Let the good times roll for Betting the Big Ten. Just don’t look at Michigan’s record.
Week 4 had been our best week to date at 6-3. In Week 5 we did even better, going 6-2 thanks to every single under we picked hitting. Our only misses were on two overs. Maybe the strategy should just be to take unders from here on out. Spoiler alert: it won’t be because that’s no fun.
On the year we’re now a whopping 37-29-1. That’s a pretty good clip. Let’s see if we can keep it up.
The Wolverines are mercifully
on bye in Week 6 so we don’t have to agonize over whether the Michigan offense will score zero or seven points. Instead, we get a few intriguing matchups between two ranked teams (UCLA at Oregon) and what should be a ranked matchup (Indiana at Nebraska). The Cornhuskers aren’t ranked but certainly should be based on their resume.
As always, all lines are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Please bet responsibly.
Iowa at Washington (-3.5), O/U 41.5, 9 p.m. ET Friday
According to The Action Network, 86% of all bets in this matchup are on Iowa. Yet somehow, the spread has slid from Washington -1 to -3.5. This tells me that there is huge money on Washington. Say no more.
The pick: Washington -3.5
Indiana (-7.5) at Nebraska, O/U 49.5, Noon ET Saturday
As I mentioned above, it’s a bit disrespectful that Nebraska isn’t ranked despite being 5-0 with five blowout wins. While they haven’t played anyone of note, they’ve done just about everything you can given the schedule. While I don’t like Nebraska to pull off the upset here, Vegas knows something here with the spread being so small against the defending National Champions. Additionally, the Cornhuskers are 4-1 ATS while Indiana is just 1-4.
The pick: Nebraska +7.5
Ball State at Northwestern (-36.5), O/U 52.5, 12:30 p.m. ET
Raise your hand if you thought the Wildcats would be the biggest favorites in the Big Ten in Week 6 of the season? Well here we are. Like the Iowa vs. Washington matchup, the bet percentage in this matchup isn’t following the money. 77% of all bets are on Ball State yet the spread keeps sliding towards Northwestern. Give me the Wildcats.
The pick: Northwestern -36.5
UCLA at Oregon (-11.5), O/U 58.5, 3:30 p.m. ET
UCLA has been the most pleasant surprise in the conference this season. However, the 11.5-point spread in this one is tough. I like Oregon to win handily but UCLA is 4-0 ATS which scares me a bit. Instead, I’m looking at the total. Oregon has gone over in all four of their matchups while UCLA is 3-1 at going over. 7-1 for the over is a very strong trend.
The pick: Over 58.5
Illinois (-2.5) at Michigan State, O/U 47.5, 3:30 p.m. ET
Only true college football sickos will be watching this matchup. Illinois nearly always hits the over (4-1) while Michigan State is nearly always under the total (1-4). Both are middling against the spread as well so there isn’t much to go off of here. With admittedly little data to back this up, I’ll go with Illinois as the Fighting Illini at 1-0 ATS on the road and MSU is 1-2 ATS at home.
The pick: Illinois -2.5
Maryland at Ohio State (-34.5), O/U 56.5, 4:15 p.m. ET
In the past five matchups between these two programs, Ohio State is 5-0 with only one of those games being within single-digits. However, the common theme is points, points, points. The totals between these two teams in the past five matchups against each other are 103, 87, 83, 73, and 54. Only one of those would be below the 56.5 that this total is currently at. Give me the over.
The pick: Over 56.5
USC at Penn State (-1.5), O/U 54.5, 7:30 p.m. ET
On Sunday, USC was favored in this matchup by 2.5 points. Since that time, the spread has shifted 4 points the opposite direction. This is such a rat line as there’s no reason Penn State should be favored after playing some objectively terrible football the past two weeks. However, I’m eating the cheese, especially since the spread crossed the bridge.
The pick: Penn State -1.5
Minnesota (-2.5) at Purdue, O/U 50.5, 8 p.m. ET
There’s no more damning stat for Michigan’s stunning defeat to Minnesota than that of this spread. After what P.J. Fleck called one of the best days of his life, his Golden Gophers are now favored by just 2.5 points against cellar-dwelling Purdue. What’s worse is that there is big money on the Boilermakers to cover here. 77% of all bets are on Minnesota yet the spread has dropped from 6.5 down to 2.5. Something’s brewing in West Lafayette.
