The only thing harder than climbing to the top is staying there.
The conversations that the Seattle Seahawks will struggle to continue their success have already started. Yet there’s one piece of evidence that I’d like to flip on its head.
Seattle finished 2025 with the best scoring defense and best defense by DVOA. According to Aaron Schatz, that’s not a good sign for the 2026 outlook.
His point is that three offenses were able to repeat as best in the NFL, and five others were able to remain in the top-three. Contrast that with just one defense that was able to repeat as league-best, and only four others stayed top-three.
Conclusion? Regression likely. The pesky Los Angeles Rams are more likely to take the throne.
Here’s what I know that Schatz doesn’t – what a year three Mike Macdonald defense will look like. Reason being? Nobody knows what a year three Mike Macdonald defense will look like. It’s never been seen before.
He was the defensive coordinator for one year at Michigan. It got him an NFL job.
He was the defensive coordinator for two years at Baltimore. Year two was so good it got him a head coach job.
Year three loading.
Let’s also look real quick at regression candidates positionally. Take linebacker off the table immediately, they’re on the way up. Same with defensive tackle, for reasons already covered. Safety is next, most likely a push. Either Coby Bryant comes back or Ty Okada is up, and I have full faith in him based on a stellar 2025 role filling in. That leaves the outside of the d-line, and cornerback. CB is the hardest to figure this early, and free agency will make the most impact here. I seriously doubt the team would draft anyone who would play as well as Riq Woolen as a rookie. It’s possible they’d let him walk and coach someone up to play as well, but by no means a guaranteed. Corner is one of the biggest conversations this team will carry through the offseason.
The real interesting one is edge. For as all-world as this defense was, the one thing they didn’t have was an elite speed quick-pressure pass rusher. You don’t see the Seahawks show up on charts like these:
And clearly this team proved that championships are not built solely on double-digit sack guys, but they also sure could have used one against Matt Stafford.
Let’s say Maxx Crosby or Trey Hendrickson find their way to Seattle. Like a year ago when the Seahawks drafted Gray Zabel in Round 1, there is hardly a spot that could see more of an improvement than a high-powered rusher on the edge. DeMarcus Lawrence and Derick Hall are the two best ends on the roster, and their game is different. Boye Mafe could be improved upon significantly, and may not return at all. Seattle can get better here, and if they did get better here – arguably the most impactful position on defense, it would go a long way to curb that defensive decline Schatz predicted.
