The 2026 season looks rough for the Miami Dolphins. They were outclassed against an NFC contender and now turn around to face Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. There is not going to be much hope to be found this season. But dagnabbit, I will squeeze what little hope I can out of this team. Just for you’uns (pronounced ‘yuns’). Like I said last week, I’m going to focus on areas that may not be major talking points elsewhere e.g. Patrick Mahomes.
3 REASONS FOR HOPE
SOMEONE CALL OSHA… BUT NOT FOR ME!
The Dolphins get their first home game
of the season and that hot Miami sun will likely be a factor. The projected weather report says mid 80s for the game, and that sun and heat will still be a factor, as it always is. Home cooking is always a positive factor in the NFL. Sure, the Dolphins fans may not be as enthusiastic about the team this year and may not pack the stadium, but home games are still beneficial to the host regardless. Last week, Miami controlled the time of possession by a slight margin overall, but considerably more in the 1st half. They held a 19:17 to 10:43 lead in TOP. They also had scoring opportunities they just didn’t capitalize on. If they can lean on the run game and control the clock in the Miami weather, the Chiefs defense will start to wear down. And in the NFL, all it takes is an opportunity or two for a big play to turn a game around.
THE CHIEFS HIT THE ROAD
The Chiefs are coming off a two primetime contests at home, including an overtime SNF contest against the Colts. Arrowhead is a notoriously dominant home field advantage, but now they must travel to the east coast to play a 1PM EST game. The Chiefs are a good team and should be favored – as they are – but road games in the NFL, even against bad teams, are still tough to win. Coach Hafley has started to get tougher on this team and he mentioned that despite the youth and talent deficiencies, they are playing harder, tougher, and with good intensity and teams are noticing that. A young, hungry team wanting to impress their coach and get him his first W of the season at home might make for a punch in the mouth the Chiefs aren’t expecting. Add that in with the weather factor, this could be a tougher out than imagined for the favored team.
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR REDEMPTION
Last week I mentioned that the 49ers did not generate much pressure against the Rams. Though the Rams have a better OL than the Dolphins, I still thought Miami had an opportunity to keep Willis cleaner than they did against the Raiders. Well, they kinda did and kinda didn’t. Willis was pressured often, mostly due to issue with one particular offensive lineman. But 2 of the sacks Willis had were him running out of bounds behind the line of scrimmage. He should have thrown the ball away if we are being honest. We can also say he’s becoming a runner at that point. But it goes on the stat sheet as a sack. The 49ers only got Willis on the ground twice and that’s with a premier pass rusher in Nick Bosa. The 49ers also don’t blitz at a high rate, so when they did, they caught the Dolphins in a bind. The Chiefs do not have a premier edge rusher. They have 3 sacks on the season, with 2 coming from the edge group. George Karlaftis III is the most productive of the group with 30.5 career sacks. Felix Anudike-Uzomah has 4 career sacks with 3 of them prior to 2026. Ashton Gillotte is a second-year player with 1.5 career sacks and R. Mason Thomas is a rookie with 1 sack on the season. The Dolphins have faced the likes of Maxx Crosby and Bosa and now get a less prominent group. That doesn’t mean they are bad and won’t generate pressure, but they haven’t proven to be the weapons the Dolphins have seen so far. They do have Chris Jones as an interior rusher, but that’s not an issue for the OTs. The Chiefs also blitz at a higher rate. They are 5th in the league at 39.4% (Miami faces Brian Flores and the Vikings next week who lead the league in blitz rate at a whopping 81.8%). The Raiders and the Niners blitz in the 22% range. Why is this fact a positive? Because the Dolphins can expect and plan for it. They can build in protections and outlets to get the ball out of Willis’ hands quicker to take advantage of the blitzes. The Chiefs have faced two QBs this season who have decent scrambling ability. But neither have the rushing ability that Willis possesses. A poorly timed blitz could get Willis out on the edge and into the secondary before they know it. It will be up to Slowik and Willis to account for this and use it wisely.
