We’re 4 weeks into the season and this Colts team is VERY hard to read. Most people expected a bumpy start. Opening up the year vs. Baltimore, then immediately heading to Arrowhead in primetime is a recipe for a rough couple of weeks.
The Colts parlayed their 0-2 start into 2 wins, but none of them were particularly decisive. They played a Nico Collinsless Texans team at home and then a Commanders team who was on there 3rd string QB.
In both wins, Daniel Jones has had some horrific turnovers and the
offense has lacked explosive plays. Yet, they’re 2-2 and still have the best rushing offense by EPA in the league.
1. Daniel Jones Can and Probably Will Play Better
I know every time you log onto Twitter, particularly during an NFL game, you are bound to see a lot of emotionally-driven reactions. Want to acknowledge that there is nothing wrong with that!
At the end of the day, being a fan isn’t or shouldn’t be that serious. Football is fun and there’s nothing more intense than a NFL game where every win matters and your entire mood for the week is seemingly dictated by a 60 minute game on Sundays.
Even reporters, who take immense pride in their objectivity and journalistic integrity, can let the emotional nature of a football game seep into their analysis and coverage. I am no exception either.
That being said, often times those takes aren’t rooted in logic. Benching Daniel Jones, even as horrific as he was on Sunday, is not logical.
For better or for worse, Carlie Irsay-Gordon publicly put this regime on the hot seat. Paying Daniel Jones $90 million over two years means this staff is choosing to live or die by his performance.
I know there’s a contingent of Anthony Richardson diehard supporters within the fanbase, but the staff isn’t going to save there jobs by benching the guy they just paid for the guy they already benched.
I have not been excited by how Daniel Jones has played this year, but I also know he has, can, and probably will play better. I don’t believe in “flukes”. If you show you can play at a high level in this league, it means you have that ability within you— it just might take something to unlock it again. In other words, just because Daniel Jones is playing poorly now, doesn’t mean it has to be this way for the rest of the year.
The most puzzling thing about Jones play is the turnovers. Brutal picks and fumbles have plagued Daniel for his entire career, but I don’t understand how a player can fumble as much as he has. It was a problem in New York, it was a problem during the tail end of 2025, and it’s still a problem this year.
If Daniel Jones isn’t getting strip sacked by Odafe Oweh and Will Anderson Jr., I think we’re a bit more gracious about his play this year, but those are just inexcusable turnovers.
2. To state the Obvious: The Colts are missing Alec Pierce
When Alec Pierce got the contract he did, the entire NFL world called it an overpay. Part of the reason the Colts had to back up the brink trunks was twofold. 1) the Colts front office refuses to extend ascending players early to get ahead of the market, and 2) the way the Colts handed the balancing act between the Jones and Pierce contracts seemed to blow up in there face.
That being said, schematically the Colts are in a nightmare situation without him.
The Colts are relying on an elite success rate to carry the lack of explosive plays. What made the 2025 offense so efficient, and the whole ethos of Steichen’s offense is to generate explosive plays that flip the field, thus limiting the amount of plays needed to score and limiting the exposure to turnovers, sacks, and negative plays . That’s why they drafted Anthony Richardson, and that’s why Alec Pierce got paid.
Without the explosive plays…
3. What Tyler Warren is and what he isn’t
Another causality to the loss of Alec Pierce is Tyler Warren. He is still proving to be a really good player, but fantasy owners probably aren’t as excited about his production. That’s because he is a unique player, that also has some limitations
He’s not a high volume pass catcher because he can’t run a lot of routes. He’s a straight line athlete that is explosive north and south but he’s not going to separate at the top of a route like Kelce, Bowers, McBride, Loveland, etc.
What he gives you is a good blocker with very strong hands and someone who’s extremely physical at the catch point. That makes him great in the red zone, but he’s not gonna run a pivot and gain 15 yards. He hasn’t had the chance to break as many tackles either because it’s one thing to break a tackle in open space where a DB isn’t going to bring you down, but it’s another to try and break one when the coverage is compressed and everyone is nailing down on certain routes because they aren’t threatened deep.
Outside of that bizarre drop a couple weeks ago, he’s got incredible hands and has a limited but effective route tree that probably needs to be paired with some sort of run action. He’s not a problem, but he’s probably not going to be the entire solution either. Few Tight Ends are.
4. The Colts Defense has Rebounded, but they need a real test
After a truly abysmal start to the year vs. the Chiefs and Ravens, the Colts defense settled back in vs. two offenses that were depleted and had no business dicing the Colts up. The Steelers are a small step in the direction towards giving the Colts a real test, but you have to assume the Colts should be able to limit the damage.
This is a unit that is still figuring themselves out, but great defenses never magically become great. There are some issues they have to work through.
5. Marvin Harrison Jr. is a fun story, but a bad idea
I was almost sure that the initial speculation that the Colts would trade for Marvin Harrison Jr. was false, but now we’ve gotten more reporting that the Colts are one of the teams interested in the former Ohio State WR.
I personally would love the story, but despise the idea. It’s the same fairy tale move this organization has been doing for years.
Letting your GM buy at the deadline after publicly putting him on the hot seat year after year is a bad process.
I recognize the cost may be insignificant, and the argument for trading him is to acquire a player who gives the Colts the best chance to win while potentially developing into a long-term WR, regardless of Chris Ballard’s job security.
But Chris Ballard has whiffed or traded away pieces on this roster, and the answer can’t be to convince yourself it’s ok to just buy in a sellers market to patch up the hole. (You know who’s a better option than trading away assets to get Marvin Harrison Jr.? AD Mitchell.)
Heading into Pittsburgh the Colts have a chance to get above .500 and maybe turn some heads. But there’s a long season to go and this team is not in a position to take any opponent likely. Every week will be an absolute dogfight. And if the Colts do in fact make the playoffs, it’s because they scratched and clawed for every single win to get them there. This may not be a talented team, but we’re about to find out if it’s a more mentally tough team.
