Ho hum, anyone see anything interesting on Wednesday night? With all due respect to the 2016 Cubs, this team is becoming the most “must watch” Cub team of my lifetime. That ‘16 team was a rampaging juggernaut. But that was like sitting down and watching Michelangelo bang out a work of art. You expected them to win and they didn’t disappoint all too often. This year’s team had no such expectations and with a crazy run of injuries, basically all to the pitching staff, there remains a feeling that it could
end at any time.
There were points during both Monday and Tuesday’s late wins where I thought if the Cubs could get the line moving, they were in good shape. Wednesday? Obviously, it was easy to feel pretty confident all night long. Everything was going right until a disastrous top of the ninth inning where the bullpen imploded. A 4-2 lead instead became a 6-4 deficit on a rare tag up and score from second play.
I definitely thought the sands had finally all run down on the hourglass and one was going to get away. The Cubs had a 94.2 percent chance of winning after a scoreless Reds eighth. It was 92.9 percent after the Cubs were held scoreless in the bottom of the inning. Spencer Steer’s homer dropped the odds down to 84.1 percent. But that inning just kept going. After that two run sacrifice fly, the Cub chances dropped all of the way to 8 percent. When Michael Busch struck out leading off the Cub ninth, it dropped to 4.3 percent. Wow.
Carson Kelly had a nice plate appearance and then singled. That gave the Cubs 10.3 percent. That set the table for Pete Crow-Armstrong. His two-run homer tied the game. That moved the odds all of the way up to 57.8 percent. What a wild ride. This team just doesn’t quit. They battle and they are playing with an immense amount of confidence. The Cub offense put up 10 hits, drew four walks and was hit by a pitch.
Fourteen straight home wins (tied for second most in team history and most since they won 14 straight in 2008). Seven straight wins (longest since, last month). 18 wins in 21 games. Three walk-offs against the same team for the first time since 1943. Three straight walk-offs for the first time since 2009. Ian Happ has a 27-game on-base streak, the longest since Bryan LaHair in 2012. Yeah, let’s run past that one.
This is such an amazing stretch of baseball. The Cubs have gone from last to first. But not only first, they now lead the Cardinals by 3.5 games in the Central and after that, the Brewers, Reds and Pirates are five back. The Cubs are just a half game back of the Braves for the best record in the NL.
So many achievements. So many accomplishments. Seemingly, every single day. What a wild and crazy ride.
Go Cubs.
Three Positives:
- Pete Crow-Armstrong had a pair of hits, was hit by a pitch, drove in two and scored one. That homer was the play of the game. The OPS continues to creep up and is now at .702. He’s just under league average at wRC+ 98.
- Ian Happ would have had the top spot if this had been a ho hum 4-2 win. He had three hits, one a homer (as he continues to climb the All-Time homers as a Cub list). He drove in two, scored two and stole a base. One of the all-time most underappreciated Cub players has an .890 OPS and a wRC+ of 149. And he still grades out as a plus fielder in left.
- Jacob Webb inherited two runners in the sixth, didn’t allow them to score and recorded five outs on five batters faced. Special mention to Trent Thornton recording three outs while facing two batters in the tenth.
Game 37, May 6: Cubs 7, Reds 6 (25-12)
WPA GRAPH
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.471). 2-3, HR, HBP, 2 RBI, R
- This is the fourth highest WPA score of the season by a Cub.
- Hero: Michael Busch (.350). 1-3, BB, RBI, R
- Sidekick: Trent Thornton (.339). IP, 2 BF (W 1-0)
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Hoby Milner (-.505). IP, 6 BF, H, BB, ER, K
- This is the second lowest WPA score of the season by a Cub
- Goat: Corbin Martin (-.367). 0 IP, 3 BF, 3 H, 3 ER
- Kid: Nico Hoerner (-.132). 0-5, R, DP
WPA Play of the Game: Pete Crow-Armstrong’s one-out, two-run, game-tying homer in the ninth. (.475)
*Reds Play of the Game. JJ Bleday’s RBI-single with one out and the bases loaded in the ninth to cut the deficit to one. (.262)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 36 Winner: Michael Busch (232 of 250 votes)
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 3/Bottom 3)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Michael Conforto +10
- Michael Bsuch +9
- Nico Hoerner +8.5
- Pete Crow-Armstrong/Caleb Thielbar/Phil Maton -6
- Matt Shaw -9
- Seiya Suzuki -14
Current Win Pace: 109.46
Up Next: The Cubs will attempt to sweep the Reds in a four-game series on Thursday afternoon at Wrigley. Amazingly, the Cubs already have a four-game home sweep this season. Shōta Imanaga (3-2, 2.40, 41.1 IP) will make his eighth start of the season. Last time out, he threw seven scoreless against the Diamondbacks, picking up a win. The Reds will start 24-year-old righty Rhett Lowder (3-2, 5.09, 35.1). This is the eighth start of the season and 14th start of Lowder’s career. He was the seventh overall pick by the Reds in the 2023 draft. Last time out, he allowed eight runs in just 1.1 IP in a start at Pittsburgh.
This would be an excellent day for the offense to have one of those double digit scoring games.
Let’s get number 15 in a row at home for the first time in a very long time.