BONUS REASON: Watch this reel: https://www.instagram.com/reel/DdmCOhxkVLE/?stkn=MTlwaXcxcXpidW5tOQ==
REASONS FOR CONCERN
THE CHIEFS HAVE A RUNNING GAME
If I asked you where you think Miami falls defensively in terms of yards allowed, where do think it would be? Dead last right? Ackchyually, they are middle of the pack. They are 19th in yards allowed overall and 18th in both passing and rushing yards allowed. Given how both Vegas and San Fran tap-danced their way up and down the field, I would have thought the Dolphins would be league worst. But you know who is league worst? The Indianapolis Colts, the team the Chiefs just beat on SNF. Part of that is pass defense, but both Chiefs’ opponents this season are bottom 4 in rushing yards allowed and yards per attempt allowed. That’s because they faced off against the league’s leading rusher and reigning Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker. Walker has 290 rushing yards on 47 carries in 2 games. The Chiefs are leaning on him and he’s producing. The Dolphins quietly had a solid day against the rushing attack of the 49ers. They gave up 3 rushing TDs, but both main RBs for SF had 48 yards on 17 carries. It was QB Brock Purdy leading the way with 3 scrambles for 30 yards. This game will look more like week 1 where the Raiders leaned on Ashton Jeanty, who went 23 for 102. In a game where heat and TOP will be a factor, the Chiefs will likewise try to take advantage of it with their new weapon. The Dolphins are near the top of the league in missed tackles with only 9. The Broncos and Colts are the bottom two at 27 and 22 respectively. Some of that may be on the defenders. But Walker is tied for 2nd in the league in broken tackles with 6 and is 1st in yards after contact with 199. He is 2nd in YAC/att at 4.2. Much of the talk will be about Mahomes, but Walker is the imminent threat.
NO CALEB DOUGLAS = NO BUENO
The emergence of Caleb Douglas has been the best story from an offseason and young season that offers little in the way of positives for the Dolphins. The 49ers have a solid pass defense, and they limited Douglas to 2 catches for 19 yards, with the second catch not coming until midway into the 4Q. He’s a rookie and we expect some ups and downs. The problem is after that catch, Douglas went down with an injury, which appeared to be an ankle injury. He limped off and was walking on the sideline, so perhaps it’s not too severe. But he has not practiced yet this week. If he misses the game or is limited, the Dolphins will have little to lean on in the way of the passing game. Malik Washington has had some moments where he got open, but the Chiefs play Cover-1(man) 25.8% of the time, their highest usage of typical coverages. The Dolphins don’t have guys that can beat man coverage on a consistent basis. Douglas is their best chance. Not only that, but the Chiefs have the 4th best passing defense in terms of yards allowed and in yards per attempt allowed. They are 9th in passer rating allowed. They are tied with several teams for 3rd place with only 2 passing TDs allowed. If they stuff the Dolphins run game, the offense may not get off the ground without Douglas. The silver lining is that both TDs the Chiefs’ pass defense allowed were to TEs. Maybe this is the week for Slowik to dial up some plays for Dulcich.
YET ANOTHER PLAY CALLER TO WORRY ABOUT
Last week, the Dolphins had to deal with Kyle Shanahan. This week, the Dolphins get yet another offensive mastermind in Andy Reid. The Dolphins’ defense has so much inexperience and in a way, it’s good they face play callers like Shanahan and Reid so early in their careers. They will learn and use the tape to get better for the future. But it is painful in the moment. Last week, the Niners were 5-7 on 3rd down and didn’t have a failed conversion until the 4Q. Brock Purdy only had 2 incompletions on the day and averaged 13 YPA. Do you think Andy Reid will have some plays and looks the young Dolphins defense isn’t ready for? With a better QB and now a dominant rushing attack?
I SAID WHAT I SAID
Once again, I’m not here to push hopium on you that the Dolphins will somehow pull out a W this week. I mean, any given Sunday, but once again, it’s a case of being outclassed on both sides of the ball, especially with Douglas’ status up in the air. What we should be looking for is improvement on both sides of the ball. Can the defense hold down Kenneth Walker? Can the offense move the ball effectively again? Can they put TDs on the board instead of FGs? If so, maybe this will be a closer contest and show the Dolphins are starting to move in the right direction. Anyway, here is the weekend listen for you’uns.
