, which was good for 6.89 yards per play. If you take out Georgia’s three kneeldowns, they averaged 6.58 yards per play.
On the last three possessions, Ole Miss:
- Ran 11 plays for 13 yards (12 of which came on one play)
- Recorded 1 first down
- Scored 0 points
- Averaged 1.18 yards/play
- Averaged 0.1 yards/play if you take out Kewan Lacy’s 12-yard run
Thanks, I hate it.
The good news is we get to hit the reset button, and things begin anew on Saturday in Norman.
What we know
Trinidad Chambliss as QB1
In the five games he’s started, these things have happened:
- Offense has averaged 33.8 points a game
- Offense has averaged 6.6 yards/play
- He’s thrown 1 interception in 160 attempts
- He’s averaged 4.79 yards/rush (which includes sack yardage)
- He has a 7:1 touchdown to interception ratio
- He’s averaged 9.3 yards per pass attempt
- Offense has scored 23 times on 25 red zone appearances
What part of that says there should be a quarterback debate?
I believe Ole Miss will need Austin Simmons in relief at some point this year, but the alleged quarterback debate involves a version of Austin Simmons that only existed in practices, anonymous quotes, and imaginations. Simmons is no slouch, but nothing he did in the first two games suggests he should take over for a quarterback putting up those kinds of numbers.
It’s Chambliss’ show until his performance craters or he misses time due to injury.
Defensive manifesto
On Thursday, I performed an Honesty Check, which you can read here. The TL;DR version is:
- They lack talent to match up against good offenses
- They’re good enough (not great) against middling to bad offenses
- Pete Golding committed to a bend-but-don’t-break style because he knows that’s his only sane option given what his personnel is
- Every offense Ole Miss plays the rest of the regular season is significantly worse than Georgia and Arkansas
What we kinda know
Getting some strong LSU game vibes for Saturday
Oklahoma and LSU are similar in that both have great defenses and neither offense is good at running the ball, which places a lot on their quarterbacks’ shoulders. While Oklahoma is better statistically at running than LSU is, the offense is still heavily dependent on John Mateer making plays.
In the two games since Mateer returned from hand surgery, Oklahoma has averaged 15 points/game and 3.7 yards/play, with the majority of that damage coming against South Carolina. In that time, Mateer has:
- Averaged 5.5 yards/pass attempt
- Rushed for 29 yards on 22 attempts
- Thrown 3 interceptions to 1 touchdown
How much of that is related to injury recovery and how much is related to defenses having a better book on Oklahoma’s offense and Mateer is in a foggy area.
As for the Oklahoma defense, their numbers are ridiculous. Here’s their defensive profile I included in yesterday’s post:
Of note though, these are the SP+ rankings of the offenses they’ve played:
- Michigan – 45th
- Temple – 60th
- Auburn – 65th
- Kent State – 131st
- Texas – 58th
- South Carolina – 85th
Not exactly an offensive gauntlet. For context, Ole Miss is ranked 10th.
What we don’t know
The ol’ rebound
How does the 2025 version of Ole Miss respond to a loss, especially one in which they had every chance to win? Does the defense find a way to elevate their play after being embarrassed? Does the offense keep it rolling even against a strong defense?
