The preseason is over. The “get right” games are finished. Now, the real season begins.
While Kentucky Basketball fans are rightfully celebrating a four-game winning streak and the return of a healthy roster,
the statistical profile of this team still has a few cracks in the foundation. In the non-conference, you can paper over these cracks with talent against subpar teams.
In the SEC, teams like Alabama, Tennessee, and Auburn will put a wedge in them and hammer until the foundation breaks, which we have seen in games against Gonzaga and Michigan State already.
I dug into the updated analytics to find the three specific improvements Kentucky must make to thrive in league play.
1. Kentucky Basketball has to stop hitting the snooze button (1st half scoring)
The Stat:
- 1st Half Points: 38.8 (Rank #76)
- 2nd Half Points: 46.1 (Rank #23)
The Problem: Kentucky is living dangerously as a “second-half team.” Ranking 76th in first-half offense is a recipe for disaster on the road in the SEC. You might be able to sleepwalk through the first 20 minutes against Bellarmine, but if you dig a double-digit hole in the first half at Coleman Coliseum or Thompson-Boling Arena, you aren’t climbing out without a huge effort. Mark Pope’s offense relies on rhythm. When they start slow, they press. Kentucky has to find a way to replicate its second-half urgency (Rank #23) from the opening tip. If they do that, they won’t have to worry about coming back from being down at half.
2. Mark Pope needs to make opponents uncomfortable (the “comfort” stat)
The Stat:
- Opponent Assists/FGM: 0.607 (Rank #328)
The Problem: This is the scariest number on the sheet. Ranking 328th in Opponent Assists/FGM means that teams are assisting on over 60% of their baskets against Kentucky. Translation: Opponents are moving the ball wherever they want to wherever they want. High assist numbers for opponents usually mean they aren’t feeling pressure and are getting the shots they want, not the ones Kentucky wants them to take. They are running their sets, hitting their cuts, and finding the open man without disruption. Kentucky ranks 203rd in forcing turnovers. In the SEC, if you let athletic teams run their offense comfortably, they will pick you apart. Kentucky has to start disrupting passing lanes and making point guards uncomfortable.
3. The Cats have to stop treating the 3-point line like a crutch
The Stat:
- 3-Point %: 33.7% (Rank #174)
- 3PA/Game: 26.0 (Rank #93)
- 2-Point %: 58.9% (Rank #31)
The Problem: Kentucky shoots the three like a Top-10 team, but they make them like a bubble team (Efficiency: #174). Meanwhile, they are elite inside the arc, ranking 31st nationally in 2-point percentage. The math says Kentucky needs to stop settling and get to the rim. They are falling in love with the deep ball when the data says their advantage is actually getting downhill and finishing or finding mid-range spots. In conference play, the perimeter windows get tighter. If the threes aren’t falling, Kentucky has to be willing to leverage that 58.9% interior efficiency instead of shooting their way into a slump.
Of course, teams will pack the paint when you can’t make a three, so they need to keep shooting. But more importantly, they have to start making it more effectively.
The Bottom Line: Wake up early, disrupt the passer, and attack the paint. If Kentucky makes those three adjustments, it can win the league. If they don’t, it’s going to be a stressful SEC season.
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Drew Holbrook has been covering the Cats for over 10 years. In his free time he enjoys downtime with his family and Premier League soccer. You can find him on X here. Micah 7:7. #UptheAlbion
