Panthers playoff picture: Where Carolina stands after Week 16 vs. Buccaneers

A Panthers win improves their odds at the playoffs and winning the NFC South

Summarized by AI ⓘ

What is the story about?

The Panthers needed a win today to solidify their contention for the NFC South title and the fourth seed in the NFC for the 2025-26 NFL Playoffs. They scraped that win off of the skin of their teeth and now only have to repeat the process against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Tampa in Week 18 to stamp their ticket.

That isn’t the only way they are going to make the playoffs, but it is the most likely way. Below are the Panthers remaining scenarios for winning the NFC South. Perhaps the biggest takeaway

from today is that the Panthers cannot be eliminated from the playoffs until the last week of the season.

Panthers finish 10-7

They’re in.

Panthers finish 9-8

If they sweep the Bucs then they’re in.
If they split with the Bucs AND the Bucs beat the Dolphins then they’re out.
If they split with the Bucs AND they beat the Seahawks AND the Bucs lose to the Dolphins then they’re in.

Panthers finish 8-8-1 or 9-7-1

Any scenario where the Panthers finish with a 1-0-1 record against the Bucs sees Carolina win the NFC South and enter the playoffs.
If they split with the Bucs AND tie the Seahawks AND the Bucs lose to Miami then they are in.
If they split with the Bucs AND tie the Seahawks AND the Bucs beat Miami then they are out.

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Panthers finish 8-9

~~If the Bucs sweep then the Panthers are out.~~
If they split AND the Bucs beat Miami AND the Atlanta Falcons lose one more game then the Panthers are out
If they split AND the Bucs lose to the Dolphins AND the Falcons win out then the Panthers are in