The MacKenzie Gore trade saga has become long and drawn out, but it feels like we are reaching the end game here. By the time the Winter Meetings are over, there is a good chance that Gore will not be on the Nationals.
Insider Buster Olney reported that there is a perception around the league that Gore is likely to be moved in the coming days.
With the Winter Meetings starting on Sunday, this move can really come any day now. We have made a lot of mock trades for Gore, including a hypothetical deal that would send him to Baltimore. However, the real thing seems like it is coming very soon.
Before we get into more, let’s talk a little bit about Gore’s Nationals career. Of course, the left hander came to DC in the Juan Soto trade and was a big part of the deal. Gore was the Padres 3rd overall pick back in 2017 and had an interesting climb through the Minors.
After an insane 2019 season in the Padres system, Gore was a top 5 prospect in the sport. However, his stock went down a bit after a bumpy and injury riddled 2021 campaign. He bounced back in 2022, making the big leagues. Then he was part of that package that sent Soto to San Diego.
In DC, Gore showed flashes of dominance, but has never quite put it all together. Gore would start seasons on fire before fading in the second half. His best overall season was 2024, where he posted a 3.90 ERA in 166.1 innings. After a swoon in the middle of the season, Gore got back on track in September which led to a lot of excitement entering the 2025 season.
He lived up to and even exceeded the hype early in 2025. His dominant Opening Day start was one of the best non-Max Scherzer Nats starts I have seen. Gore was just mowing down Phillies hitters on that chilly late March afternoon.
He continued that good performance into the All-Star break. Gore actually made the All-Star team, and posted a 3.02 ERA in the first half. However, things totally fell apart after that. He began to fatigue and the constant trade rumors became a distraction. Gore ended up posting a 4.17 ERA for the season, though he did strike out 185 batters in 159.2 innings.
This leads us to today, where it seems likely that new Nats POBO Paul Toboni will trade Gore. The southpaw only has two more seasons of team control and is represented by infamous super agent Scott Boras, who prefers to see his clients test the free agent market. With the Nats looking to be at least a year or two away from contention, trading Gore seems like the smart move.
There will be a lot of interest for the left hander as well. Ken Rosenthal reported that over half of the league has checked in with Paul Toboni about Gore. Despite his inconsistencies, Gore has swing and miss stuff that teams crave. There is also a perception that the Nats did not get the best out of Gore.
That potential and Gore’s two cheap years of team control allow Paul Toboni to get a big package for a guy who has been a 4 ERA guy in his career. With a curveball, slider, changeup and cutter that hitters whiff at over 35% of the time on, the pure stuff is there. A lot of teams value that stuff over pure results because they are looking at what a guy can be instead of what they are right now.
There was also a piece of news yesterday that helped the Gore market even more. It was reported that the Twins will be holding on to their stars. That means starting pitchers Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez will not be on the market. This will lead to more teams being in on Gore.
With half the league checking in on Gore, there will certainly be at least one offer that Toboni can’t refuse. There has been talk that teams are worried about the looming lockout and that could harm the value of guys with two years of team control. In the end, these teams’ desire for cheap and high quality starting pitching will win out.
Gore’s cheap team control is another thing working in the Nats favor. He is projected to make $4.7 million in arbitration this year. Given how arbitration works, that final year of team control will likely be in the $9 million range, which is also very affordable.
That opens up the market to big and small market clubs. This is why so many teams are checking in on him. The cheap price point could lead to a bidding war at the Winter Meetings. Teams like the Rays or Guardians could join in on the fun because he will be so inexpensive financially.
These factors make a trade feel pretty much inevitable. It would be borderline irresponsible to hold on to Gore. The Nats are not going to be competing for a World Series in the next two years and an extension is very unlikely. Maybe the Nats could retain him by outbidding the market in free agency, but that does not feel like a risk worth taking. Gore is also healthy right now, and that is something that can change quickly for pitchers.
Maybe Gore could have another really strong first half and boost his value, but there is also the chance he gets hurt or struggles. Teams have also seen Gore dominate in the first half before, so that would not prove much.
Now is the perfect time to trade Gore, and based on the reporting, it seems like Paul Toboni knows this. Hopefully he can get a strong package that can make the Nats better in the medium and long term. This will sting for the fans, but it is time to accept the reality of the situation.
