The Basics
Team: NC State Wolfpack
Location: Raleigh, North Carolina
Enrollment: 39,603
Head Coach: Dave Doeren (112-69)
Record: 2-0
Wins: ECU, UVA
Losses: N/A
Transfer portal rank: 61
The Deacs have a huge game on Thursday night against the NC State Wolfpack. While the Wolfpack have a more impressive resume with wins over ECU and Virginia, both teams sit at 2-0 and will likely be determining what their expectations
for the year will be based on the result of this one. This series has been practically even over the past 25 matchups–since the turn of the millennium, Wake is 12-13 against the Wolfpack. The Deacs stole one on the road last year with a late go-ahead touchdown, so expect NC State to be looking for some revenge in Winston on Thursday.
Offense
Points per game: 29.5 (62nd)
Yards per game: 419.5 (56th)
Run/pass split: 55/45
Rush yards per game: 160.5 (72nd)
Pass yards per game: 259.0 (42nd)
Sacks Allowed: 0.5 (13th)
Turnovers per game: 0.5 (43rd)
On offense, it is the CJ Bailey show for the Wolfpack. It seems like every other year, NC State is starting an elite QB with NFL potential, and Bailey definitely fits that mold. Along with a rocket arm and the ability to make just about any throw, the 6-6 sophomore has the speed and athleticism to be a threat scrambling or on designed runs. In 2 games this season, Bailey has completed 70% of his passes for 518 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception and has run for 65 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns.
If the Deacs allow him to sit in the pocket and get comfortable, he will pick them apart all night long. Blitzing may seem like the obvious answer, but Bailey is very good at avoiding pressure with his legs and creating big plays either with his legs or his arm.
While the Deacs have only given up about 175 yards passing per game so far this season, their first couple of opponents looked like they would struggle with the forward pass even if there was no defense on the field. This will be the first game this season where Wake will be going up against an elite QB and Power 4 receivers, so the secondary has a big test ahead of them. Hopefully they are able to lock down former Wake Forest receiver Welsey Grimes (6 rec, 154 yards, 1 TD), for obvious reasons.
On the ground, NC State also has a pretty darn good running back in redshirt sophomore Hollywood Smothers. Smothers put on a dominant performance last week against the Cavaliers, rushing for 140 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 17 carries (8.2 ypc).
Smothers is pretty similar to Demond Claiborne in that he appears to be a little undersized, but he has great speed and elusiveness that makes him a threat to score on any play. The tandem of Bailey and Smothers accounted for 184 yards rushing and 5 total TDs last week against Virginia. For the Deacs to have any chance of slowing down the Wolfpack offense, they are going to have to control the line of scrimmage in the run game and be able to make Bailey uncomfortable without having to send 6 or 7 rushers. That is not an easy task.
Defense
Points allowed per game: 24.0 (89th)
Yards allowed per game: 463.5 (124th)
Rush yards allowed per game: 143.5 (86th)
Pass yards allowed per game: 320 (132)
Sacks per game: 0.5 (123rd)
Turnovers forced per game: 0.5 (92nd)
On the defensive side, the Wolfpack defense does not appear to be the defense we have seen over the past decade or so at NC State. It has only been 2 games under new DC D.J. Eliot, but so far this season, State is allowing 463.5 yards per game with just 1 sack and 1 turnover forced. That is quite different from the hyper aggressive, dominant, NC State defenses that have given Wake–and their quarterbacks–fits in the past several years.
Maybe the best news for the Deacs is that the Wolfpack run defense has been pretty bad so far this year. Virginia RB J’Mari Taylor torched the Pack with 150 yards rushing and 3 TD’s last Saturday–Virginia ran the ball 32 times for 257 yards (8 yards per carry!) in the game.
Much like last year’s game, Wake’s gameplan should simply be to give Demond Claiborne the ball as much as possible and let him do his thing.
That being said, it’s a lot easier to run when the passing game is a threat. Virginia QB Chandler Morris completed 30 of his 43 passes for 257 yards and 1 touchdown on Saturday—that stopped State from being able to crowd the line of scrimmage and focus in on the run game. I don’t think Wake has that level of a passing attack, and it is highly unlikely that they will throw the ball anywhere near 43 times on Thursday. I would guess the Deacs will see plenty of loaded boxes where State sells out to stop the run, simply because Wake has not really proven that they can move the ball down the field through the air. That will make things much more difficult for the Wake Forest offense.
On paper, the Deacs match up pretty well with the Wolfpack, but that is definitely skewed by the massive difference in the level of opponents that Wake and State have played so far this season. I think NC State is probably the better team, but sometimes that really doesn’t matter in rivalry games. If the Deacs can get a big night from Claiborne and force a couple of turnovers, they will definitely have a shot of pulling off the upset to move to 3-0.
Go Deacs!
